And then there were eight. Seeding in the Eastern Conference has held as expected and the remaining four teams in the West all have the star power that makes them a difficult team to pick against on any single night, let alone for an entire series. As good as Round 1 was, the NBA playoffs project to be even more competitive in Round 2, so let’s jump in and see who projects favorably.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 4 Denver Nuggets
Thunder Round 1: Swept the Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City won their two home games in the first round in convincing fashion (cumulative score: 249-179) before a couple of dramatic victories in Memphis. There was never any doubt as to who the better team in that series was, but we did see some accuracy issues pop up (10 missed free throws in Game 3 and 20% shooting from deep in Game 4).
Their defensive rating declined with each passing game, but if you’re worried about this team’s buy-in on that end of the floor, you haven’t been paying attention. Across those four games, they had a 9% turnover rate while forcing the Grizz to hand them the ball on 16.7% of possessions
The offensive floor for this team is close to unmatched thanks to how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays, and their defensive ceiling is remarkably high due to their versatility across the board. The Thunder entered the postseason as the favorites to win it all, and nothing from Round 1 has changed that sentiment.
Nuggets Round 1: Beat the Clippers in seven games
Denver was able to avoid a Game 7 elimination at home, something they weren’t able to do a season ago, though their series with Los Angeles was all over the place (three of the final five games were decided by 16+ points). This team is far from flawless, but they have the best player in the world, and they have enough in the way of supporting upside to make them an interesting evaluation.
- Russell Westbrook, Games 5-7: 51 points, 18-34 shooting (7-14 from 3)
- Christian Braun, Games 6-7: 35 points on 13-22 shooting (5-9 from 3)
Those two, in my opinion, are the reason this team is still playing basketball. Nikola Jokic is going to do his thing nightly, and playoff Jamal Murray is a heat check waiting to happen, but if this backcourt proves to have reasonable depth, there’s championship-level pedigree in a best-case scenario.
Of course, the worst-case scenario needs to be considered as well. Aaron Gordon and especially Michael Porter Jr. are at far less than full strength. They’ve shown the ability to turn it on for spurts when called upon, but that’s a tough sell moving forward. If the quarter of Gordon/Porter Jr./Braun/Westbrook is handling only their same cumulative workload from the regular season, even if the responsibilities are redistributed a bit, I’m not sure that even the greatness of Jokic can save them.
Series Predictions and Bets
Michael Porter Jr. unders.
He looked healthy-ish just enough in Round 1 to give us a little bit of a buying window in Round 2, and I’m not going to hesitate to fire.
Watching him play, I wonder what his post-game routine looks like. Multiple injections? Is his time in the training room longer than the real time length of a playoff game (not 48 minutes, the 2.5-ish hours that it takes to complete)?
He’s not exactly a high-energy, attacking player in the first place, but now a single skill is all he really offers, and a machine of a defense is awaiting him.
This regular season, the Thunder were third best in points per spot-up shot allowed and have been even better this postseason. They were the very best team in the league at limiting transition frequency (in part because of the fouls they create on the other end) – if Porter Jr. isn’t getting skip passes in a spot-up fashion or finding space on the run, how is he going to get clean looks?
Porter Jr. Splits
- Postseason: 16.0 front court touches, 2.4 paint touches, 1.0 drives
- Regular Season: 28.7 front court touches, 3.9 paint touches, 2.8 drives
He gutted out 229 minutes against the Clippers, but it can be painful to watch at times. Across those minutes, he got to the stripe eight times and had five assists – there’s just not enough offensive aggression to back his props and, to be honest, I’m not sure that his minute count remains as high as it was over the past two weeks.
Any blowout is going to work in our favor – Denver needs to save every Porter Jr. bullet that they have, so he’s likely to be the first player to get the early hook if (when) a game in Oklahoma City gets away from them. We have a lot of paths to cashing this betting strategy as long as the price remains how it’s opened and I’m not wasting time to profit.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. under 17.5 points + rebounds for as long as we get that line
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Timberwolves Round 1: Beat the Lakers in five games
Was there a more impressive team in Round 1 than the Minnesota Timberwolves?
The Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics were all much more dominant, but in terms of playing above expectations and answering every call, the ‘Wolves were the team, for me at least, that were the big winners from the first round of the 2025 playoffs.
In their five game, systematic dismantling of the Lakers, they had a different leading scorer four times, held Los Angeles under 100 points three times, twisted JJ Redick into a pretzel due to picking at the weaknesses of this roster with force, and executed at an elite level when it mattered most.
- Game 1: 23-17, Timberwolves
- Game 2: 20-13, Timberwolves
- Game 3: 30-20, Timberwolves
- Game 4: 32-19, Timberwolves
- Game 5: 22-16, Timberwolves
Those were the fourth quarter scores of Round 1, this Minnesota team proving that when the chips are in the middle of the table, they are capable of digging in at nothing short of an elite level.
Anthony Edwards (26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists) is getting all of the flowers he deserves as his play was even better than those gaudy numbers suggest, but it was the overall team buy-in on the defensive side of the ball that impressed me most.
Jayden McDaniels played like what he is and that’s one of the better defenders in this league while Rudy Gobert held up in drop coverage, Donta DiVincenzo average two steals, and Julius Randle overcame 1-2 boneheaded plays per game to be a physical force in what appeared to be a tough matchup on paper.
This isn’t the most talented team remaining, but they are as versatile as anyone left in the bracket and with Edwards operating at this level, nothing this team does on a game-to-game basis should surprise anyone.
Warriors Round 1: Beat the Rockets in seven games
It was a battle. It wasn’t pretty. But the Warriors took the Rockets’ best punch and survived.
Did I love them losing two of three at home? Or their struggles to get consistent production from the bench?
Of course not, but this team has the heart of a champion and when the game is on the line, they know what to do. Buddy Hield’s 33 points on 15 shots stole the show on Sunday night, but Stephen Curry’s ability to impact the game against an athletic defense that’s sole design was to limit him was what impressed me the most and what will prove vital if the Warriors are going to pull off an upset in the second round.
The future Hall of Famer not only flirted with a triple double, he committed just two turnovers despite athletic bodies flying at him from all angles for all of his 46 minutes.
This is no longer the light-up-the-scoreboard team that was dynastic, but it doesn’t matter. This Houston series was a nice tune up for what awaits Golden State – do they have enough stamina to deal with a rested ‘Wolves team?
Series Predictions and Bets
I don’t think so.
The Warriors failed to reach 105 points in the majority of their Round 1 games and I worry that such a fate could await them in this round as well. The problem? Minnesota has similar length and athleticism to throw at this shallow Golden State team, but with a top-12 eFG% offense, not the bottom-10 unit that Houston possessed.
They were able to advance in part because the Rockets had a blend of athleticism and experience, but no player had both.
Enter Anthony Edwards.
The Warriors were on the ropes in Round 1 against a team that has potential, but is rarely going to win the math battle. The Rockets rank 27th in three-point rate while the Timberwolves rank sixth – the higher volume of triples figures to pay off stingy defense in a way this series that it didn’t last round.
The Rockets impressed with extended periods of elite defense and slowing down the Warriors is no small accomplishment, but if you’re not throwing punches on the other end, you’re simply delaying an inevitable run that always seems to come with the gravity that Curry creates.
Jalen Green led Houston in scoring this regular season but didn’t reach double figures in any of their playoff losses.
Green is good. Edwards is great.
I suspect we see the difference in this series, one that I fear might not last too long.
Pick: Timberwolves to advance (-160, DraftKings) and to cover 1.5 games (+135)
No.1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No.4 Indiana Pacers
Cavaliers Round 1: Swept the Heat
The first round was competitive across the league, but Cleveland’s lambasting of Miami wasn’t a part of that. The East’s top-seed cleared 120 points in all four games and didn’t allow more than 100 points in three of them (series score: 504-382, that means if you gave Miami five more quarters, at their scoring pace, with the possession count remaining the same but Cleveland not attempting a single shot, they would have still be outscored for the series).
