Week 9 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 9 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. NO)
The veteran receiver has missed five straight games due to a hamstring injury but was designated for a return last week and could get back on the field this weekend against a Saints team that is taking on water.
There’s no actionable advice here — not yet. The Panthers have their bye in Week 11, so stashing Thielen this week only to drop him for roster help isn’t a sound strategy. I find it unlikely that a Bryce Young target is going to be consistently worth our while, but fantasy championships are won by those who keep tabs on everything.
I’ll be watching both Young and Thielen in the coming weeks. The Panthers get the Cardinals in Week 16 and the Bucs in Week 17; those matchups are juicy enough to have my attention.
A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. JAX)
Everything in Brown’s advanced profile is up except for his involvement in the red zone (targeted on 12.5% of his red-zone routes, down from 26.3% a year ago), and I’m willing to write that off as something that will come around with time.
Could he be the slate breaker you need in a DFS or Guillotine league? The Jaguars own the lowest blitz rate in the league thus far (14.2%), and Brown has turned 20 targets into 15 catches for 333 yards and three trips to the end zone when Hurts isn’t blitzed.
Brown is coming off of the worst game by his insane standards of the season and he might follow it up with his best.
Alec Pierce | IND (at MIN)
Remember when Pierce had 38.1 fantasy points through two weeks and fantasy nation wondered if they had stumbled upon a game-changer in the late rounds of their drafts?
Fun times.
He has 35.3 points in the six games since, and 13.5 came on a single catch. Any week in which Anthony Richardson is healthy is a week that Pierce could return value — but it’s also a week that the lowest-ranked signal caller in our QB+ metric can render him completely useless. That’s not going to be the case in the short term with Richardson benched, though an increase in mean QB play isn’t to be viewed as a negative.
If you’re dealing with a depleted roster and fighting an uphill battle, go ahead and buy this lottery ticket, even with Flacco under center, against the defense with the 10th-highest opponent completion percentage on deep passes. If you have a competitive roster, it’s because you’ve avoided players like Pierce, and I’d keep with the status quo in that situation.
Allen Lazard | NYJ (vs. HOU)
A chest injury resulted in Allen Lazard sitting last week. We shouldn’t be surprised that he is dinged up, as Lazard has completed just one season (2019) from start to finish in his NFL career.
Could he return on a short work week against an average defense? It’s possible, but nothing I saw from Lazard’s usage in Davante Adams’ debut with the team suggested that he should be rostered, let alone Flexed.
In Week 7, Lazard’s on-field target share fell from 17.3% to 16%, and his slot rate from 41.6% to 28.1%. I’d imagine those rates only decline further with time, and that’s assuming full health.
If you wanted to play the “Aaron Rodgers trusts him” narrative and overlook a dip in scoring equity or layup targets, I might bite. But without both seemingly evaporating, you’re chasing what has happened with Lazard this season as opposed to projecting forward.
We get back into the bye-week flow this week, which is going to result in some roster decisions. For my money, if you’re playing Lazard, you’re desperate, and if you’re desperate, why not bet on a player like Gabe Davis (big-play threat with Christian Kirk out for the season) or Cedric Tillman moving forward?
Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. MIA)
Amari Cooper played just one-third of the snaps in his Buffalo debut and was extended to 50.7% in the blowout win over Seattle in Week 8. His usage patterns have not been too noteworthy (slightly less slot usage due to Khalil Shakir’s presence) as we haven’t seen enough routes to make any firm claims.
We’ve seen Cooper win big in the lead role, and I tend to think that is what is most likely to occur as the season progresses. Shakir is currently my highest-ranked receiver on this team, though I think there are three very playable options.
Remember last December when Cooper finished with a bang (22 catches, 451 yards, and three scores over the final three weeks)? I’m not suggesting we see something similar this year, but with the Rams, Lions, and Patriots on the books for Weeks 15-17, his best could come at the perfect time.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at GB)
That’s now five straight games with a touchdown for St. Brown, as he has added scoring savant to the tools already in his expansive bag. Is there anything he can’t do?
