The 2025 NBA Conference Finals are upon us, and the matchups are taking viewers by surprise. At the top of the order, we have the Oklahoma City Thunder, who will take on the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the West, while the third-seeded New York Knicks and fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers go head to head in the East.
But are these truly the most unpredictable conference finals ever? Before the finals kick off on June 5, we’re ranking the 10 least expected conference finals from the recent history of the NBA.
Top 10 Least Expected Conference Finals Matchups in Modern NBA History
10) No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves, 2025 (West)
It would not be recency bias to state that this season’s Western Conference Finals definitely make the list. Parity within the league is at an all-time high after the era of player movements, the new CBA, and the highest level of player skill the NBA has ever seen.
With that being said, it wasn’t necessarily a surprise that the Thunder have reached this point. It’s not the same case for Minnesota, which upset the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers in just five games. They dismantled a team led by superstars Luka Dončić and LeBron James, largely with a ferocious defensive attack and a deep rotation.
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They then did the same to the Golden State Warriors, who unfortunately lost Stephen Curry during Game 1. The Wolves breezed through the next four games, bringing them to their second straight surprise WCF run.
9) No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 6 Houston Rockets, 1995 (West)
The Houston Rockets carry this one, as they made a surprise run through the West by defeating the third-seeded Utah Jazz and second-seeded Phoenix Suns. But the reason they landed with the No. 6 seed is because of their performance prior to the trade deadline. In other words, before Houston acquired former Portland Trail Blazers guard Clyde Drexler.
Drexler pairing up with Hakeem Olajuwon proved to be a problem for the West and the NBA as a whole. The Rockets went on to beat the San Antonio Spurs in six games before shocking the East’s top team, sweeping the Orlando Magic and claiming the 1995 NBA title.
8) No. 3 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 4 Dallas Mavericks, 2022 (West)
It wasn’t much of a surprise for the Curry-led Warriors to cruise by the young, second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies on the way to the WCF. But it did come as a major surprise that the Dallas Mavericks, led then by Dončić, got through the 64-win and reigning NBA Finals runner-up Phoenix Suns.
They capped off their second-round series victory by jumping out to a 57-27 halftime lead on the road in Game 7, with Dončić scoring 30 points of his own. Mind you, they were 6.5-point underdogs, and many considered the Mavericks lucky to even push the series to seven games.
7) No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks, 2024 (West)
Dončić once again led a run through the Western Conference, defeating the No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers in six games in Round 1 and then doing the same against the top-seeded, 57-win Thunder. While that was certainly unexpected, Dončić and the Mavs had done this before.
The Timberwolves had not, which made their 20-point second-half comeback in Game 7 of their second-round series against the No. 2-seeded and defending champion Denver Nuggets that much sweeter. In fact, it was their first Western Conference Finals appearance in 20 years.
6) No. 3 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 4 Utah Jazz, 2007 (West)
The Jazz were a good team, and the Spurs were great — as they won this series and promptly swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, claiming the 2007 championship. But it’s what happened outside of these two teams that was so unexpected.
The Mavericks, led by MVP Dirk Nowitzki, had dominated the regular season on their way to posting a 67-15 record — at the time, the fifth-most wins in a season in NBA history. But they ran into the eighth-seeded “We Believe” Warriors, who stunned Dallas in six games. That opened the door for the Jazz, who beat Golden State in five games, and the Spurs, who went all the way.
5) No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers, 2025 (East)
These are also two teams that don’t tell the full story. The Knicks shocked the NBA world by beating the Boston Celtics in six games. The Pacers, meanwhile, took advantage of the trio of Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and De’Andre Hunter missing Game 2 and not being at full strength for the rest of the five-game series.
Though both of these teams are well tested and undoubtedly deserving of their spot in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, it’s worth looking back at the fine print in determining the full story of how they got here.
4) No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Phoenix Suns, 1990 (West)
The Portland Trail Blazers were favorites in the semifinals against the Spurs, but the Suns were heavy underdogs against the top-seeded Lakers in their second-round matchup. Los Angeles entered the series having sent three players (all starters) to the 1990 All-Star game: Magic Johnson, James Worthy, and A.C. Green.
The Suns had two All-Stars of their own: Tom Chambers and Kevin Johnson. But while the two were exceptional in the series, Portland came away as WCF champions, winning it in six games.
3) No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks, 2021 (East)
Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks reached this point in 2021 after winning Game 7s on the road — enough of an unexpected outcome in itself.
However, the disappearing act that Ben Simmons pulled off for the No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers could not have been seen. His complete lack of aggression in scoring the ball allowed the Hawks’ defense to surge them to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
The Bucks pulled out their victory over the No. 2 Brooklyn Nets thanks to Kevin Durant’s unfortunately long toe that made his deep shot at the regulation buzzer, a game-tying two-pointer instead of a game- and series-winning 3-pointer. Milwaukee’s six points in the overtime period were enough, as they held the exhausted Nets to just two.
2) No. 2 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 8 New York Knicks, 1999 (East)
The Knicks-Pacers playoff lore starts here, as the Knicks made a widely unexpected run through the East. It began against the No. 1 Miami Heat, whom they bested in Game 5 of the best-of-five series thanks to a 22-point, 11-rebound effort by Patrick Ewing, helping them eke out a one-point victory.
MORE: Top 10 Biggest Blowout Losses in NBA Playoffs History
The Knicks weren’t satisfied, though, as they swept the Hawks before meeting Indiana. Ewing and the Knicks proved to be too much for the Reggie Miller-led Pacers, defeating them in six games and tying for the lowest-seeded NBA Finals team in league history.
1) No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat, 2023 (East)
Topping the list has to be the incredible run that the Heat made through the East in 2023.
It all began in the play-in tournament, where they lost at home by 11 points against the Hawks, losing the opportunity to be the seventh seed. Then, they managed to erase a six-point Bulls lead midway through the fourth quarter to claim the East’s No. 8 seed.
From there, Jimmy Butler III put together a postseason run for the ages, averaging 37.6 points against the No. 1 Bucks, eliminating them in five games. Then, he spearheaded a six-game series victory over the fifth-seeded Knicks to make it to the conference finals.
The Celtics, who were expected to make it to this point, were also taken out by Butler’s excellence. Losing in Game 7 at home allowed Miami to reach its second appearance in the Finals in three seasons.
