The Baltimore Ravens will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Zay Flowers.
Is Zay Flowers Playing vs. the Steelers?
Head coach John Harbaugh noted Thursday that Flowers (knee) won’t play in Saturday night’s Wild Card round game against the Steelers.
Flowers, who sprained his right knee in this past Saturday’s win over the Browns, didn’t practice this week and will target a potential return to action in the Divisional Round, should Baltimore defeat Pittsburgh.
In Flowers’ absence, Rashod Bateman is in line to work as the team’s top wideout this weekend, and Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, and Devontez Walker are also slated to mix in.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Outlook
Flowers isn’t playing this weekend due to a knee injury. It goes without saying that this is a situation worth monitoring.
For playoff-long formats, I’d keep an eye on things as long as possible, but your instinct is going to fade any uncertain situation. I don’t have a problem with that, but it’s also not unique. If Flowers’ status is TBD when you’re drafting, his ADP is going to sink, and it’s on you to determine when the right time to pounce is.
I love the player, but even if he were playing, I don’t like this Wild Card matchup. If you think Baltimore advances, then we are in a buy situation because I do like how Flowers’ skill set plays in a likely matchup with the Bills.
For this weekend, we have two games of data when it comes to how Baltimore’s offense wants to utilize its WR1 in this specific spot, and, to be honest, I wasn’t loving it.
Flowers posted a 14+ yard aDOT in both Steelers games during the regular season, something that is very much outside of his normal usage pattern (three such games all season when not facing Pittsburgh). Those targets, naturally, come with more risk, which was reflected in his 50% catch rate across those two games (otherwise: 65.7%).
The more you dive into the target data, the more bizarre things get. We are looking at the smallest of samples, but a 19.5-yard aDOT from the slot doesn’t happen by accident (all other games: 6.6-yard aDOT from the slot). If I’m investing in Flowers in any given week, I’m doing it with the understanding that I’m betting on efficiency.
I’m not betting on splash plays; Rashod Bateman does that.
I’m not betting on touchdowns; Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews do that.
If I’m not confident in the type of routes that are going to be run or the health, how could I have justified going in this direction? Add in the fact that this is expected to be a positive game script for Baltimore, and I was having a hard time seeing Flowers being worth the risk this week.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
Flowers is projected to score 0 points this weekend.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
However, the Bills were able to overwhelm the Broncos in the Wild Card round following an opening drive touchdown. Buffalo had a strong run defense all year (sixth in EPA per rush), and that came through with the team's fourth-best EPA per rush (0.27).
However, the leaky pass defense that ranked 26th in EPA per dropback also played at a well above-average level. Buffalo averaged 0.18 defensive EPA per dropback vs. the Broncos, the team's sixth-best showing of the season.
The Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged this week against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, as well as in a potential AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round WR PPR Rankings
1) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (at PHI)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. LAR)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (at KC)
5) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at DET)
6) Jameson Williams | DET (vs. WAS)
7) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. BAL)
8) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. HOU)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. LAR)
10) Cooper Kupp | LAR (at PHI)
11) Rashod Bateman | BAL (at BUF)
12) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. HOU)
13) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. HOU)
14) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. BAL)
15) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. BAL)
16) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at DET)
17) John Metchie III | HOU (at KC)
18) Dyami Brown | WAS (at DET)
19) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. BAL)
20) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at PHI)
21) Tim Patrick | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Nelson Agholor | BAL (at BUF)
23) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. BAL)
24) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. HOU)
25) Zay Flowers | BAL (at BUF)
26) Diontae Johnson | HOU (at KC)
27) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. LAR)
28) Tylan Wallace | BAL (at BUF)
29) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (at KC)
30) Robert Woods | HOU (at KC)
31) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at DET)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (at PHI)
33) Justin Watson | KC (vs. HOU)
34) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at DET)
35) Anthony Miller | BAL (at BUF)
36) Jordan Whittington | LAR (at PHI)
37) Kalif Raymond | DET (vs. WAS)
38) Devontez Walker | BAL (at BUF)
39) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. LAR)
40) Xavier Smith | LAR (at PHI)
41) Allen Robinson II | DET (vs. WAS)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