His aDOT is down a tick this season, something that could make him slightly less appealing in this specific matchup against a Packers defense that is constantly attacked downfield (fifth highest opponent aDOT), but we are nitpicking at the tippy-top of the ranking board.
St. Brown cleared 16.5 PPR points in both games against the Cheeseheads a season ago, and expecting similar production on Sunday is plenty fair.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at PHI)
Initial reports of Thomas’ chest injury suggested that we were looking at an absence of up to a month, but Doug Pederson said on Monday that an MRI revealed just a contusion and that his star rookie was to be labeled as “day-to-day.”
It should be noted that we’ve seen day-to-day injuries drag on for weeks and week-to-week injuries result in only a few missed days. So, yeah, you’re going to want to keep tabs on this situation before making any final decisions.
If Thomas is active, he’s a starter; he’s earned that level of trust with a 28+ yard catch and a touchdown in four of his past five games. I loved to see the season-high slot usage (34.5% of routes) last weekend, as it showcases his versatility.
Time will tell if Thomas is the best receiver in this class. That’s an argument for another day, but he’s a locked-in fantasy starter when active, and that’s not going to change any time soon.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs. NE)
Calvin Ridley’s 118 first-quarter receiving yards were the 10th most in a first quarter since the start of 2015 and came out of nowhere, given that he entered the game with 56 receiving yards in his previous four games.
The next three quarters played out like the first seven weeks (25 receiving yards), and that is why Ridley still doesn’t make it into Fltex conversations for me. His role is clear, and the targets aren’t going anywhere, but the floor/ceiling combination isn’t worth it.
He’s the unquestioned alpha in an offense that is going to be playing from behind consistently, and somehow he has one — count ‘em, one — end-zone target. You’re chasing 15 good minutes and overlooking a month of struggles, and that’s a good way to lose ground in your fantasy standings.
Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs. LAC)
Jameis Winston was spreading the ball around in his first start, but it was clear that the 6’3″ Tillman had his trust from the jump (7-99-2). Sure, one of those scores was on a defensive miscommunication, but Winston made the Ravens pay for it, something we didn’t see from this Browns passing game under Deshaun Watson.
You likely added Tillman this week, and I think you bought in on his upside, but I’d be surprised if he ran away with the Flex role on your roster. At the time of his third-quarter touchdown, Tillman was one of four Browns targeted at least five times on Winston’s first 27 passes.
In a similar way that Joe Flacco is going to bring professionalism to Indianapolis, I expect Winston to do that in Cleveland — it’s good for the team but not great for fantasy managers.
Tillman is my WR40 this week. I think he’s a good player with a safe role, though painting Winston as a consistent QB is not a step I’m ready to take. The Chargers simply don’t play in fantasy-friendly games (their next game with 40 total points scored will be their first this season).
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at ATL)
Lamb is easily pacing for a third straight season north of 150 targets, and the Cowboys showed last week that they aren’t shy about going in that direction on every single down once they establish him early until the opposition proves they have an answer.
He accounted for the majority of Dallas’ receptions last week in San Francisco, not an outcome that most have in their profiles. The Falcons haven’t yet allowed a receiver to crack 19 PPR fantasy points this season, but they’ve also struggled to keep opposing WR1s out of the end zone (Mike Evans, Rashee Rice, DK Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson all scored in this matchup).
You’re splitting hairs at the top of the WR board every week. Lamb checks in as my WR4 (my WR1 Tier 1 is five players long), and while I’ll pay up elsewhere in a DFS setting, no one is going to have a problem with you going in this direction.
Chris Olave | NO (at CAR)
Olave missed a game with a concussion and then was banged up again last week before turning in his most involved effort of the season. The star receiver was targeted on 31.1% of his routes, and if we are going to continue to get well-below-average play under center in New Orleans, it’s going to take that sort of involvement to make him an option.
