The wide receiver position is the deepest for fantasy football purposes, but that can still lead to some tough start/sit decisions when navigating that. Let’s examine the WR fantasy options for Week 1, their ranking, and projections to determine which players you should start or sit this week.

After you’re done reading, check out my Week 1 fantasy start/sit for every top skill player in every game on this week’s slate.

The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.

A.T. Perry’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR90
Fantasy Points (PPR): 4.4
Receptions: 1.4
Receiving Yards: 19.0
Receiving TDs: 0.2

A.T. Perry has the size (6’5”) and athleticism to dominate jump ball situations; if Carr is going to have all day to identify mismatches, this could be a spot where his WR3 is on the right side of a few bombs.

There’s no reason to be looking this far down your depth chart in Week 1, but it wouldn’t shock me if his name is a popular one when Derek Tate and I do the waiver wire podcast on Monday — or if his name is on one of those “look at the winning lineup for the millionaire maker” posts.

Adam Thielen’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR69
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.1
Receptions: 2.4
Receiving Yards: 24.4
Receiving TDs: 0.2

From Weeks 2-6, Thielen was the highest-scoring receiver in the game, and the second-highest-scoring player in the league.

Let me say that again: Thielen was the second-highest-scoring player in the game (tweet me @KyleSoppePFN if you want the top five) over a month. What he did over that run was rack up highly efficient targets less than 10 yards down the field and make the most of them (aDOT: 8.2 yards).

I’m not sure that the short-yardage role is Thielen’s this season, and I’m even less sure that it’s a profitable spot on the field against these Saints.

Last season, New Orleans allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field and surrendered the fifth-fewest completions. With Johnson penciled in as the top target earner and facing the sixth-best team in terms of average time of possession, I’m more than content to bet against the elite volume that Thielen requires to pay off starting him.

The fantasy industry has plenty of blind spots, but the masses properly evaluated Thielen this summer. He shouldn’t be a part of your starting lineup discussion to open the season, and he isn’t the type of player who is a must-roster option.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking
Adonai Mitchell: WR61
Alec Pierce: WR94
Josh Downs: WR72
Fantasy Points (PPR)
Mitchell: 6.7
Pierce: 4.3
Downs: 6.1
Receptions
Mitchell: 2.2
Pierce: 1.5
Downs: 2.7
Receiving Yards
Mitchell: 33.2
Pierce: 23.1
Downs: 30.1
Receiving TDs
Mitchell: 0.2
Pierce: 0.1
Downs: 0.1

I’ve grouped all three of these secondary options together because there will be weeks to chase their specific roles. As we gather data on how this offense looks under Richardson, I’ll feel better about my ability to handicap the target distribution – for the short term, I’m not playing any of them.

Downs (ankle) was injured early in August at practice and could be held out of this game. In theory, that should increase your confidence in the remaining receivers, but there is much more overlap in what Downs and Pittman do than the downfield roles of Pierce or Mitchell.

Only three defenses allowed more completions on bombs (25+ air yards) than the Texans last season. If you’re stuck in a bind in a really deep league, Mitchell and Pierce both have one-catch potential to pay off your decision, though that’s not a role that you should be chasing in average-sized leagues.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the usage of Pierce vs. Mitchell, though it won’t be with any Week 1 lineup investment tied to either.

Amari Cooper’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR17
Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.3
Receptions: 4.3
Receiving Yards: 64.7
Receiving TDs: 0.4

Despite clearing 1,100 yards in each of his two seasons with the Browns, Cooper was rarely picked before the fifth round this summer with fantasy managers essentially universally preferring WR2s in good spots (Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith).

Only time will tell if that was wise, but I do expect the veteran receiver to finish better this week than his ADP suggests most do. The Cowboys led the league in pressure rate last season (44.7%), and that allowed DaRon Bland to thrive in his aggressive style. There are two ends to that sword, however, and with Bland out for this game (and potentially all of September), this secondary is thin.

The Joe Flacco experience was fun last season, but don’t forget that Cooper was a top-10 producer at the position in two of Watson’s five full games. Call me crazy – I’m a fan of established receivers with a QB connection facing a team that is going to require them to put points on the board.

Patches O’Houlihan had his five Ds of dodgeball, and I’ve got my five Ds of receivers I’d play Cooper over this week: Drake, DK, Deebo, DJ, and DeVonta.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR2
Fantasy Points (PPR): 21.6
Receptions: 8.2
Receiving Yards: 94.1
Receiving TDs: 0.6

The Rams allowed the fourth-highest TD/INT rate when opponents threw to the slot last season, not that Goff needs another reason to feature his certified star.

St. Brown carved up these Rams for 110 yards and seven catches on nine targets during the Wild Card win last season, a level of success that he could very well repeat in the season opener. Every single arrow is pointed in the right direction here; the only question is if he can ascend to the top tier at the position — and I think he can!

Brandin Cooks’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR56
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
Receptions: 2.7
Receiving Yards: 32.8
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Cooks was able to salvage 2023 thanks to an unsustainable touchdown rate, tallying six top-20 finishes at the position despite averaging a career-low 1.25 yards per route run. That, friends, is what we like to label as an aberration.

I do this for a living, and mock/real drafts create easily digestible content. That’s to say that I’ve been drafting for 3+ months at this point – there are few players of which I have literally zero shares: Cooks is on that list. I don’t need an excuse to pass on him (could Jalen Tolbert be a 2024 sleeper with time?), but the Browns allowing the fewest yards per drive last season (20.8) since the 2008 Steelers is certainly noteworthy.

He’s outside of my top 50 at the position, and that’s not changing until I’m proven wrong multiple times, even as a part of this high-octane offense.

Brandon Aiyuk’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR21
Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
Receptions: 4.0
Receiving Yards: 61.8
Receiving TDs: 0.4

It was a far from quiet offseason for Aiyuk, but as long as he suits up for this game, I see no reason why he can’t be considered a top-20 play despite the matchup.

There is no denying that Aiyuk has a better connection with Purdy than Deebo Samuel Sr., something we saw by way of the big play — he had 28 deep receptions, a number topped by the one and only Tyreek Hill in 2023. In theory, this is a tough matchup. We know the Jets are loaded, and the potential for Rodgers to play at a snail’s pace certainly doesn’t help.

