With both teams on the front end of a back-to-back, this Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers game brings some intrigue. Both teams are battling for seeding in their respective conferences, making every full-strength game down the stretch that much more important.
So, who holds the edge in a matchup that sportsbooks have labeled a near coin flip?
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers Best Bets
The surging Pacers have won five straight, and while four of those wins came by no more than two possessions, their ability to close out games has been impressive. Conversely, the Lakers looked like a well-oiled machine after Luka Dončić’s arrival, but things have unraveled lately — and LeBron James’ return hasn’t reversed that trend.
Patience or panic?
Long-term patience may be the move. But this isn’t a long-term piece — this is about tonight’s game. And while the Lakers could absolutely come out on top, my money is on Pacers-oriented props.
What’s wrong with the Lakers isn’t a mystery — their defense has fallen off. James brought great energy on that end right after the Dončić trade, but a groin injury sidelined him, and things haven’t looked the same since. Despite looking healthy now, the team hasn’t recovered.
Los Angeles has produced a sub-9% opponent turnover rate in three straight games — their longest streak all season. That means opponents are getting plenty of clean looks, and they’ve capitalized. The Bulls and Magic combined for 264 points in the Lakers’ last two games, which is brutal, no matter how you slice it.
It’s not just overall defense, either. L.A. has had no answer for perimeter scoring. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner dropped 62 points on 22-of-43 shooting, including 17-of-27 from inside the arc. Even Matas Buzelis and Coby White, not exactly household names, went off for 67 points on 24-of-35 shooting.
Meanwhile, Indiana has scored over 1.15 points per possession in six of its past eight games. With the Lakers struggling to force turnovers and control the glass, the Pacers should have plenty of “bites at the apple.”
Indiana ranks eighth in turnover rate this season (12%), and they’ve posted a better rate in six of their last nine games.
When healthy, Tyrese Haliburton has been spectacular in the 2nd half of the season…
Perfectly threading the needle of showmanship & elite efficiency. When locked in, he’s constantly presenting new puzzles, manipulating defenses, and making next to no mistakes. Fun to watch! pic.twitter.com/laKqQ0vNYW
— NBA University (@NBA_University) March 25, 2025
Tonight’s line feels like it includes a bit of an L.A. tax, and I’m happy to fade that. As for who will lead the charge for Indiana, Tyrese Haliburton is the obvious answer. He’s notched double-doubles in 11 straight games and could finish March as a 50-40-90 shooter.
But his props have been priced accordingly. If you’re hunting value, look to his teammate: Benedict Mathurin.
Mathurin isn’t shy. During the five-game win streak, he’s taking a shot every 2.2 minutes of playing time. He’s also averaging 15.7% more minutes than last season, which makes his rate stats pop. If you’re not feeling his points prop, consider his points-plus-rebounds line — over 18 at -105 — as the Lakers have been consistently outrebounded over their last 16 games.
Maybe the Lakers will get back on track with a win tonight — as long as it’s in a high-scoring game, my wallet won’t mind.
Pick: Pacers over 117.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Benedict Mathurin over 12.5 points (-125, DraftKings)