Head injuries are difficult to judge, and while we can’t predict them, there is a level of risk you take on when starting a player who has battled recent issues.
With Derek Carr back, Olave bumps into my top 20 with ease and isa play across all formats.
Christian Kirk | JAX (at PHI)
Kirk had a nice three-game run in Weeks 3-5, but he’s underwhelmed ever since and won’t get the opportunity to make right for fantasy managers after his season came to an end in Week 8 due to a broken collarbone.
Fantasy managers can safely cut ties with him in all redraft formats and try to find an upside option on the waiver wire. In doing so, I’d look elsewhere than his direct replacement in Jacksonville, as it isn’t the least bit clear.
Slot usage in Jacksonville, 2024:
- Kirk: 77.5%
- Evan Engram: 33.8%
- Brenton Strange: 30.6%
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 23.9%
- Gabe Davis: 17.6%
- Travis Etienne Jr.: 1.1%
Christian Watson | GB (vs. DET)
Watson has a pair of big gains this season (37 and 44 yards), but that’s about all his 2024 résumé has on it. Outside of those two grabs, the burner is averaging 0.94 yards per route this season, a rate that doesn’t deserve our interest at all.
If you squint hard enough, you might be able to mine value from Watson in specific spots (I have my eyes on the Thanksgiving date with the Dolphins), but this isn’t one of them. Through eight weeks, the Lions have the fifth-lowest opponent passer rating on deep passes; that’s enough to talk me out of swinging for the fences.
For the record, the run-centric, low-octane (6.7 aDOT) stylings of Malik Willis will have Watson off my radar for any starts he makes.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (at SEA)
Eight targets. Touchdown.
Kupp returned last Thursday after missing more than a month and gave you his standard production. Did you know that, since the start of 2021, playoffs included, Tyreek Hill is the only player with more games of eight targets and a touchdown reception?
Being on a list with Hill is great without any context, but when you recall that Kupp has missed 17 games over that stretch, it’s downright silly. Nacua’s early usage was the primary takeaway for most, and that’s not wrong — though it shouldn’t be overlooked that Kupp saw an end-zone target on the first drive and capped the second one with a score as Stafford had an out-of-body scrambling moment.
Kupp can be trusted in all formats, which should go without saying. If you like Nacua? No worries.
When the Lions faced this Seahawks defense, both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams scored. Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle scored on three of their eight catches in this spot in Week 6, and just 10 days later, Kyle Pitts and Drake London accounted for the majority of Atlanta’s receptions against Seattle’s secondary.
Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BAL)
One week after playing 86.9% of the snaps and not seeing a single target, Sutton hauled in eight of 11 looks for his first 100-yard game since Week 2, 2022.
Such is life in a Bo Nix-led offense.
While I like what I’ve seen from the rookie QB, he’s a ways away from leading a stable fantasy offense, and I fear that this peaks-and-valleys season that Sutton has going (three games with 15+ points and three with under 5.5) is what we can expect moving forward.
I don’t mind players like that in a stable situation. It’s not ideal, but I can talk myself through it being a Xaiver Worthy week in Kansas City or a Christian Watson week in Green Bay thanks to their quarterback’s ability to exploit very specific matchup edges.
It doesn’t always work, but I can feel good about my process with players like that. Sutton doesn’t fall into that bucket. He lit up Carolina last week, but his other recent strong performances have come against well above average secondaries (Chargers and Jets) while the woeful Saints shut him out and the Raiders held him to 5.2 PPR points.
He’s a random number generator. As long as you label him as such, you’re free to do whatever you’d like with him because you know what you’re signing up for. That’s my job — to make you a well-informed consumer.
I’d rather take smaller swings and, therefore, will never have Sutton ranked as a top-30 receiver.
Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. WAS)
Despite what we saw last week (108 receiving yards against the Steelers), I’m still labeling Slayton as nothing more than a Malik Nabers handcuff. The 43-yard catch on Daniel Jones’ first pass in Pittsburgh was fun, but is it predictive?