That said, featured receivers were able to do enough for fantasy managers last season against Gang Green. Jaylen Waddle caught eight of nine targets when he faced the Jets with Hill inactive (Hill caught nine of 12 targets in the other Miami/New York contest), Stefon Diggs had a game where he hauled in 10 of 13 targets, and the CeeDee Lamb/A.J. Brown contingent combined to grab 18 of 22 looks in their respective games against the Jets.

Would I have preferred a “normal” offseason? Of course, but I’m not punishing myself by benching Aiyuk to see if any of the noise impacts him. I’ll take my chances, and in the final game of the week, he could swing your matchup with a big night.

Brian Thomas Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR34
Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.6
Receptions: 3.5
Receiving Yards: 52.8
Receiving TDs: 0.3

I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I think some of the hype actually helped us get a bargain on Thomas. With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count.

Brian Thomas Jr.

(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024

If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both. As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.

I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.

Calvin Ridley’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR36
Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.5
Receptions: 4.0
Receiving Yards: 43.9
Receiving TDs: 0.3

If you have two, you have none. Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Ridley checked in at fifth. These two players aren’t identical, but there certainly is some skill duplication in Tennessee’s developing pass game and that has resulted in me trusting neither to open the season (both outside of my top-30 receivers).

With time, the hope is that either Levis looks like a franchise QB and can stabilize both of these playmakers or he latches onto his favorite of these two and elevates him to a top-25 producer.

I’d slightly favor Ridley in that race, though I’m not arrogant enough to bet on my initial feel, given the depth at the receiver position. I’d rather play a stable skill set like Chris Godwin/Christian Kirk or swing bigger in a Jayden Reed/Tank Dell kind of way than gamble on the Titans’ unclear situation.

CeeDee Lamb’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR3
Fantasy Points (PPR): 19.6
Receptions: 6.7
Receiving Yards: 88.1
Receiving TDs: 0.6

He’s paid, he’s happy, and he’s starting every single week for you.

Since Week 15 of 2022:

61.5 more PPR points than any other WR
8.8% more PPG than WR2 Tyreek Hill
More games over 32 points (six) than sub-15 point games (four)

I was close to putting Lamb in his own receiver tier this preseason; while I ultimately included Hill in that top shelf at the position, Lamb is pretty clearly worth every penny you spent on him this offseason. That means counting on him to produce in a big way, even against the best EPA defense from 2023.

Chris Godwin’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR32
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.6
Receptions: 4.9
Receiving Yards: 53.7
Receiving TDs: 0.2

If this Baker Mayfield offense is actually a house of cards, Godwin stands to lose the most value. I understand that he came on late last season (WR7 in total PPR points from Weeks 15-17, ranking ahead of Tyreek Hill), but he had the lowest slot usage of his career, and that is where a production floor can be established.

With White seeing plenty of those short-yardage targets and Godwin’s role downfield very much unstable, there is more risk than reward in this profile for me, even in a great spot. He ranks just outside of my top 30 at the position — I’d rather bet on offenses I trust more like Green Bay (Jayden Reed), Baltimore (Zay Flowers), or Houston (I wouldn’t blame you for playing three Texans ahead of Godwin!).

Chris Olave’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR12
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.9
Receptions: 5.5
Receiving Yards: 75.2
Receiving TDs: 0.3

The fantasy community is begging to know if Olave’s talent can shine through in a top-10 sort of way with Carr under center. I have hope, and this could well be a step in the right direction given that the Panthers allowed a touchdown on 24% of opponent drives a season ago (fifth-highest rate in the NFL).

Olave has also had success against the Panthers through two seasons – he’s scored at least 12.8 PPR points in all four matchups and has earned north of 10 targets in three of those games.

Olave is a fringe WR1 for me this week, ranking alongside Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. as alpha receivers with potential upside limiters when it comes to getting them the ball.

Christian Kirk’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR33
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.0
Receptions: 4.0
Receiving Yards: 52.8
Receiving TDs: 0.3

This offense struggled to sustain two viable receivers last season, as Evan Engram and I often cracked fantasy lineups with one of them. I think there’s a decent chance that changes this season, and that is why I have both primary WRs in Jacksonville inside my top 35 at the position.

Well, that and the projected shootout nature of this game.

We know Kirk can get open in a hurry, and I think that’ll create a nice floor against a Miami team that ranked second in pressure rate when not blitzing last season (39.3%, six full percentage points above league average). Kirk likely doesn’t win you your matchup this week, though I would be surprised if he came in well under expectations and set you behind.

Cooper Kupp’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR20
Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.9
Receptions: 4.5
Receiving Yards: 55.6
Receiving TDs: 0.4

There is no need to get into the Nacua vs. Kupp debate — both are great, and I expect both to produce at the level of a fantasy starter, both this week and for the entirety of the season.

MORE: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings (Updated Weekly)

In his historic 2022 season, it was Kupp’s target-earning that caught everyone’s eye. Nacua is the betting favorite to out-earn him this season, but much like the Rodgers/Adams connection in Green Bay for years, the telepathic powers inside the red zone can pay the fantasy bills in a major way.

In an injury-plagued season, amid Nacua lighting the world on fire, Kupp saw 18.9% of his targets come inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (Nacua: 10%). Both should regularly see enough volume to produce without a touchdown, but Kupp’s touchdown equity should be viewed as elite; that keeps him at a WR2 floor, even if you think Nacua is the featured receiver this season.

Courtland Sutton’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR43
Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.3
Receptions: 3.3
Receiving Yards: 43.7
Receiving TDs: 0.3

I liked what I saw from Nix this preseason, and if Tim Patrick’s release implies that this team is happy with what they have at receiver, you have to think Sean Payton is a big fan of what Sutton can do as the clear WR1.

He assumed the alpha role last season, something we thought was Jerry Jeudy’s and ran with it. For the year, he finished 20.9% over expectation in terms of fantasy production, easily the best rate of his career; but even in a breakout season, consistency remains a concern (under 20.5% target rate in all three seasons since tearing his MCL).

The Seahawks allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of opponent drives last season (fourth most), and that puts Sutton in the Flex mix for leagues that start three receivers. For now, he’s swimming in the pool of my ranks that includes other talented receivers with young QBs (Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, etc.). I could see him emerging from that pack, but I’ll need to see a consistent connection with Nix before even considering getting him inside my top 30.

Curtis Samuel’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR67
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.4
Receptions: 2.5
Receiving Yards: 23.7
Receiving TDs: 0.1

The veteran receiver suffered a turf toe injury in mid-August and was immediately labeled as “week-to-week,” bringing his Week 1 status into question.

