NBA Draft predictions are tricky at this time of the year. We are preparing for the Final Four and have seen some standout March Madness performances, but those big games are only data points when it comes to evaluating these stars’ overarching potential at the next level.
Let’s take a look at where the best prospects project at the next level.
NBA Draft Predictions, Tier 1: Superstar
“I’m confident in my ability and my skill.”
Simple. Humble but confident.
@bleacherreport Coop staying confident 💯 (via BenGolliver/X) #basketball #teamusa #cooperflagg #duke
That was Cooper Flagg‘s modest reaction to the attention he was getting this summer when he, a 17-year-old at the time, held his own when opposing the USA Basketball Select Team in a tune-up for the Olympics.
He’s been the story of the 2024-25 college basketball season from start to finish and has lived up to expectations every step of the way. There is no debating as to who the 1.01 will be in June, making the bouncing of the ping-pong balls the most influential event of this season for the teams involved.
As you know, the three worst teams this regular season all enter the lottery with a 14% chance to earn the first pick. The Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz will be a part of that mix, while the Charlotte Hornets hold the inside track for the third spot.
Each Team’s Most Recent No. 1 Overall Pick:
- Wizards: John Wall (2010)
- Jazz: Never
- Hornets: Larry Johnson (1991)
For the rest of these prospects, the team that calls their name will largely rely on roster need; that’s not the case for the team that wins the rights to the top pick.
Mission: “Capture The Flagg.”
NBA Draft Predictions, Tier 2: Immediate Impact
Opinions vary on Duke’s Khaman Maluach; he picked up a basketball for the first time just six years ago and is still in the infant stages of his development. That said, he’s a 7’2” game-changer at the rim who has displayed reasonable shooting touch, a combination that NBA teams will always take a second look at.
He and teammate Kon Knueppel are projected to go in the middle to the first half of the first round. They are two very different players, and they both check the needed boxes for teams with the requisite roster vacancies.
READ MORE: March Madness Final Four Preview: Are the Florida Gators and Duke Blue Devils on a Crash Course?
Knueppel’s shooting makes it possible that he will be treated like a quarterback in the NFL Draft, where his stock steadily rises with time. The San Antonio Spurs could opt to go in his direction, understanding that they can cover for his defensive shortcomings with Victor Wembanyama while having a versatile point guard that can put the rookie in a position to succeed.
Other potential suitors for Knueppel’s services are the Chicago Bulls (third in 3-point rate this season), the Portland Trail Blazers (spent their first pick on more of a paint-locked big in Donovan Clingan last season, opening them up for perimeter-oriented players), and the Dallas Mavericks (at full strength, they have the interior on both ends covered).
Maluach, for me, has just as high of a professional ceiling as Knueppel but is less flexible regarding team fits. The Atlanta Hawks (Clint Capela is a free agent after this season) are a logical landing spot, and the Phoenix Suns are light on frontcourt depth in what could turn into a rebuild situation.
NBA Draft Predictions, Tier 3: Role Players
There are a handful of prospects in action this weekend that have popped in recent games but don’t project as friendly at the professional level as the aforementioned trio of Blue Devils
Johni Broome (Auburn) is the biggest name in this tier, as he’s been in the conversation alongside Flagg for National Player of the Year honors. He’s been great all season long and battled through an injury to get the Tigers to this point. However, being in his fifth season drags his NBA stock down, as there just isn’t as much of a developmental runway as there is with prospects 2-4 years his junior.
All signs point to Broome being picked in the late first/early second round, likely by a playoff team that doesn’t need tremendous Day 1 production. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Boston Celtics will have picks in this vicinity, making them logical destinations. Could the upstart Detroit Pistons look to build out their frontcourt with a backcourt on the rise?
There are a handful of options, and a successful team could always trade in a position to pick a high-floor player like this, but without the benefit of an optimistic ceiling, the use of strong draft capital is unlikely.
Alex Condon (Florida) is a less refined player than Broome, but as a sophomore, he’ll get the benefit of the doubt given his age, and that could result in him drawing more interest.
The Brooklyn Nets are going to be picking twice toward the end of the first round and could opt to pair a potentially versatile Condon with the rim-running Nic Claxton. I don’t think the Suns or Orlando Magic would shy away from a player like this with physical tools and unknown potential, as both would allow him to flex his comfort with the ball in his hands.
There are two guards left in this tier, and similar to the big men, they’re a refined product with game experience and a young option with a wide range of outcomes. Houston’s L.J. Cryer isn’t getting a ton of draft buzz, and there’s a chance he goes undrafted, but I expect him to find a home on the professional level one way or another.
He’s a dead-eye shooter, and the good teams in today’s NBA are never satisfied with the number of long-range assassins on their roster. The Memphis Grizzlies, Hawks, Bulls, and Wizards are the clear top-tier teams in pace this year, and that is the type of offensive environment where Cryer could thrive.
On the other side of the age coin is Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford, a fearless shot-making freshman who could very well opt to return to school and star next season. If that’s not the case, could the Hawks, Los Angeles Clippers, or Golden State Warriors be in the mix?
All of those teams are inside the bottom 10 in fast-break efficiency this season and could benefit from the insertion of an instant energy guard like Pettiford, who can take over for windows of time.
NBA Draft Predictions, Tier 4: Lottery Tickets
I haven’t yet mentioned Walter Clayton Jr., one of the shining stars from last week and the key cog in Florida’s peaking at the right time. How he fits at the professional level is a question mark as his size/skill combination doesn’t fit comfortably at any position. In a perfect world, he’d land on a team with a more traditional point guard and a reasonable defensive base.
Could the Cleveland Cavaliers be interested in a microwave scorer off the bench? What about the Los Angeles Lakers, understanding that they have two ball-dominant players who would take pressure off Clayton in his spurts and the type of size to help him defensively?
Clayton could be a game-wrecker this weekend, but his NBA outlook, at least in the short term, isn’t nearly as rosy.
Isaiah Evans is the polar opposite: He’s a player you’ve hardly seen over the past month, but NBA teams are very interested in him. The 6’6” freshman is playing less than 15 minutes a game for Duke, but his length and offensive versatility project well at the highest level of competition.
The Warriors have been known to draft profiles like his, and they could be in a position to do that again in the second round. Given their volume of picks, the Nets deserve to be in the conversation, and any athletic guard with impressive range makes for a fun add in Charlotte, where an exciting roster is coming together.
NBA Draft Predictions, Tier 5: Organizational Depth
I have a favorite player on all four remaining teams that I believe has something to offer at the professional level, but they may need to work their way into an organization.
- Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn, Wing
- Tyrese Proctor, Duke, Guard
- Emanuel Sharp, Houston, Guard
- Will Richard, Florida, Guard
All these players have upside if they land on the right team, but all are working on the wrong end of the college age curve. Of the bunch, Proctor would be my favorite in terms of getting a shot at the professional level. His 3-point percentage has improved each season during his Duke career, and at 6’6”, he has the size to get his looks off.
Could he be Damian Lillard insurance at some level in Milwaukee? Any LeBron James-led team is always looking for shooting help. With the majority of teams taking over 40% of their shots from deep this year in the NBA, a player like Proctor with a reasonably high floor (career 2.3 assist-to-turnover rate) is likely to get a chance to shine, and I’m not in the business of betting against him.