Before Week 8, Slayton’s production was at least 30% under expectations in the three most recent games that included a healthy Nabers; when you factor in a limited target share in those spots, that’s a damning profile.
This is a tempting matchup, especially if you think this game shoots out, but I’m not excited about the WR2 in an offense as inconsistent as this one.
Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs. DAL)
Mooney’s value given his summer ADP has been nothing short of special, as he has a 25-yard catch or a touchdown in five of his past seven games. He’s been a reliable WR2 for the Falcons and a viable Flex play for fantasy managers this season, though I worry about his status as such this weekend.
Target rate when Kirk Cousins is blitzed, 2024:
- Drake London: 33.9%
- Mooney: 21.3%
Target rate when Cousins is not blitzed, 2024:
- London: 22.3%
- Mooney: 21.6%
With the Cowboys blitzing at the seventh-highest rate this season (30%), I fear that a low-volume day could result in a single-digit performance. I do think this game sees plenty of points put on the board, so getting a piece of the action isn’t an awful idea. However, if you have a few similar options (Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey types), I’d go in the other direction.
Davante Adams | NYJ (vs. HOU)
DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper were eased into their new situations post-trade, a ramp-up period that Adams didn’t need given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers (94.6% snap share in his two weeks with the squad).
He may not have needed time to digest the playbook, but it’s clear that he needs time to find his form. In those two games, he’s turned 15 targets into just 15.4 PPR fantasy points. I think it’s pretty easy to assume that better times are ahead, though the 8.4-yard aDOT is interesting.
Part of what made the Rodgers/Adams connection special was their unspoken communication down the field and in scoring situations. I don’t doubt that they still have it, but we’ve yet to see it. Adams is a middling WR2 until proven otherwise, especially if it’s going to be Garrett Wilson as the featured option when it comes to field stretching.
DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. TB)
Hopkins pulled down a 13-yard pass on Kansas City’s third play in his debut with the team; that was great to see, but it taught us very little.
I think this week and next will be informative and could prove to be a set of games that you come back to when all is said and done. What role does Hopkins fill in this offense? Do they get creative with him and ask Xavier Worthy to stretch the field, or do they move Worthy around and ask the veteran to make the contested plays he’s done for a decade?
If I roster Hopkins, I want the latter. I’m confident that he can prove to be the most efficient player on those passes in this offense, something I’m not as confident in regarding the shorter targets given Travis Kelce’s presence.
Hopkins was on the field for just 32.4% of the Chiefs snaps last week in the win against the Raiders. I’d expect one more ramp-up week before he’s a full-time player, and that gives me enough pause to rank him as an average Flex option, even in a game against the ninth-worst pass defense in terms of passer rating.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at SEA)
Robinson scoring twice on Thursday night was cute and saved you if you elected to play him with the thought that his banged-up returning teammates were going to be limited, but he’s on his way off of fantasy radars.
Despite a 90.3% snap share this season (83% in Week 8), Robinson hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since Week 1. That’s not going to change moving forward. His 17.9-yard aDOT, in theory, should come preloaded with upside. But with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua capable of winning their routes in such a hurry, why would Matthew Stafford give Robinson time to operate downfield?
Dropping a receiver after a two-touchdown game isn’t easy, but it’s viable should you be in a roster crunch. The play might be to look for a minor upgrade in a trade somewhere in your starting lineup — a deal that sees you upgrade your RB2 for your current RB2 and Robinson, or something along those lines. Refining your roster in ways like that can prove to be the difference between winning your title and coming up just short.
DeMario Douglas | NE (at TEN)
“Pop” averages just 9.7 yards per catch this season, something I’m willing to overlook if the volume is safe, but it hasn’t been. Not consistently, at least.
Douglas has exactly three or nine targets in six straight games. Not only is that one of the weirder stats I’ve crossed this week, but it’s enough to outright dismiss the chain mover as a viable option. This offense is too limited to invest in inconsistencies, and that’s what we are currently getting from Douglas.