Samuel turned 28 this offseason and only has one 700-yard season on his resume, though it did come with Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers.

For now, Samuel is a stash because of the uncertainty of target distribution in this above-average offense, but I have his ceiling ranked third among the trio of Bills vying for targets. Being less than 100% isn’t going to change that stance.

Darius Slayton’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR80
Fantasy Points (PPR): 5.4
Receptions: 1.9
Receiving Yards: 28.4
Receiving TDs: 0.1

Fun fact Alert — Slayton is just 27 years old, yet he is the only player with four seasons of 700+ receiving yards on 50 or fewer catches this millennium.

By “fun,” I mean very specific and not at all appealing in our game.

Slayton scored in three straight games to end the 2023 regular season, which helped salvage an underwhelming season. But this isn’t a profile I want a piece of in annual leagues.

In a matchup like this against Minnesota, which allowed the 10th-highest pass TD rate on deep passes last season, value hunters could justify burning a DFS lineup with Slayton, who saw over 29% of his targets come 15+ yards down the field in all five of his NFL seasons. But outside of that, Slayton has little appeal and doesn’t need to be rostered in standard formats.

Darnell Mooney’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR58
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.2
Receptions: 2.7
Receiving Yards: 35.4
Receiving TDs: 0.1

I’m open to the idea of Mooney providing bye week value at some point this season, but with him catching just 71 passes over the past two years (across 27 games), and with three high-usage players ahead of him in Atlanta’s offense, I’m very much going to need to see it before betting on it.

I wouldn’t worry about rostering him now. I would, however, keep an eye on his usage given how positive the Falcons’ schedule is to end the fantasy season:

Week 13 vs. Chargers
Week 14 at Vikings
Week 15 at Raiders
Week 16 vs. Giants
Week 17 at Commanders

Davante Adams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR10
Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.1
Receptions: 4.0
Receiving Yards: 67.3
Receiving TDs: 0.5

The Raiders’ QB situation might be prohibitive to Adams at some point, but with an entire training camp to implement a game plan and a vulnerable defense on the other side, I don’t expect that to be the case in Week 1.

Last season, the Chargers were a bottom-five defense in YAC. Did you know that Adams paced the league with six touchdown catches on balls thrown less than 5 yards last season?) They were also a bottom-five unit in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per pass attempt.

The Chargers put up little in the way of resistance when it comes to limiting the number of Las Vegas throws directed to its WR1 – Adams had 25 targets across those two meetings. And with Minshew at the helm, there’s even more reason for optimism.

The Mustache has started 37 games across his NFL career, and 31 times has he supported a receiver clearing 15 PPR points. Take it a step further and you’ll notice that, in the majority of those instances, that wideout scored at least 18 points.

This isn’t an anti-Jakobi Meyers take – seven times has Minshew supported a pair of receivers surpassing 15 points. It’s simply supporting an elite talent at full strength in a good spot.

The schedule toughens in short order as the Raiders play the Ravens and Browns this month, and Adams’ ranking will dip with time. But for Week 1, an elite performance is very much a possibility.

DeAndre Hopkins’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR47
Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.7
Receptions: 3.1
Receiving Yards: 38.6
Receiving TDs: 0.3

At the beginning of August, we feared that a knee sprain would result in missed time to start the season, but he should be on the field, and if history holds, he might just post Flex-worthy numbers.

Hopkins has cleared 15 PPR points in eight of nine Week 1’s during his career (22.4 PPG), and while the exception did come last season (13.5 points), his 36.1% target share in that contest suggests that it wasn’t for a lack of trying (21.8 expected points). It wasn’t Week 1 last season, but it was Levis’ Week 1 in which Hopkins turned six targets into 34.8 fantasy points.

For the record, I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position. The missed time this preseason is concerning, and I just can’t wrap my head around playing a Levis target at less than full strength with the entire league at my disposal. If you squint, you could get there, and maybe there’s a DFS build worth exploring with him as the bring-back on a Chicago stack – it’s just not for me in redraft.

Deebo Samuel Sr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR19
Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.6
Rushing Yards: 13.7
Rushing TDs: 0.3
Receptions: 3.2
Receiving Yards: 48.3
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Samuel’s profile as a whole worries me from a volume perspective. We’ve seen him do a lot without massive usage numbers, making him an outlier but also a weekly risk.

The Jets allowed the sixth-most YAC to receivers last season (15.9% above league average), and that’s enough for him to slip inside my top 25 at the position; but if you’re buying my Aiyuk case, starting Samuel may not be as much of a lock as you think.

Once. Once last season did multiple receivers crack double figures in terms of PPR points against the Jets (Hill and Waddle did it in Week 12). That was part of an offense that led the league in passing — Purdy can be as efficient as he wants, but he’s not getting any of my money on a “to lead the NFL in passing yards” bet.

Samuel is my WR24, ranking just ahead of WR1s in iffy offenses (George Pickens and Terry McLaurin) but just behind other WR2s in better situations (Waddle and Cooper Kupp).

DeMario Douglas’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR62
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.9
Receptions: 2.7
Receiving Yards: 33.2
Receiving TDs: 0.1

Receivers with relatively “boring” skill sets need at least quality or quantity of targets to play in their favor, potentially both – I’m not sure Douglas opens the season with either.

After all, we had a hard time extracting value from Tyler Boyd while he was with the Bengals, and that is who Douglas is. However, Douglas is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field on a consistent basis in an offense that is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field.

Douglas averaged 8.6 YAC on balls thrown less than five yards last season, third-best among qualifiers (behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice), but this situation simply isn’t built for fantasy success.

I’d hang onto him for now if you don’t have a pressing, must-add on the wire and hope that he can earn a heavy target share, but I’m not optimistic that this offense supports a single pass catcher you have to roster.

Diontae Johnson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR37
Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.4
Receptions: 4.1
Receiving Yards: 46.9
Receiving TDs: 0.2

It’s very possible that Johnson being drafted outside of the top 35 at the position this summer will be proven wrong with time. I just don’t see the point in rolling the dice on him in his Panthers debut.

Last season, opponents failed to pick up a first down on 42.3% of drives against New Orleans, a rate that trailed only the Browns and one that will likely stick against a Carolina offense that looked lost at sea for much of 2023.

