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    2019 Fantasy Football: Three reasons why you should pass on Patrick Mahomes

    Finishing as the NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes was far and away the best fantasy football quarterback to own in 2018. There are reasons, however, why you should avoid him in your 2019 drafts.

    Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ended up being the Most Valuable Player in the NFL for 2018 and most likely your fantasy football roster. Mahomes was the second most found player on championship rosters behind Christian McCaffrey via ESPN. Mahomes set league records and came at an ultimate value with his average draft position (ADP) at 121 last year.  Unfortunately, he will come at a much higher cost this year and with all signs pointing towards regression, I think you should pass on Patrick Mahomes this season.  Here are three of the reasons why.

    Draft Cost

    Mahomes comes with a cost now. A really big cost. According to FantasyPros, his current ADP is 24th overall, which puts him as a second-round pick on average in 12-team fantasy football leagues. Yes, Mahomes is the current MVP and the clear number one quarterback going into the 2019 fantasy football season, but you have to ask yourself, is he worth that kind of draft capital?

    To answer that, take Mahomes in some mock drafts ahead of your actual fantasy draft and see how your team turns out. Mock all types of different strategies to see what you like the most. Doing more mocks will give you a more definitive answer.

    There’s no doubt that Mahomes will have another terrific season, but his ADP is based primarily off of last season’s success. He is currently being drafted at his ceiling and even if he is 80 or 90% as productive as last year, you will still be disappointed.

    Regression

    History says that Mahomes is about to regress. His 8.6% touchdown rate last year was the fourth highest in NFL history. Only six quarterbacks have ever made it over seven percent. If we gave Mahomes seven percent on the same number of attempts (580), his touchdowns would drop to 40, which is still very good. More than likely, it puts him in the argument for a second MVP award.

    This certainly still puts him in the top 12 of fantasy quarterbacks for the year and maybe even at number one. Unfortunately, this would not give him a massive advantage over the next tier of quarterbacks that you could get a round or several rounds cheaper. An important note to remember is that there have only been three quarterbacks to ever throw for 50 TDs in a season, and no one has ever repeated.  The regression is coming and the worst thing you can do in fantasy football pays for last year’s stats.

    Format

    Unless you are in a Superflex format, quarterbacks are less valuable due to the depth at the position. Some fantasy football players may see that they score the most points and think they should be drafted higher. This is a rookie mistake.

    Last year was a perfect example. There were more than 40 different quarterbacks that posted a top 12 quarterback performance. In the end, all of the top quarterbacks at the end of the season were all drafted round nine or later. The reality is that when you are starting 2-4 RBs a week and 2-4 WRs a week, you can’t afford to spend a top pick on a quarterback.

    Last year, Mahomes was drafted on average at the 10.10 position, Matt Ryan at 9.12, and Ben Roethlisberger at 10.07. These three finished as the top quarterbacks in fantasy football for 2018. Other top performances such as Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, among others, were all drafted after them. The position is extremely deep with big names available in round eight and beyond. Drafting a quarterback in this range allows you to have a much more balanced roster.  Check out our late-round quarterbacks’ article coming soon for some targets this draft season.

    Good luck in all of your drafts, please follow Pro Football Network on Twitter @PFN365 and subscribe to stay ahead of the competition.

    David Heilman is a writer and Co-Director of Fantasy Football content at Pro Football Network. You can follow him @DynastyDorksDave and @DynastyDorks Twitter accounts.

     

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