There’s a world in which a player like Douglas thrives in a Drake Maye system, but we aren’t close to that at the moment.
DeVonta Smith| PHI (vs. JAX)
Any worries about his ability to make plays were dismissed by a pretty over-the-shoulder 45-yard TD (all air yards), as Jalen Hurts had no reservations about going his way in single coverage. That may sound simple, but given the resources that opponents have to devote to A.J. Brown and this ground game, single coverage is going to be the norm.
There will be matchups where my ranking gap between Brown and Smith is 15-20 spots, but that’s not the case in this one. The Jaguars allow the fourth-highest passer rating when opponents throw to their receivers, and Smith, whose aDOT is 28.8% lower than Brown’s, profiles as the primary beneficiary due to Jacksonville owning the third-lowest opponent average depth of throw.
Smith gives the Eagles a lead with a few big plays and Gabe Davis is on the receiving end of a bomb with the Jags in catch-up mode — who says no to this skinny DFS stack?
Diontae Johnson | BAL (vs. DEN)
Johnson was dealt from Carolina to Baltimore on Tuesday, as big a team trajectory change as he could possibly hope for. He’s plenty capable of winning in the slot, but he moved outside more this year when playing alongside Adam Thielen.
While Zay Flowers isn’t as pigeonholed role-wise as the aging Thielen, I expect his 39.6% slot participation to sustain, thus requiring Todd Monken to be creative when it comes to the usage of his newest chess piece.
We’ve seen plenty of receivers moved over the past few weeks (DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, etc.), and they’ve been eased into action. I suspect that will be the case here. That means I’m taking a cautious approach.
Johnson is a Flex play for me this week, understanding that better days are ahead. This trade elevates his status for the remainder of the regular season. While I think he takes a little food off the plate of Flowers, it’s the tight end position that will be most impacted for our purposes.
DJ Moore | CHI (at ARI)
Once over the past month has Moore reached 30 receiving yards in a game. He did it in style (105 yards and two scores in the Week 5 win over the Panthers), but a 25% hit rate for that threshold isn’t exactly what we are looking for.
More concerning than the raw box score numbers is that Moore has posted his two worst target-share-rate games of the season in Chicago’s past two. I’m inclined to write off the recent struggles as part of the learning curve with a rookie QB, but I’m nervous.
This, however, profiles as a nice get-right spot. The Cardinals own the second-highest opponent passer rating on receiver targets and are a bottom-10 unit when it comes to defending short passes (yards per attempt). Moore’s slot usage has ticked lately, and that should allow him to return viable Flex numbers in a game that Vegas has labeled as a coin flip.
Moore’s slot usage rates, 2024:
- Week 3 at Colts: 2.5% of routes
- Week 4 vs. Rams: 14.3% of routes
- Week 5 vs. Panthers: 18% of routes
- Week 6 vs. Jaguars: 31.4% of routes
- Week 8 at Commanders: 17.5% of routes
I have dreams that Caleb Williams will funnel targets to his WR1 moving forward the way he did to open his career (28 targets through Week 3 and 23 since), and if the quality of those looks is improved, we could be onto something coming down the stretch of the fantasy season.
DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. LAR)
Metcalf got the “week-to-week” designation last week due to a Grade 1 MCL sprain. While he wasn’t officially ruled out until the last minute, he never appeared to be likely to play last week. Does the dragging out of his status last week indicate that his rehab could be ahead of pace?
It’s possible, and there’s no two ways about it, this is a situation you’re going to have to watch all week long (we will have you covered with plenty of content around his injury and the receiver position as a whole that seems to be cursed). That said, Metcalf managers should gain comfort given the opponent …
- Five touchdowns in his past six games against the Rams
- At least eight targets in five of his past seven games against the Rams
- Career: 31.1% production over fantasy expectation against the Rams
I worry about the touchdown equity, something that sounds crazy for a beat like Metcalf who has earned five end-zone targets over his past three games, but hear me out. The Rams have been above average in most scoring metrics against the pass. Metcalf, despite the looks in the paint, has been targeted on just 20.8% of his red-zone routes. For reference, his rate was 38% in 2022 and 33.3% last season.