I made the argument for a peaking receiver supporting a high-pedigree Year 2 QB earlier this month, so I’m very much keeping the light on for Johnson. That said, when it comes to team debuts in Week 1, I prefer Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley, and Rome Odunze, to name a few in this general Flex range.

Inspired by @LizLoza_FF's Diontae Johnson optimism

He's 28 and joining Bryce Young (1.01 in 2022)

Since 2004: 13x has a 27-29 year old WR joined a 1st round pick in the QBs Year 2 … 14.5 PPG (WR18 last season)

Even better? 8 of those 13 WRs exceeded 14.5 PPG pic.twitter.com/rF8mysj7aA

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 8, 2024

DJ Moore’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR23
Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
Receptions: 4.4
Receiving Yards: 59.6
Receiving TDs: 0.3

This is a loaded offense, but the competition for looks seems destined to be at the WR2 role. Moore came to Chicago last season and earned targets at an elite rate in an offense that carried significant aerial risk – why can’t he excel again this season now that he has a year of experience under his belt and is paired with a better thrower of the football?

Moore is unlikely to dominate the target share the way he did last season due to the increase in talent around him, though I don’t think it’s risky to label him as the top earner. The Titans allowed the ninth-most yards per pass last season, and that’s more than enough to land Moore as a rock-solid WR2.

DK Metcalf’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR24
Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.4
Receptions: 4.1
Receiving Yards: 55.5
Receiving TDs: 0.5

Smith needs to bounce back this season for Metcalf to be a difference-maker. That said, the physical tools are too much to sit on; that is going to give Metcalf a chance to be inside of my top 15 at the position until proven otherwise.

Last season, Metcalf ranked fourth in the league in end-zone targets, and over the past two seasons, he has led all players with 12 games of multiple end-zone looks. Even if the yardage totals carry risk, the usage in the painted area is nothing short of elite and should be on full display in this game that features two of the six worst EPA defenses from 2023 — (bet the over?).

Drake London’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR15
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.2
Receptions: 5.7
Receiving Yards: 64.6
Receiving TDs: 0.3

This new-look offense figures to feature London in a big way, though it might take some time for him to move into the WR1 conversation. The Steelers were the fifth-best red-zone defense in 2023, and if Robinson is truly the focal point of the offense, that puts London’s scoring equity in question to a degree.

That’s about it when it comes to my concerns. London is a top-20 option for me this week, with the thought being that if he can sustain his volume (7+ targets in 10 games last season), the increased quality of those looks will carry him to strong numbers.

I want to see a nice connection with Cousins before going all-in on London, but I anticipate this duo developing chemistry in short order. That’ll result in London pushing into my top 15 at the position before long.

Garrett Wilson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR7
Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.1
Receptions: 7.1
Receiving Yards: 73.2
Receiving TDs: 0.5

Will Rodgers make it a point to feed his WR1 to open the season? It’s certainly not off the table — 14 of his 32 completions in Week 1, 2020, went to Davante Adams, resulting in a cool 156 yards and two touchdowns.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind is expecting a game like that in what projects to be a low-possession game, though I would be surprised if Wilson didn’t flirt with a target share in the high 20s, a role that includes red-zone looks.

As for Wilson himself, I was encouraged by a breadcrumb he left last season. We see the highlight catches from athletic freaks like this, but that’s not what creates a stable fantasy floor. In 2023, he showed us some NFL discipline and earned targets in a comforting way from the slot.

Target rate when in the slot:

2022: 22.6%
2023: 27.4%

It’s not his primary source of income, but I like his growth in effectiveness there, specifically for this matchup; four of the top five WR games against the 49ers last season came from a player who was lined up in the slot for the majority of their routes.

Wilson opens this season right where he closed draft season, and that is as a top-10 receiver.

George Pickens’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR26
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.6
Receptions: 3.6
Receiving Yards: 60.2
Receiving TDs: 0.3

This game could very well be a perfect snapshot of what 2024 as a whole looks like.

Pickens is going to earn targets at bulk in an offense that is void of pass-catching options, and he’s paid off elite usage up to this point in his career.

Career when seeing 8+ targets:

19.3 PPR PPG
32.3% fantasy production over expectation

There will certainly be some peaks and valleys this year – and in this game. The Falcons were a top-10 defense in terms of deep pass yards per attempt and completion percentage, but well below average on those throws in passer rating and TD rate.

In short, Atlanta defends the deep ball well, but when they get gashed, it’s in a big way.

Pickens is a low-end WR2 for me this week with the thought being that, with enough bites at the apple, he makes at least one splash play to justify being in starting lineups.

I expect Pittsburgh’s WR1 to be a headache this season, which is why I don’t have many shares. Still, I think he can give managers a strong week to open the season.

Ja’Lynn Polk’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR64
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.4
Receptions: 2.1
Receiving Yards: 31.9
Receiving TDs: 0.2

The encouraging second-round pick deserves to be rostered due to the lack of clarity in target distribution for this offense, but we are a ways away from playing a Patriot pass catcher in annual leagues with any degree of confidence.

The Bengals allowed a league-high 12.3 yards per completion in 2023, making them a defense to target, generally speaking, though this low-octane offense isn’t one that I’m comfortable betting on at the moment. With Kendrick Bourne (Week 8 ACL tear, PUP list) on the shelf, a high-volume DFS player might take a stab at the highest upside member of this receiving room, but for most of us, Polk is very much a wait-and-see prospect.

Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR6
Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.1
Receptions: 5.7
Receiving Yards: 77.2
Receiving TDs: 0.6

His status for this game has become a talking point, as he and head coach Zach Taylor are pretty clearly not on the same page.

Last week, Taylor indicated that Chase would be a full participant in practice despite a contract “hold in,” and less than 24 hours later, the team’s WR1 showed up late for practice wearing street clothes and not pads.

With two years left on his deal, this appears to be more of a power play by Chase than the use of much leverage, but the fact remains that his status is uncertain. If he plays, you play him. I hate to make it that simple, but he has seven of the top-10 WR games produced over the past two seasons when Burrow is under center, including four better than Higgins’ best over that stretch.

Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas should be added to the back end of your roster whether you roster Chase or not – free pieces of a Burrow-led offense are worth a roll of the dice should this situation get uglier.

Jakobi Meyers’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR46
Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.0
Receptions: 3.4
Receiving Yards: 37.8
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Meyers doubled his career touchdown count last season as he turned 106 targets into 71 catches and eight scores. I maintain my belief that he is a good player with a number of ways to threaten defenses, something that could land him on fantasy radars with time. But, like with Minshew, I need to see how this offense functions before committing.

