This Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors game features one team on a hot streak with a new addition and another hoping to get a key player back from injury. With a few moving parts to consider, the betting markets have posted some favorable lines, including a plus-money player prop worth a look.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors Best Bets
Domantas Sabonis (hamstring) has played just one minute in March, but he’s currently listed as questionable and appears to be trending in the right direction. Sportsbooks have made it possible to bet on Sacramento’s center, which is another positive sign that he’ll suit up.
It seems more likely than not that he plays in one of these back-to-back games, and with a winnable matchup against the Phoenix Suns tomorrow, I agree with the books in favoring this game as his return spot.
For the record, I’m assuming he plays, but my leans wouldn’t drastically change if he sits.
The Kings’ core of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Sabonis played together in February, so I’m more comfortable using that data to evaluate this team rather than the recent games without Sabonis.
Last month, it wasn’t close in terms of who Sacramento relied on as their primary playmaking wing. We know everything runs through Sabonis, and I expect that to continue, but I was curious to see who the clear secondary option was between LaVine and DeRozan.
- DeRozan: 26.4% of potential assists turned into actual assists
- LaVine: 18.3% of potential assists turned into actual assists
Top 50 in Isolation Possessions per Game
⬆️ More Efficient Isolations
➡️ More Isolations pic.twitter.com/VNXszhkWu4— NBA University (@NBA_University) March 11, 2025
The numbers back up what we see on the court—the Kings use LaVine as a scoring threat, while DeRozan, Sabonis, and Malik Monk (also back from injury) handle more of the playmaking duties.
I’m leaning into that trend tonight, especially with Golden State’s strong wing defenders in Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. Ideally, Sabonis is active for this prop, but I’m fine locking it in now. If he sits, LaVine’s usage increases, but the overall scoring environment takes a hit, and it’s not like he’s been dishing out assists lately (just eight in his last 119 minutes over three games).
That Warriors defense is also the key to my ATS pick. These two bets are correlated, making them a solid SGP option if you’re looking to tie them together. Since Butler debuted, the Warriors have forced a turnover on 15.9% of opponent possessions—an elite rate, way up from the 11.7% they posted in the 14 games before he arrived.
Take that a step further, and you’ll see Golden State is 17-6 outright in its top 23 games by opponent turnover rate.
Go even deeper, and one team stands out in that sample. Maybe it’s a James Harden stat, or maybe it’s just random variance, but in those 23 games, the Clippers are 3-0 against the Warriors, while the rest of the league is 3-17 and has been outscored by an average of 12.7 points per game.
Another factor in this play is Sacramento’s struggles on the glass. Over their past six games, the Kings have grabbed just 45.7% of missed shots—worse than their season average of 49.6%, despite Sabonis playing in most of those matchups. Over the past month, Golden State has outscored opponents by an average of 11.8 points in games where it has won the rebound battle.
I’m comfortable carrying over those averages for this game, projecting something around a 122-110 final score—which works for our bets!
I have concerns about Sacramento’s offensive consistency when fully healthy, but that’s not an issue for the Warriors, who lead the league with a 71.2% assist rate over their last 10 games.
Pick: Warriors -7 (-112, FanDuel)
Pick: Zach LaVine under 3.5 assists (+114, DraftKings)