The NBA is on the verge of its biggest structural change in more than two decades, and according to the man with the best sources in the business, it is essentially a done deal.
The league’s Board of Governors is set to vote on March 24–25, and Shams Charania is confident about which way it goes.
Why Shams Charania Expects the NBA Expansion Vote to Pass for Seattle and Las Vegas
Speaking on “The Old Man and the Three podcast,” Charania laid out exactly where things stand. “Seattle and Las Vegas, there’s definitely a belief there’s going to be a price tag of around $7-$10 billion for each of those two teams,” he said. “They’re focused on those two teams and will have a vote on March 25th. By all accounts, that’s gonna pass.”
Shams on Vegas and Seattle potentially being expansion teams:
“Seattle and Las Vegas, there’s definitely a belief there’s going to be a price tag of around $7-$10B for each of those two teams. They’re focused on those two teams and will have a vote on March 25th. By all accounts… pic.twitter.com/OiG02QnsAN
— NBA Courtside (@NBA__Courtside) March 20, 2026
The vote, which requires 23 of the league’s 30 governors to approve, marks the first of multiple critical steps toward expanding to 32 teams. If it passes as expected, the league would open a formal bidding process for franchises in both cities, with a potential final vote later in the year to finalize the transactions.
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Both teams are being targeted to begin play in the 2028–29 season, a timeline that would bring the NBA back to Seattle exactly 20 years after the SuperSonics relocated to Oklahoma City and became the Thunder.
The economics driving expansion are significant. NBA franchise valuations have surged dramatically in recent years. The Los Angeles Lakers sold for $10 billion in 2025, and the Boston Celtics fetched $6.1 billion before that.
Industry executives project that both Las Vegas and Seattle would rank among the NBA’s top revenue generators, making the expansion fees, which go directly to existing owners and are not shared with players, an attractive proposition.
A growing number of owners are believed to support the move for exactly that reason, though some remain cautious about diluting their league equity from 1/30 to 1/32 until final bid valuations are confirmed.
Both cities have been laying the groundwork for NBA teams for some time. Seattle has been without a franchise since 2008, but Climate Pledge Arena, the renovated former KeyArena, now gives the city a viable NBA-ready venue.
Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson has been vocal in his support. He is scheduled to meet with commissioner Adam Silver on Monday and has publicly called Seattle a deserving market.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, has served as the league’s unofficial 31st city for years through Summer League. The city has hosted the NBA Cup championship and already counts the WNBA’s three-time champion Aces among its sports franchises.
With both new teams expected to land in the Western Conference, the league would need to address the resulting 17-15 imbalance. Executives across the NBA broadly expect either the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Memphis Grizzlies to shift to the East. Minnesota is geographically farther west than Memphis, but it sits closer to several Eastern Conference cities than to its nearest Western Conference neighbor, Denver.
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The expansion process also raises questions about draft structure, salary cap rules for new franchises, and how an expansion draft would work. These are all topics the league will work through before a binding vote, expected as soon as the July Board of Governors meeting during the Las Vegas Summer League.
In December, commissioner Adam Silver said that the league would make a decision on expansion in 2026. Based on Charania’s reporting and the momentum building around next week’s vote, that decision appears to be arriving right on schedule.