If you want the bull case from a Meyers stan, the Chargers allowed a league-high 41 pass plays to gain 25+ yards last season and saw opponents pick on their secondary from the jump with a league-high 73.8% of their first-quarter yardage allowed being gained through the air.

I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted some Meyers DFS exposure, though he’s well off of my starting radar in annual leagues. For now.

Jameson Williams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR50
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
Receptions: 1.8
Receiving Yards: 30.4
Receiving TDs: 0.3

I mentioned the high opponent aDOT for opponents facing the Lions. Only two defenses had a higher one — one of which happens to be their opponent this week. The Rams saw their average opponent throw come 9.2 yards downfield last season, the highest rate in the league and 19.5% above the NFL average.

Combine that with Williams’ increased snap share down the stretch last season, and we get a viable dart throw that I’d be interested in if I think my opponent has a better roster than I do. I highly doubt that Williams will ever profile as a “safe” option, and that has me more inclined to play him. I drafted him for his spike weeks, and this could well be one!

I don’t think Williams’ risk profile is any different than the Titans WR duo or Xavier Worthy in Kansas City, a trio of receivers that I suspect most would start over him without much thought.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR44
Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
Receptions: 4.0
Receiving Yards: 39.7
Receiving TDs: 0.3

There has been a groundswell regarding the JSN breakout season, and I’m generally on board. The depth of the WR position allows us time to be patient when it comes to plugging him into starting lineups, and that’s a blessing, though I do want him on my roster in case he truly explodes in Year 2.

Smith-Njigba last season:

Weeks 1-5: 3.3 aDOT
Weeks 6-18: 7.2 aDOT (still shallow, but more optionality)

We know that Grubb wants to stretch the field. We know that Smith is capable of doing so. We know that Lockett showed signs of decline last season. Put all of those ingredients into a pot and we could be looking at a fantasy league winner with time.

Jaylen Waddle’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR13
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.6
Receptions: 5.2
Receiving Yards: 70.1
Receiving TDs: 0.4

After a slow start to 2023, Waddle was fine. We saw glimpses of the ceiling with a pair of WR1 finishes with Hill active, but those were offset by four finishes outside of the top 35 at the position.

I want to bet on the talent, but this offense isn’t structured to maximize his fantasy value. As a result of some difficult matchups for receivers I’d typically have ranked ahead of him, Waddle slides into my top 20 this week, the hope being that the Dolphins can score 30-ish points and pay off all of their assets.

Waddle’s mean production is fine to take on this week because of the upside he carries whenever he is on the field.

Jerry Jeudy’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR57
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
Receptions: 2.8
Receiving Yards: 38.0
Receiving TDs: 0.1

The Cowboys had the best defense by a wide margin last season when it came to creating pressure without blitzing (42.7%, the only team north of 39.3%), and that forced their opponents to beat them with timing.

I suppose it’s possible Jeudy and Watson develop a connection over time, but I’m not going to project it until I see it. Jeudy scored just 11 times during 57 games with the Broncos and is firmly off of my radar, much the way Cooks is on the other sideline until I have a reason to pivot.

The more I look at this game, the more I think Cooper is a threat to lead the league in targets in Week 1.

Jordan Addison’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR48
Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
Receptions: 2.7
Receiving Yards: 34.5
Receiving TDs: 0.4

With off-the-field issues this preseason and a mid-August ankle sprain, why even take the risk of considering Addison for your lineup until we see him play?

As a rookie, Addison scored on 14.3% of his receptions, a rate that I was going to label as unsustainable if Kirk Cousins had remained on this roster. It’s now a near certainty Addison won’t come close to matching that in 2024.

He could see his fair share of targets with T.J. Hockenson on the shelf, but asking Addison to consistently post Flex-worthy numbers is a step I’m not close to taking.

Addison needs a touchdown to bail you out, and maybe he gets it against the 25th-ranked red-zone defense from a year ago. But without a score, Addison’s floor is awfully low, and that’s why he’s hovering around WR50 in my ranks.

Joshua Palmer’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR49
Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.6
Receptions: 3.3
Receiving Yards: 40.7
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Palmer enters the season as my most rostered Chargers receiver, and I have hopes that he can earn valuable targets at a high enough level to get onto Flex radars.

That, however, is going to take time in this Jim Harbaugh system, and it’s why I don’t have any receiver on the Chargers’ roster inside of my top 40 at the position this week, even against a defense that allowed the highest red-zone completion percentage in the league last season (68.7%).

You drafted Palmer with the understanding that it could be a slow burn. Stay patient. There is likely to be a receiver from this offense that pushes for a Fllex-worthy ranking with time, but blindly guessing before we have any data is a good way to lose your matchup.

Justin Jefferson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR5
Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.6
Receptions: 5.9
Receiving Yards: 88.4
Receiving TDs: 0.4

While there is no actionable advice here, this will be an interesting situation to watch. How does this Darnold-led pass game function?

He couldn’t have asked for a softer landing spot to debut, and his WR1 could well look like the record-setting version of himself that we’ve become so accustomed to seeing over the past four seasons.

Jefferson averages 9.6 targets per game for his career and while you can question the quality of those looks this season, it seems safe to assume that volume won’t be an issue.

In 2023, there were 14 times when a receiver saw at least nine targets against the G-men, and they averaged 21.1 PPR PPG.

Obviously, there are some star receivers in perfect spots on that list (A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb, to name two), but Garrett Wilson (a decent template for Jefferson’s worst-case 2024 scenario) and lesser talents like Quez Wakins and Demarcus Robinson are also included.

I’d bet the “under” on 21.1 fantasy points for Jefferson in this game, but the fact that an outcome of that level is within reason should squash your concerns for arguably the best receiver in the game. Save those worries for next week against the 49ers.

Keenan Allen’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR38
Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.2
Receptions: 4.1
Receiving Yards: 45.6
Receiving TDs: 0.2

The 32-year-old has had a weird offseason. For the first time in his career, he has switched teams, and, likely, for the first time in his life, his athletic ability is being questioned. I’m not overweighing the #FatKeenan narrative, but there is no denying that Rome Odunze has looked quick this summer or that Allen has missed 11 games over the past two seasons.