In season-long formats, if he plays, you play him. Easy. In DFS, however, the 57.4% catch rate and declining red-zone usage numbers have me looking elsewhere if spending up at the receiver position.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs. DET)
The tools are in place for Wicks to be a one-off option in the perfect spot, but it would appear that such a spot isn’t going to be projectable barring an injury.
Wicks has been on the field for just 28% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps over the past three weeks, and I don’t care how highly you think of Jordan Love, that’s simply not enough to make him a reasonable Flex option.
On an encouraging note, Wicks’ target rate (targets divided by routes) is up to 28.6% this season, up from 20.4% last season. There are some positive trends to support this profile as a fantasy-viable one with time, but we aren’t there yet.
For the remainder of 2024, unless something changes in a big way, I’m viewing Wicks as a top-10 receiver handcuff more than a player with a realistic hope of working his way into a meaningful role without help.
Drake London | ATL (vs. DAL)
London has scored on or seen an end-zone target in six of his past seven games as Kirk Cousins continues to use him as discount Justin Jefferson, a role that carries a top-12 upside.
His target-earning ability hasn’t taken off in a major way, but with his slot role nearly doubling, his production floor is that of a fantasy difference-maker. Among 42 qualifiers, London leads the way in the percentage of red-zone routes that result in a target (42.9% average: 24.2%). That role has him leading my DFS lineup this week against the worst red-zone defense in the league (Dallas allows a touchdown on 73.9% of opponent trips).
Gabe Davis | JAX (at PHI)
Before getting dinged up last week, Davis had been on the field for over 67% of Jacksonville’s snaps in every game this season.
While his ability to earn looks from Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, he’s likely to be force-fed targets in this spot with the Jags a 7.5-point underdog and without their two top receivers for the foreseeable future (Christian Kirk is out for the season and Brian Thomas Jr.’s timeline is fluid but seems to be on the wrong side of questionable as of today).
Veterans know the deal with Davis; new players, consider yourselves lucky. The only consistent portion of Davis up to this point in his career is inconsistency, so take this sales pitch for what it is: an optimistic view of a profile that comes with as much risk as any player even remotely on your radar.
Lawrence’s deep completion percentage is trending for a career-best, and that is even more impressive when you consider that his average long pass is traveling further this year than in years past.
Davis is averaging 15.2 PPR PPG for his career when seeing at least seven targets per game, a potential he could well fulfill in an expanded role against an Eagles defense that ranks worse than the league average against the deep pass in passer rating, yards per completion, and touchdown rate.
Scared money doesn’t make money — but hopefully, you have different income options.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs. HOU)
The addition of Davante Adams was certainly a blow to Wilson’s ceiling, but it doesn’t undo the foundational connection that seems to have been laid between him and Aaron Rodgers. Last week, he hauled in a 35-yard pass despite being interfered with and saw his first three catches gain over 25 yards.
Wilson isn’t going to be the target vacuum we expected him to be entering this season, but Rodgers is looking his way consistently deep down the field, and that creates a nice weekly ceiling in the right spots.
Is this one of those spots?
I think so. No defense has seen opponents average a higher depth of throw to receivers than the Texans (13.6 yards). Factoring into that trend is the fact that Houston has been increasingly likely to blitz despite limited success in doing so (20th in pressure rate when bringing an extra defender).
Wilson carries a similar risk to players in the middle of my WR2 tier (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Amari Cooper, for example), but I’d argue that his big-play profile in this spot gives him the edge in ceiling outcomes over players of that ilk.