It was domination in every sense of the word. The defense has been pretty stable when this team is at full capacity with their two-bigs lineup, and the fact that this was the most efficient offense in the sport during the regular season gets overlooked a bit due to the Celtics chasing a repeat and the Thunder being historically good. Against the Heat, the Cavs scored over 1.37 points per possession in Games 1-3-4, matching their total of such performances during the entire regular season.
Cleveland forced a turnover on over 13.5% of Miami possessions in all four contests, a streak they didn’t match during the regular season, further proof that the upside here is that of an NBA champion.
Darius Garland’s toe injury (two missed games in Round 1 and Game 1 in Round 2) is something to watch, but there’s some hope that he’s at least going to try to return sooner rather than later. The depth of this roster is what makes this squad uniquely dangerous, and that was on display in Round 1. Jarrett Allen had three double doubles (21-27 FG, 15-15 FT), Ty Jerome nearly posted a 50-40-90 shooting split in 23 minutes per game, and De’Andre Hunter averaged 17.3 PPG (eight-of-13 from 3) in the final three games of the series. Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are elite options that can take over games, though the value of depth was clear last week and will be critical if this team wants to represent the East.
Pacers Round 1: Beat the Bucks in five games
Copy paste.
We are looking at an eerily similar trajectory from the Pacers to what we saw a year ago. In Round 1, 2023, their four wins against the Bucks came by a total of 55 points and featured an overtime win at home. This time around, +54 points in the victories with an overtime in Game 5 to close things out.
Indiana showed resilience with the 20-point comeback in the final game of the series and had seven players average in double figures with nobody reaching the 20 PPG plateau. We’ve seen the postseason take a pound of flesh from most offenses this year, but not the Pacers. Against Milwaukee, their offensive rating was 2.9% higher than what they posted during the regular season, and while that was against a lesser quality team, it’s impressive given how the game is officiated this time of year.
Even in the dominating effort against Milwaukee, Indiana allowed north of 1.1 points per possession in each of the final four games of the series, a fatal flaw if it can’t be rectified in short order.
Indiana was able to advance past the Knicks in Round 2 last season despite not having home court advantage, and that is the challenge they face this year, but this time against a top-tier team that won 34 of 41 home games this regular season.
Series Predictions and Bets
There’s basketball and then there’s playoff basketball. The Pacers are a strong team that thrives in their isolated environment, but the Cavaliers are a strong team that can be chameleon-like and win in a variety of ways due to their versatile rotation.
Generally speaking, this time of year sees tempo take a step back and halfcourt offensive execution elevate in importance. I have zero concerns about Cleveland in this regard (8-1 in their nine slowest games this regular season with wins over the Celtics and Knicks included in that sample), but Indiana is a different story.
- November 8, 20-point loss at Charlotte: Their sixth slowest game of the season
- February 4, 23-point loss at Portland: Their 10th slowest game of the season
- February 28, 5-point loss at Miami: Their slowest game of the season
I don’t doubt that the Pacers can have their 15 minutes of fame in this series and lead the talk shows with an upset win, but I’m different than the sportsbooks and believe that the other series in the East is the more likely one to see an upset.
Betting Cleveland to advance is fine, but that’s more juice than most like to lay for a bet that could take two weeks to settle. Instead, I have my eyes on embracing variance.
I anticipate that my team rankings would have the Cleveland/Boston series closer than the sportsbooks, so the fact that I think there’s a better chance that they draw the Knicks than there is of them not making it to the East Finals has me investing in them to win at least eight more times this postseason.
And no, I’m not sweating the Game 1 loss. In a game where Darius Garland sat (tracking this situation, but hoping for the best) and Indiana was +30 points from 3-point land despite two fewer triple tries, the score was 107-104 with under five minutes to go.