Allen thrived last season thanks to catching a pass on a career-high 20.6% of his routes. He benefited from the extreme volume, which I think has virtually no chance of repeating this season. I’m taking the patient approach with the non-Moore receivers in Chicago. This offense should be strong enough to support two pass catchers; we just need proof of who that second man is going to be.

By the time bye weeks roll around, I suspect we will have a pretty clear picture of where the targets are going, which will land two Bear WRs inside my top 30 instead of two outside my top 35.

Keon Coleman’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR52
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.8
Receptions: 2.6
Receiving Yards: 38.8
Receiving TDs: 0.2

We don’t know exactly what the target hierarchy will look like in Buffalo, but Coleman figures to be in the middle of things given the team used a second-round pick on him after punting away its top two receivers this offseason.

While Shakir and Samuel project more as the conservative pieces in this offense, the 6’3” Coleman owns a catch radius that Allen will certainly explore in valuable spots. The Cardinals allowed 15.9 yards per deep pass attempt last season, a rate that is hard to grapple with. It was 16.9% worse than any other unit in 2023, and the second-worst mark over the past decade.

We will learn together where Allen is most comfortable, but Coleman is my preferred option in Week 1 and in this matchup. He was able to sneak into my top 40 at the position despite a lack of clarity regarding his role.

Khalil Shakir’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR45
Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.7
Receptions: 2.9
Receiving Yards: 46.0
Receiving TDs: 0.2

In theory, the Shakir case is simple – he was insanely efficient in a small sample size, and now he is being asked to do more.

My initial reaction was to use Shakir’s 2023 stat line as a reason to watch him this season. But am I giving him enough credit?

Here are the top receiver seasons over the past decade by players standing at least 6’0” before turning 25, in terms of production over expectation (minimum 40 targets):

A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6% – current peak finish: WR7
Shakir (2023:): +50.7%
Martavis Bryant (2014): +46.1% – current peak finish: WR17
JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR9
Mike Williams (2018): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR13
Will Fuller V (2018): +39.6% – current peak finish: WR8
Nico Collins (2023): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR7
Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR5

That paints a pretty optimistic picture and we could get a glimpse of that this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-highest slot TD rate last season. For reference, Shakir had a 67.2% slot usage last year.

I’m not ready to assume greatness or anything like that after a strong 45-target 2023, but there is a positive track record for this sort of resume, and that means keeping a close eye on Shakir as the structure of this offense comes into focus.

Ladd McConkey’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR39
Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.7
Receptions: 3.2
Receiving Yards: 48.1
Receiving TDs: 0.3

The rookie comes to the pro game with some NFL-ready traits, and we could see him flex his YAC ability from Day 1.

Thanks to Maxx Crosby’s presence, the Raiders had the lowest opponent average depth of throw in 2023 (6.5, NFL average: 7.7), putting McConkey in position to rack up the receptions and show us what he has.

There’s no reason to plug McConkey in just yet, but this is a good spot to see if his skills translate to the speed of the pro game. It could also serve as an indicator of whether he will be a Flex option by the middle of the season as the Chargers’ target hierarchy comes into focus.

Luke McCaffrey’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR84
Fantasy Points (PPR): 5.1
Receptions: 2.1
Receiving Yards: 22.6
Receiving TDs: 0.1

I don’t think there was a “big” winner from the Jahan Dotson trade, but it did clear a path for McCaffrey to get on the field with regularity as a rookie; that’s at least interesting in an offense that could be pretty good in short order.

I liked him as a late stash during the draft season, but if he’s sitting on your waiver wire, I think he can stay there for now. The Bucs ranked 11th in opponent passer rating on short passes (under 15 yards) and 28th on deep passes (15+ air yards, 19.8% worse than league average), not exactly the optimal opponent for a receiver who relies on YAC.

The backend of your roster can be a revolving door – I think it’ll land on McCaffrey at some point, just not to open the season.

Malik Nabers’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR18
Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.2
Receptions: 4.4
Receiving Yards: 65.7
Receiving TDs: 0.4

Reasonable minds disagree on whether the chicken or the egg came first, and they also disagree on whether Nabers’ talent will shine through a cloudy quarterback situation or if the lack of talent under center will mute his abilities.

I have concerns about week-over-week consistency, but Nabers profiles as a starter in all formats for his professional debut.

Last season, receivers cleared 15 PPR points against the Vikings 13 times, six of which came from a quarterback labeled as average.

Highlighting that list was Tee Higgins (22.1 points with Jake Browning) and Adam Thielen (15.2 points with Bryce Young), the latter of which is a pretty good baseline. In that game, Thielen accounted for 37.3% of Young’s completions and was featured in an offense that essentially tried to melt the clock (24-play edge in plays run and over 38 minutes of possession).

I expect the Giants to run a similar death-by-1,000-paper-cuts style of play this season, and we could well see the best version of it in the season opener given the time to prepare.

The Vikings were vulnerable on a per-play basis last season, but they were above average in red-zone defense, making volume all that more valuable for Nabers.

The early schedule plays out favorably for Nabers – the Vikings, Commanders, and Cowboys (likely without DaRon Bland) are three of the Giants’ four September opponents. I maintain my stance that Nabers could well be a sell-high candidate by midseason.

Lock him in this week, but don’t get out over your skis if he hangs a big number.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR11
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.7
Receptions: 4.9
Receiving Yards: 72.8
Receiving TDs: 0.4

He’s a rookie, I get it. We haven’t seen him beat professionals yet, and I understand that causes some hesitancy.

Relax.

No matter where you stand on rookie receivers, can we not agree that both Harrison and New York’s Malik Nabers should walk into high-volume roles?

Over the past five seasons, a first-round receiver has seen 7+ targets in his first NFL start 11 times:

18.6 PPR PPG
29.3% target share
+12.8% production over expectation

The Bills allowed the third-highest end-zone completion percentage last season at 44.8% (the NFL average was 35%), and I fully expect Harrison to be featured in close.

You drafted this kid as your WR1, and I think you see immediate returns on that investment.

Marvin Mims Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR68
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.4
Receptions: 2.1
Receiving Yards: 35.2
Receiving TDs: 0.1

Did the Broncos show their hand? Could they be in on Mims (17.1 yards per catch as a rookie)? They surprisingly cut Patrick after the final week of the preseason, opening up consistent snaps for an offense that has very little in the way of stability.

