There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.
With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay Packers Bold Fantasy Prediction: Christian Watson Stays Healthy and Finishes as a WR1
My favorite archetype of receiver to invest in is the sophomore receiver coming off a very efficient rookie year. That led me to Drake London and Christian Watson last season. It didn’t work out.
What if I was just a year early? There’s a reason Watson was highly touted last season. He averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie on limited volume.
Last season, Watson averaged 11.3 PPG. He wasn’t much worse, but he just couldn’t stay healthy. We’ve since found out the root cause of the issue — asymmetry with his hamstrings. Unfortunately, he has already hurt his hamstring this year, so hopefully he can avoid another occurrence of this injury.
Jordan Love has emerged as one of the better QBs in the league. Say he takes another step forward while Watson stays healthy, and the two develop a strong rapport, and Watson establishes himself as the Packers’ top receiver. Catching 70 passes for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns puts him in contention to be a WR1 and is within the range of outcomes.
Christian Watson Fantasy Profile
Watson was one of the most difficult players to assess heading into the 2023 season. His 2.4 yards per route run as a rookie was 12th in the league. That was very encouraging. However, he only commanded a 15.2% target share. His seven touchdowns on 41 receptions was clearly an unsustainable level of efficiency.
Since sophomore WRs are such good investments, there was more to like about Watson last season than not. Unfortunately, the “not” won out.
Watson was one of the worst picks in fantasy last year. He continued to battle lingering hamstring issues, limiting him to just nine games played. The fact that he managed to average 11.3 fantasy points per game is actually pretty impressive.
That has made Watson a tricky player to figure out once again.
Watson scored 6.3 fantasy points or fewer in four of his nine games last season. In three others, he scored 10.5, 11.6, and 10.2. Based purely on these numbers alone, we shouldn’t care about Watson. But it’s those last two games that really entice us to give him a chance.
In Weeks 11 and 12 — which were also likely Watson’s two healthiest weeks all season — he scored 20.4 and 27.6 fantasy points. They provided a stark reminder of what Watson can do at his best.
There are two issues with Watson always being at his best, though. The first and most obvious one is the hamstring issues. On that front, there is reason for optimism.
The Packers had Watson do some offseason testing to figure out the root cause of his hamstring problems. They determined it was due to significant asymmetry in the strength of his hamstrings. Knowing one hamstring was much weaker than the other, Watson has been able to work to get them closer together in strength, which should help prevent the constant strains.
Anyone who rostered Watson last season would likely tell you the hamstring issues were the main problem. This year, the second issue seems more likely to prevent Watson from breaking out.
The Packers have a lot of useful wide receivers. There may not be a clear alpha or target leader, but they have arguably five guys who are good enough to be at least the WR3 on most NFL teams. I don’t think there’s another team in the league that can say that.
If healthy, Watson will have his days, as we saw last season. So will Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and even Bo Melton. This is a deep group and one where it’s easy to see no one playing more than 70% of the snaps on a regular basis.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Christian Watson right here.
