The NBA playoffs are rapidly approaching, and the playoff picture is becoming a bit clearer. The teams that will participate in this year’s postseason are not yet fully determined, as the play-in tournament adds an element of uncertainty. However, the top-10 teams in each conference are set, and now these franchises are just jockeying for seeding as the regular season comes to an end.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have secured the top seed in the Eastern Conference and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Boston Celtics have locked up the second seed. Meanwhile, the top two seeds are also locked in the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder finished with the league’s best record and the No. 1 seed, while the second-seeded Houston Rockets were the big surprise of the season.
Let’s break down the playoff picture in both conferences and each team’s potential first-round opponents.
Current NBA Standings and Playoff Scenarios
Here are the current standings in both conferences, followed by the playoff-seed probabilities and potential first-round opponents for each team (courtesy of PlayoffStatus.com).
Eastern Conference
- Cleveland Cavaliers, 63-17
- Boston Celtics, 59-21
- New York Knicks, 50-30
- Indiana Pacers, 49-31
- Milwaukee Bucks, 46-34
- Detroit Pistons, 44-36
- Orlando Magic*, 40-40
- Atlanta Hawks*, 38-42
- Chicago Bulls*, 37-43
- Miami Heat*, 36-44
*Currently in the play-in tournament
The Cavaliers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the East, and their potential first-round opponents are the Magic (25%), Hawks (25%), Heat (25%), or Bulls (25%).
The Celtics have clinched the No. 2 seed, and their potential first-round opponents are the Magic (49%), Hawks (44%), or Bulls (6%).
The Knicks have a 97% chance of securing the No. 3 seed and a 3% chance of landing in the No. 4 seed. Their potential first-round opponents are the Pistons (75%) or Bucks (25%).
The Pacers have a 97% chance of landing the fourth seed and a 3% chance of jumping up to the third seed. Their potential first-round opponents are the Bucks (75%) or Pistons (25%).
The Bucks have a 77% chance of securing the No. 5 seed and a 23% chance of falling to No. 6. Their potential first-round opponents are the Pacers (75%) or Knicks (25%).
The Pistons have a 77% chance of securing the No. 6 seed and a 23% chance of climbing up to the No. 5 seed. Their potential first-round opponents are the Knicks (75%) or Pacers (25%).
The Magic (100%), Hawks (87%), Bulls (85%), and Heat (93%) seem likely to remain in their current seeds, and their first-round opponent will be either the Cavaliers or Celtics depending on what happens during the play-in tournament.
Western Conference
- Oklahoma City Thunder, 66-14
- Houston Rockets, 52-28
- Los Angeles Lakers, 49-31
- Los Angeles Clippers, 48-32
- Denver Nuggets, 48-32
- Golden State Warriors, 47-33
- Memphis Grizzlies*, 47-33
- Minnesota Timberwolves*, 47-33
- Sacramento Kings*, 39-41
- Dallas Mavericks*, 38-42
*Currently in the play-in tournament
The Thunder have clinched the West’s No. 1 seed, and their potential first-round opponents are the Mavericks (25%), Kings (25%), Grizzlies (18%), Warriors (14%), Nuggets (9%), Clippers (5%), or Timberwolves (3%).
The Rockets have clinched the No. 2 seed, and their potential first-round opponents are the Grizzlies (37%), Warriors (29%), Nuggets (19%), Clippers (9%), or Timberwolves (6%).
The Lakers have a 92% chance of landing the No. 3 seed, a 5% chance of earning the No. 4 seed, and a 3% chance of falling to the No. 5 seed. Their potential first-round opponents are the Nuggets (26%), Timberwolves (22%), Warriors (20%), Clippers (16%), or Grizzlies (15%).
The Clippers have a 4% chance of securing the No. 3 seed, a 21% chance of earning the No. 4 seed, a 39% chance of finishing in the No. 5 seed, a 17% chance of landing in the No. 6 seed, a 15% chance of slotting in at No. 7, and a 4% of finishing in No. 8. Their potential first-round opponents are the Timberwolves (39%), Nuggets (17%), Lakers (16%), Rockets (9%), Grizzlies (5%), Thunder (5%), or Warriors (4%).
The Nuggets have a 3% chance of finishing third, a 23% chance of finishing fourth, a 9% chance of finishing fifth, a 27% chance of finishing sixth, a 29% chance of finishing seventh, and a 9% chance of finishing eighth. Their potential first-round opponents are the Lakers (26%), Rockets (19%), Clippers (17%), Timberwolves (14%), Thunder (9%), Warriors (5%), or Grizzlies (<1%).
The Warriors have a 6% chance of finishing fourth, a 15% chance of finishing fifth, a 21% chance of finishing sixth, a 32% chance of finishing seventh, and a 26% chance of finishing eighth. Their potential first-round opponents are the Rockets (29%), Lakers (20%), Thunder (14%), Timberwolves (9%), Nuggets (5%), Clippers (4%), or Grizzlies (3%).
The Timberwolves have a 43% chance of securing the No. 4 seed, a 25% chance of finishing with the No. 5 seed, a 20% chance of landing the No. 6 seed, a 6% chance of finishing with the No. 7 seed, and a 7% chance of landing in the No. 8 seed. Their potential first-round opponents are the Clippers (39%), Lakers (22%), Nuggets (14%), Warriors (9%), Rockets (6%), Grizzlies (3%), or Thunder (3%).
The Kings have a 96% chance of securing the No. 9 seed and a 4% chance of dropping to the No. 10 seed, while the Mavericks have a 4% chance of flipping to the ninth seed and a 96% chance of staying in 10th. Their potential first-round opponent is the Thunder, but only if they win the play-in tournament.
Western Conference Seeding Is Up in the Air
While the final four teams in the play-in scenarios for each conference are now clear, the Western Conference is highly competitive from the third seed down to the eighth seed. With the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves all vying for those slots, the final standings could shift.
This situation seems to highlight a scenario where the play-in tournament might feel unnecessary. Some fans may argue that the top eight teams should automatically qualify for the playoffs, especially considering the significant gap in wins between the eighth and ninth seeds. The 47-win Timberwolves currently hold the No. 8 seed, putting them eight games ahead of the 39-win Sacramento Kings.
However, the play-in tournament has its supporters, too, as it has added some intrigue at the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason.
Even with 10 teams making the playoffs in each conference due to the play-in tournament, the star-studded Phoenix Suns have been eliminated from the postseason despite entering the season with championship aspirations.
With the playoffs just around the corner, these final few days of NBA basketball carry significant implications.