Pick: Cavaliers to win the East (+225, DraftKings)
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 New York Knicks
Celtics Round 1: Beat the Magic in five games
Boston was never truly in any danger of failing to advance, but Orlando certainly took their pound of flesh and potentially outlined a blueprint?
Four of the games were within two possessions through 24 minutes and while the second-seeded Celtics largely distanced themselves (every win came by at least nine points), it wasn’t as convincing as most assumed it would be.
Orlando was successful in chasing Boston off the three-point line better than just about anyone over the past 18 months. For the series, the C’s had a 40% three-point rate, down from 53.6% during the regular season. Instead of Joe Mazzulla and company figuring out a way to get into their flow, it was the Magic who executed better as the season wore on. Boston failed to reach a 40% three-point rate twice this regular season (one of which came on December 23, in Orlando) – the Magic held them under that threshold in each of the final three games of the series.
Those offensive issues certainly had something to do with Jrue Holiday (hamstring) being lost for the final three games, but in a matchup featuring such a talent discrepancy, it’s a sign of vulnerability that we didn’t expect to see this early, if at all, from Boston in their bid to repeat.
That said, this team still showed grit, and Jayson Tatum again proved that he is on the short list of most impactful players in the game. In two of his four games against the Magic, he posted a shooting double double (10+ 3PA and 10+ FTA), and in the other two, he had 14 assists against two turnovers in 74 minutes. On a loaded team, he is a star of stars and deserves to be labeled as such by the general public in a way that many seem cautious.
Knicks Round 1: Beat the Pistons in six games
It wasn’t easy (four straight one possession games to end the series), but the Knicks showed the ability to get games to the finish line, a trait that is common among teams that make deep runs.
Michael Jordan slayed Detroit in his seventh season. Not the same rivalry, but some eerily similar numbers for him in that series (sweep) and in Jalen Brunson's last four games in his elimination of the Pistons @nyknicks pic.twitter.com/hmEv4NexwP
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)
Jalen Brunson was special in any way you want to measure it. From clutch plays to getting others involved, gutting out injuries to making free throws – he did it all and he did it all well.
The sporadic play of his supporting cast was able to be overcome, but that is certainly something to watch in a series like this, where they are punching above their weight class.
- Karl-Anthony Towns Round 1 point totals: 23-10-31-27-17-10
- OG Anunoby Round 1: Four assists in his 251 minutes
- Mikal Bridges Round 1, FG%: 44.4 – 44.4 – 53.8 – 25 – 43.8 – 68.8
There are holes to poke if you want, but New York did show intensity on the defensive end that certainly wasn’t there on any sort of consistent basis during the regular season. Does that come to Round 2 with them? Only time will tell, but we now at least have proof of concept, and that brings a series upset into the range of plausible outcomes.
Series Predictions and Bets
Offenses get plenty of attention for their adaptation over time. We praise the math that goes into this Celtics three-point barrage and their roster’s unique ability to execute it even when it’s the sole goal of the defense to prevent.
But wait. We saw the Magic punch above their weight in Round 1, and it was essentially only because they were able to chase the C’s off the three point line. They really didn’t have an answer for Jayson Tatum (31.3 points on 52% 2P% and 9.3 FTM per game) and couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn (42.2% FG and 26.3% 3P%) – yet they were competitive.
Knick Rankings By Season, Opponent 3-Point Rate
- 2022: 27th
- 2023: 25th
- 2024: 15th
- 2025: 5th
That doesn’t happen by accident and with New York’s defense showing their teeth over the past two weeks, I think it’s fair to say they are capable of executing the Orlando blueprint, but with more talent.
- A Jalen Brunson game
- A Karl-Anthony Towns game
- A Knicks reserve games
- An ice cold Celtics shooting game
We just need two of those things to come through, and we are in business. The last time the Knicks lost consecutive games when neither was a part of a back-to-back was November – should that trend continue, this series is making it back to the Garden for a Game 6 and cashing our plus-money ticket.
Pick: Knicks +2.5 games (+120, DraftKings)