I have Mims stashed in a few spots, and while I’ll admit it’s more of a process bet than outright confidence in the player, the train of thought remains. We are getting a decent prospect (63rd overall pick) in an offense that is led by Payton and an unknown at quarterback. Gabe Davis isn’t a perfect comparison, but the former Bill was worthy of a roster spot because you were forced to play him, as there was the potential for a massive week at any time.

Of course, that’s a dual-edged sword, but you know what you’re getting into. The Seahawks allowed the second-highest deep touchdown rate a season ago, so while you’re not plugging Mims into lineups yet, I would put him on the end of rosters for free now before he costs you FAAB or waiver priority should he cash in on this matchup.

Michael Pittman Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR16
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.2
Receptions: 5.9
Receiving Yards: 63.3
Receiving TDs: 0.3

There is certainly a risk that comes with betting on Richardson as a passer, but I don’t think you have to worry about his WR1. Pittman led the position with 51 catches within five yards of the scrimmage last season, and while I think he sees his aDOT expand a bit this season, a reasonable floor should remain.

You could argue that DK Metcalf or Brandon Aiyuk has a higher ceiling this week than Pittman – I’m happy to side with the elevated floor to open the season, and that is why I have Indy’s WR1 inside my top 15 at the position this week.

Michael Wilson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR65
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.2
Receptions: 2.1
Receiving Yards: 31.3
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Wilson’s size profile will have me buying in when the situation is just right, but I need some time to determine what type of matchup profiles as such.

Wilson is facing the defense that allowed just 17 completions of 25+ yards a season ago, easily the top prevention unit in the league. Every other defense allowed at least 22 such plays in 2023.

I think Wilson can assume a valuable role, and that warrants a roster spot, though we have to admit that the target ceiling isn’t high. Thus we must be patient.

Mike Evans’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR8
Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.3
Receptions: 4.6
Receiving Yards: 67.6
Receiving TDs: 0.6

Being out on Evans after the big 2023 season was one of my bolder calls this preseason, and I’m sticking with it. I don’t think he lives up to an ADP that is 50+ spots higher than it was 12 months ago — but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fail every week.

Tampa Bay’s WR1 gets to face a defense that allowed 16 touchdown passes of 25+ yards last season. Yes, that led the league. Obviously. In fact, it was more such scores than the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers, and Giants allowed combined.

Evans caught nine touchdown passes of 15+ air yards last season, the most in the league and good for a career-best.

In short, I don’t want you knocking on my virtual door to troll me about the Evans dud season prediction. I made that call knowing what stood in front of him in Week 1.

Mike Williams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR60
Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.8
Receptions: 2.4
Receiving Yards: 33.4
Receiving TDs: 0.2

We hear that he could be eased in like Breece Hall was last season. The running back’s snap count was managed, yes, but he touched the ball on 46.9% of his snaps through two weeks, a nearly identical rate to the rest of his season (47.3%).

The path to Williams paying off my sleeper prediction is for him to work back to full health when it matters most. I stand by him being roster-worthy, but there are 50+ receivers I’d rather roll the dice on this week (Khalil Shakir, Michael Wilson, and Joshua Palmer among my favorite dart throws of the week).

Nico Collins’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR14
Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.2
Receptions: 4.9
Receiving Yards: 71.5
Receiving TDs: 0.3

Nico Collins is going to rank higher for me than for you most weeks – get used to it.

Collins was the second-most efficient receiver in yards per route run last season. Collins was the second-best receiver in terms of fantasy points over expectations last season. He gave us top-five production at the position five times last season, a year in which he was working into his WR1 role with a rookie under center.

Now, his role is defined, and his QB is viewed as an MVP favorite and not an inexperienced prospect. I’ll step off my Collins soapbox, but the case is straightforward. As for this matchup, all he did was torch the Colts for 16 catches, 341 yards, and two touchdowns on his 18 targets.

The Colts were a bottom-10 team in defensive success rate, and they weren’t confident enough in the backend of their secondary to bring the heat and speed up opposing signal callers (third-lowest blitz rate). If you’re telling me that C.J. Stroud is going to be able to relax in the pocket in a game that is on my shortlist for bets when it comes to the highest-scoring contest of Week 1 – I’ll take my chances with his rising star.

You drafted Collins as a starter, and you’re starting him with confidence. There’s no news there. What I would caution against is the instinct to consider selling high should he post a big number – it won’t be the last time.

Puka Nacua’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR9
Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.4
Receptions: 5.4
Receiving Yards: 76.7
Receiving TDs: 0.3

He shook off a preseason injury and appears ready to pick up where he left off as a rookie. We saw his role slowly extend down the field last season, and he could well take the top off of this vulnerable Lions defense in addition to the highly efficient targets that he is so good at earning within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

In 2023, Detroit had the third-highest opponent aDOT, and allowed 40 completions on passes that traveled 25+ yards in the air. Nacua can pay off your optimism without the big play and has the potential to break the slate any time he and Stafford make a splash.

Rashid Shaheed’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR54
Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
Receptions: 2.2
Receiving Yards: 35.8
Receiving TDs: 0.2

I’m of the belief that Shaheed is good at football, but at a loaded position, he’s more of a DFS play than someone to consider for annual lineups until he becomes a 6-8 target per game asset.

For those daily contests, Shaheed is a live wire this week. He and Olave both had 40+ yard grabs against these Panthers in Week 2 last season in large part because Carr can just sit back in the pocket and let his athletes roam.

In 2023, Carolina was the second-worst defense in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.

So just blitz, right?

Wrong. The Panthers were dead last in pressure percentage when bringing the extra man.

I don’t expect Shaheed to garner much ownership with a full schedule this week, and we know the upside is there for a single catch to pay off his price tag.

Rome Odunze’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR40
Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
Receptions: 3.1
Receiving Yards: 47.0
Receiving TDs: 0.3

This rookie class has a chance to be remembered as one of the best, and I expect Odunze to post a few ceiling weeks. The question coming into the season is that of a floor — will he be the odd man out on a consistent basis, or can he develop a connection with Williams from the jump?

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Fantasy is a game that sometimes rewards the aggressive and sometimes the conservative. You have the opportunity to be both when it comes to Odunze – you stuck your neck out to draft him, and now you can wait to cash in on your bet without taking the lumps along the way.

Maybe by Week 2, he’s locked in. Maybe not. I’m willing to miss one good week of production before plugging him in as opposed to chasing the breakout and risking multiple dud weeks in the process.

