There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games.
Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: What line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.
Last week’s plays (including the PFN Discord plays) went 8-4-1, winning 3.22 units. Currently, we are sitting at 97-73, +22.22 units on the season.
We are hitting our stride as we cross into the second half of the season. The last three weeks have been consistently positive. Let’s keep the train rolling in Week 11.
To get my weekly NFL prop bets as soon as I place my bets, you can find them in the betting channel on the official PFN Discord or by following me on Pikkit @KatzFF.
Davis Mills Under 223.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
I was on Davis Mills’ under last week, and he soared over due to negative game script. I don’t regret the pick, and we’re going right back to it this week.
MORE: NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions
Mills does have two 300-yard passing games in his last five. In the other three, he’s thrown for between 140 and 154 yards. That’s more of what I’m expecting this week.
The Commanders allow 212.7 passing yards per game. But more importantly, I expect the Texans to win this game. That means mostly neutral game script, which should keep the ball in Dameon Pierce’s hands, and Mills under this number.
- My line
223.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
222.5 -115 (BetRivers) - Lowest I’d go
220.5
Joe Burrow Over 252.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
This is yet another prop we’re going back to the well on after it failed last time. With Joe Burrow, it was two weeks ago when I expected the Bengals to come out blasting. Instead, Joe Mixon dominated, scoring five touchdowns. Thus, Burrow didn’t need to do much, attempting just 28 passes and throwing for just 206 yards.
This week, Burrow gets a Steelers defense allowing the third-most passing yards allowed per game. I’m also buying into a bit of a revenge narrative, as the Bengals are eager to avenge their Week 1 home loss.
This is a team that leads the NFL in neutral game script pass rate at 69%. I think there’s a real shot Burrow is over 200 by halftime.
- My line
252.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
252.5 -117 (BetRivers) - Highest I’d go
255.5
Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +185 (DraftKings)
The majority of my NFL prop bets are within 20-30 cents of even money. I don’t typically take heavily juiced favorites, and I don’t typically take larger underdogs. However, I really like Daniel Jones to throw at least two passing touchdowns this week.
The Lions allow 1.67 passing touchdowns per game, the seventh-most in the league. I think the Giants score at least three touchdowns in this game, more likely four. Is Saquon Barkley really going to run them all in?
Even if the Giants go run-heavy, when they get near the goal line, Jones can easily end up throwing a couple in. This one is roughly 50-50, and we’re getting close to +200.
- My line
+185 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Lowest price I’d take
+175
Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Interceptions -115 (DraftKings)
Normally, I’m an eternal pessimist when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys. I can evaluate the games objectively, but I never expect them to win when they really need to. This week, I am supremely confident the Cowboys win this game.
I expect the defense to play inspired football after collapsing in the fourth quarter last week against Aaron Rodgers. As such, Kirk Cousins may be in for a rough day.
Cousins has thrown three picks in his last two games. He’s thrown at least one interception in four of his last six. The Cowboys haven’t recorded an interception in two straight games for the first time all season. I don’t think they make that three.
- My line
-115 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest price I’d pay
-120
Michael Pittman Jr. Longest Reception Under 20.5 Yards -110 (BetMGM)
Death. Taxes. Michael Pittman’s longest reception under. Eventually, we’ll lose this bet. It’s inevitable. But I will take it every week until that happens.
Pittman still has just three receptions over 20 yards all season. He has none since September 25. I’m not quite sure why this line remains 20.5 every week. Pittman’s average depth of target is 6.4 yards, 90th in the league. Unless his usage changes, this will remain a weekly staple.
- My line
20.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Current line
Same - Lowest I’d go
20.5
Melvin Gordon III Over 10.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)
I feel like every time I look at a running back’s receiving yards line as appearing too low, he ends up not catching a pass. Well, here we go again.
Melvin Gordon III has nine receptions over his last three games. He’s posted receiving yardage totals of 46, 23, and 17.
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Gordon has gone over this line in every game where he’s played at least 38% of the snaps. The only times he didn’t were the two games where he got de facto benched, and one random game in Week 2.
The Raiders allow a 23.75% target share to running backs. 19.9% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. Gordon is the primary receiving back ahead of Latavius Murray and the newly acquired Chase Edmonds. He should be able to exceed this number.
- My line
10.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Current line
9.5 -120 (BetMGM) - Highest I’d go
10.5
DJ Moore Under 52.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)
This one doesn’t have to be complicated. D.J. Moore averages 64.2 yards per game with PJ Walker under center and 36.8 with Baker Mayfield.
Moore has surpassed 50 receiving yards exactly three times all season… all of them with Walker. This line does not accurately reflect the impact Mayfield has. The only caveat I will offer is if Mayfield gets benched for Sam Darnold at halftime, we will probably lose. But I’ll take that chance.
