Cincinnati Bengals RB Zack Moss showed out last season when given an extended opportunity with the Indianapolis Colts in Jonathan Taylor’s absence. But without a 200-carry season to his name and role competition on the horizon, Moss’ fantasy football potential carries as much risk as reward.
Should you be willing to invest a middle-round pick in the five-year veteran?
Should You Select Zack Moss at His Current ADP?
ADP: 83rd Overall (RB28)
Managing the average draft position (ADP) of Moss will be important as your draft approaches and news surfaces.
At the moment, he’s priced as a borderline Flex option. That’s appealing, but it accounts for role uncertainty. Moss’ positional ADP could fluctuate 8-10 spots based on reporting, which will dictate my exposure.
With a strong camp and a firm grasp on the RB1 title, why wouldn’t he move into the RB2 tier with guys like Rhamondre Stevenson and Aaron Jones?
With every Brown highlight, though, I find the upside of Mostert and Javonte Williams more appealing — both going after Moss in most drafts.
Orlando Brown added to my hesitation when he said, “If I could play fantasy football, I’d take (Chase Brown) as my first running back.”
Brown is an offensive lineman, not a fantasy analyst, but the fact that he made this comment is at least worth highlighting.
At this moment, I’m more likely to invest in RB talent that I view as more explosive. In this ADP neighborhood, Jaylen Warren is the pick I make most frequently. The aforementioned Williams is another player I grade higher than Moss in terms of raw talent.
I’m not actively avoiding Moss by any means. The ability to get cheap exposure to an offense I trust holds value. Still, he’s not currently circled as a “must target” on my cheat sheets, either.
Moss’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
When you look back at the running backs who outperformed expectations last season, a trend emerges.
- Raheem Mostert
- De’Von Achane
- Gus Edwards
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- David Montgomery
- Kyren Williams
That’s not a comprehensive list, but you get the idea — they all played for strong offenses. These six players all played for top-eight scoring units, and you could easily add a James Cook or D’Andre Swift to that list if you wanted to.
The Bengals have finished both healthy Joe Burrow seasons (11+ games played) seventh in the NFL in scoring, making this role one worth monitoring.
The departure of Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans opens up north of 18 touches per game, and while a nice two-year deal in March would suggest that Moss has the inside track to lead this backfield in work, Chase Brown (fifth-round pick in 2023) is certainly in the mix for genuine role competition.
Dating back to college, Moss has more experience as a featured back than Brown.
Also, Cincinnati moving to Dan Pitcher as its offensive coordinator is something that we have to work with when it comes to projecting volume. Pitcher has been a voice in the Bengals’ offensive room since 2016, but he had mainly focused on the passing game before his January promotion.
Zack Moss scored 52.2 PPR points in his 3 weeks without Jonathan Taylor 💪
322 yards and 2 TDs off of 72 touches 🔥
Are you putting him back into your lineup this week? 📢 pic.twitter.com/IBpNcdo778
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 29, 2023
For his career, Moss averages 4.3 yards per carry. There might also be some pass-catching upside to chase, as he earned multiple targets in five of his first six games last season.
Moss can be a bit of a plodder at times (just three of his 183 carries last season gained 25+ yards, all coming in games in which he was handed the ball 18 times) — a concern if this ends up being a true committee.
As good as Cincinnati’s offense is, it will still rely on Burrow’s right arm and will, thus, have a hard time producing a pair of viable running backs like the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions did last year.
In handling the first month for an injured Taylor last season, Moss ran for at least 70 yards in all four games and scored four times. That proof of concept, in my opinion, makes him the favorite to earn work and potentially recreate Mixon’s 1,400+ yards from 2023.