Stefon Diggs’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR30
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
Receptions: 4.1
Receiving Yards: 49.4
Receiving TDs: 0.4

Among the most interesting storylines of the first week (for that matter, the first month) of the season is the usage of Diggs. Will he be used as he was for the majority of his time in Buffalo? Will Houston elect to tier their receiver routes – Dell runs deep, Collins a mix of everything, and Diggs more shallow? Was the late-season decline in 2023 a blip on the radar or a red flag?

We will get those answers with time, and until then, he’s going to occupy my “you can Flex him, but he’s not a must-play” tier of receiver. Sorry for the long name and some fence-sitting, but I’m a straight shooter, and the honest truth is that we aren’t sure what his role is going to look like just yet.

Of course, I have my guesses. Last season, the Bills were beating their head against a wall with their WR1. Instead of adapting to what they saw on the field, they, more-or-less, kept his role the same and prayed the production would resurface. In the second half of the season, he didn’t stop running deeper routes (his aDOT dropped just 5.1%, well within the range of expected variance over a small sample) despite a lack of success on such plays.

Weeks 1-10: 58.6% catch rate on deep passes
Weeks 11-18: 20% catch rate on deep passes

We know Stroud wants to punish defenses down the field, and we know he had the weapons to do so before Diggs was acquired. If they elect to leverage his experience and route running, he could have a very successful season that mirrors something like peak Diontae Johnson. If not, we could be looking at a frustrating player who struggles to string productive weeks together on a weekly basis.

I have confidence that Houston will put the pieces together with time, but expecting another season with over 1,100 yards and at least eight touchdowns, something he did every season in Buffalo, is dangerous. Both he and Dell are going to live in that fringe top-30 range for me at the position until we have a better feel as to the quantity (and quality) of targets that both are seeing.

Tank Dell’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR35
Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.3
Receptions: 2.9
Receiving Yards: 44.2
Receiving TDs: 0.4

I was one of the many who doubted Dell after a nice preseason performance last August, writing it off as simply a nice prospect making plays against inferior competition.

As it turns out, even elite competition had a problem all season with the third-round pick out of Houston (709 yards and seven scores in 11 games). Dell’s slight frame (165 pounds) didn’t stop him from earning 10+ targets on four occasions last season or averaging 15.1 yards per catch.

Given his development during the season, there is plenty of reason to think he can be an outlier at his size (DeVonta Smith is the only sub-170-pound receiver with a 100-target season over the past decade). That said, he did get injured to close last season, and he was held under 60 yards in six games a season ago.

His first impactful fantasy game did come against these Colts and it came basically with him winning on only one type of route.

Beginning to look at Week 1 #FantasyFootball matchups. Tank Dell gave us this route tree in Week 2 against Indy.

Doesn't look great, but he still produced 7-72-1.

He's better now and the Texans threaten in more ways. What stat line do you think he opens the season with? pic.twitter.com/9YcGYzqsN1

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024

I like what he brings to the table and am encouraged to watch him grow alongside Stroud, but with an uptick in target competition, I do have my concerns about labeling him as a locked-and-loaded WR2 from the jump this season.

You can plug him in as your Flex and embrace this game’s high point total. That said, I would still prefer the other light receiver (Smith) and would side with receivers like Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, or even Brian Thomas Jr. – receivers who I feel I have a better read for their Week 1 role.

Tee Higgins’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR28
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
Receptions: 3.7
Receiving Yards: 54.6
Receiving TDs: 0.4

And we all thought Higgins would be the most disgruntled Bengal receiver in Cincy entering the season. It hasn’t been a banner offseason for the Orange and Black, but Higgins has been with the team and, regardless of Chase’s status, might be most well-positioned to make a mark against a stingy Patriots defense.

Last season, 12 of the top 14 WR performances against New England saw that player post at least a 9.8 aDOT in that game, with the average being far higher than that (13.4).

Since the start of 2022 on passes from Joe Burrow:

Higgins: 11.5 aDOT
Chase: 9.5 aDOT

Higgins was viewed as the bottom of the “you’re very good, but you’re still the WR2 in your own offense” tier of receivers, getting picked up to two rounds after Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Even in a tough matchup, I have him ranked ahead of two of those three and believe he’s a locked-in WR2.

Terry McLaurin’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR29
Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
Receptions: 4.1
Receiving Yards: 56.6
Receiving TDs: 0.2

Last season wasn’t pretty, as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 yards per route run. Bringing in an athletic quarterback is no lock to fix that efficiency problem, but I like the chances of this offense being in scoring positions more often this year than last. That gives their unquestioned top target earner a chance to produce his best season.

Even in an uneven 2023 campaign, McLaurin posted six top-24 finishes (two top-10s). On the opposing sideline is a less-than-intimidating secondary, making his sheer volume of projectable looks worthy of a top-30 ranking. I’d play him in Tampa Bay over the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jayden Reed, two receivers who are on far superior offenses but figure to see 2-4 fewer opportunities.

Starting McLaurin this week is a bit of a leap of faith given how little we know about Daniels at the professional level, but if he is as dynamic on the ground as we assume and his passing grades are near accurate, his WR1 should be able to do enough in PPR formats to reward your trust in a plus-matchup.

Tyler Lockett Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR51
Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.0
Receptions: 2.8
Receiving Yards: 36.3
Receiving TDs: 0.3

Counting out this veteran isn’t for the faint of heart, but with seven games last season with three or fewer receptions, it’s impossible to enter 2024 with confidence.

Lockett will turn 32 later this month and is coming off of his worst season in terms of fantasy points to expectation since 2017. I have him positioned to be the fantasy WR3 in this offense, and that means it’ll take the perfect matchup for him to move onto my Flex radar — I don’t think this is that with Denver blitzing at the fourth-highest rate last season.

What made Lockett special for years was his ability to win deep and connect with Russell Wilson on those bombs. Things aren’t the same with Smith; if the Broncos are going to bring the heat, he’s not going to have the time needed to land the type of splash play that you’d need to justify going this direction.

Tyreek Hill’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: WR1
Fantasy Points (PPR): 23.3
Receptions: 8.0
Receiving Yards: 108.8
Receiving TDs: 0.7

Do I think he could beat Noah Lyles in a race? Probably not, but put both in pads, and I think the difference is even greater in Hill’s favor than it would be in Lyles’ without pads.

There you go. Those are the types of thought exercises a Hill manager needs to go through because there is no question if you’re starting him (seven top-five finishes at the position in 2023).

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