- My line
52.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Current line
52.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Lowest I’d go
50.5
Darnell Mooney Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -115 (BetMGM)
This line is curiously low, which should give me pause. I just can’t help myself. The trends are too favorable.
Darnell Mooney has at least 43 receiving yards in seven consecutive games. He has a 28% target share and an 11.6 average depth of target. The Falcons have the worst pass defense in the league, and they allow 201.1 yards per game to wide receivers, the most in the league
Although the Bears are quite run-heavy, the Falcons are extremely vulnerable through the air. Even on just 20 pass attempts, Justin Fields should hit Mooney enough to surpass this number.
- My line
43.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Current line
45.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Highest I’d go
45.5
Alvin Kamara Under 64.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
This number seems very high for a bad offense facing a good run defense. The Rams allow just 86 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara has only gotten to 65 rushing yards or more in two games this season, and he’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
Over his last two games, Kamara hasn’t seen double-digit carries. The volume isn’t there. The efficiency isn’t there. Kamara just isn’t the same player he’s been for the past half-decade. Yet, this number is priced as if he is.
The Rams average 30.6 seconds between snaps, the third-slowest rate in the league. The Saints average 28.8 seconds between snaps, which is middle of the pack. This should be a slow-paced, run-heavy game, especially with the Rams now operating without Cooper Kupp.
- My line
64.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
60.5 -125 (PointsBet) - Lowest I’d go
60.5
Andy Dalton Under 214.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Andy Dalton has made seven starts this season. He’s gone over this number three times. Two of those games were 50+ point shootouts. We’re probably not getting that against the Rams with a total under 40.
Dalton hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in three straight games, and he threw for 174 and 210 yards in his last two. The Rams allow 211 passing yards per game.
Everything I said in the Kamara section applies here as well.
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There’s also the added possibility that Dalton gets benched for Jameis Winston at halftime. Dalton is 2-5 as a starter, and the Saints have lost two straight and four of their last five. Dalton has thrown six picks in his last four games.
Quite frankly, I’m surprised the Saints haven’t turned back to Winston yet. If they do, Dalton obviously goes well under here.
- My line
214.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
212.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Lowest I’d go
210.5
Andy Dalton Under 30.5 Pass Attempts -115 (DraftKings)
See previous section.
- My line
30.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
30.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Lowest I’d go
30.5
Allen Robinson II Under 49.5 Receiving Yards -119 (Caesars)
Evidently, I have a lot of props in this game. Allen Robinson II’s receiving total is set at its highest number since Week 1. This is because he’s the presumptive WR1 in a post-Cooper Kupp world.
I just don’t buy that Robinson’s usage will increase at all. He caught four of six targets for 44 yards last week, and he’s gone over this number just three times all season. I’m expecting the biggest beneficiaries to be Ben Skowronek and this next guy.
- My line
49.5 -119 (Caesars) - Current line
Same - Lowest I’d go
48.5
Tyler Higbee Over 4.5 Receptions -115 (DraftKings)
The only piece of the Rams’ passing game I actually like this week is Tyler Higbee. He is now Matthew Stafford’s most trusted target. He caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards last week, and that was with John Wolford at QB. I don’t think the game plan will change.
I don’t know if Higbee will be the most efficient, but look for designed plays to the veteran tight end where the Rams try and get him the ball quickly. That should allow him to rack up 3-4 receptions in the first half, putting him in prime position to hit this over in the third quarter.
- My line
4.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
4.5 -120 (BetMGM) - Highest I’d go
4.5 -125
Davante Adams Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)
The Raiders have a broken offense right now. They’ve scored 20 points in their last two games and zero in the game before that. The lone bright spot has been Davante Adams. In his last two games, Adams has 126 and 146 receiving yards.
The star wideout can certainly get to those numbers again. He’s that talented. But the Broncos are really good against the pass and even better against the deep ball.
MORE: NFL Survival Pool Picks Week 11
Adams has six receptions over 23.5 yards on the season. Against the Broncos in Week 4, Adams caught nine of 13 targets for 101 yards. However, he did not catch a pass longer than 20 yards. The Broncos allow just a 34% completion percentage on deep balls.
Adams may have a nice game, but he is more likely to get there with volume than efficiency.
- My line
23.5 -120 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Lowest I’d go
23.5
Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props
Last week, for the first time, I decided to share my touchdown props, and they went 2-1, winning 1.15 units. I don’t consider touchdown props as part of my official record, but I do track the ones I bet, and they’re 11-10, +9.7 units on the season. It can’t hurt to keep sharing them, right?
- Cordarrelle Patterson +135 (Caesars)
- Ezekiel Elliott +106 (Caesars)