Jake Bobo | SEA (vs. LAR)
The thought process with taking a flier on Bobo last week with DK Metcalf out proved reasonable (74.5% snap share), but when investing in a Geno Smith-led offense, you know the risks are a part of the equation.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vacuumed in seven of the 12 receiver targets in the lopsided loss, and while I expect him to be the featured option, that rate of involvement is unlikely to be sustained. I think this is a better spot, and my thought process remains.
Bobo is a reasonable DFS punt play should Metcalf sit. Heck, he might be a better contrarian play this week than last thanks to a more favorable matchup and fewer people willing to stick their hand over the flame again.
This season, the Seahawks are a bottom-three defense when opponents throw to the perimeter in terms of passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate. The Rams’ offense should continue to trend in the right direction as it nears full strength; if Seattle is playing from behind, the 6’4″ Bobo has access to a strong per-dollar production role.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (at CIN)
What made Meyers good on Sunday? A season-low 5.8-yard aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury), which is the only path for me to trust anyone in an offense as limited as it is.
Meyers showcased the ability to make the most of this situation last season with eight scores, and while this situation is a little different sans Davante Adams, he’s back on the Flex radar against the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the league.
The game script figures to work in his favor, and if we can get him 8-10 targets, the percentages say that a top-35 week is likely. For reference, I’d rather play Meyers in his new role as the WR1 in Vegas than Tank Dell operating under the same promotion in Houston.
Jalen McMillan | TB (at KC)
Snaps (90%) and looks (seven targets) weren’t the issue last week, and that’s a positive as we look to build super teams. We thought that he would fill the Mike Evans role, and his 14.6-yard aDOT would suggest that was accurate, but it turns out that you can’t just plug in a rookie and assume he’ll replicate the production of a future Hall of Famer.
Evans will miss another game, and that puts McMillan on the Flex radar, though I’m not crazy about tempting fate against a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate and yards per pass.
The rookie settles in as my WR39, ranking in the same tier of usable waiver wire additions as Jake Bobo and Cedric Tillman.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (at ATL)
I maintain my thought that Tolbert’s role as the WR2 in this offense gives him a path to Flex value (he’s produced over expectations in five straight games), but even I can’t express much in the way of short-term optimism.
Despite the Cowboys ranking eighth in pass rate over expectation this season, Tolbert has crossed 50 receiving yards in just one of his past five games. Watching the 25-year-old is my suggestion, but I have no problem if you want to watch him from a distance.
Ja’Lynn Polk | NE (at TEN)
The rookie has passed through concussion protocol and was not listed on New England’s final injury report.
Polk went through the entire month of October without a multi-catch effort, and his 0.44 yards per route this season is closing in on disturbing. Dynasty managers will be watching any reps with Drake Maye carefully, but that’s the extent of the fantasy interest right now in the 37th overall pick.
Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs. LV)
Chase has scored seven times over his past six games, looking downright unguardable at times. All of his efficiency metrics are trending toward career bests, and against a Raiders team that is one of three to have a higher blitz rate than pressure rate this season, it’s not hard to imagine a comfortable Joe Burrow giving his top target opportunities to break this game open.
My ranking of Chase will not move in a meaningful way based on Tee Higgins’ status — his role is as safe as anyone’s in the league.
Jameson Williams | DET (at GB)
The Year 3 breakout is on hold for at least one more week as he finishes serving his PED suspension, but Williams has more legal troubles surrounding him. This is a situation you’ll want to monitor, but for the time being, he’s a strong option to hold — we’ve seen glimpses of development, and the tools are in place for him to return weekly value.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. LAR)
Is the breakout coming? The second-year receiver has seen his target rate increase in each of the past three weeks, picking up usage as a result of DK Metcalf’s injury. The involvement is one thing, but the ability to make the most of those opportunities is another.
Last week, JSN produced 11.1% over expectation, a massive step forward from his 32.8% below expectation mark from his previous four games. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, something that elevates Smith-Njigba’s projectable usage from the slot.
I’m not hesitating to plug in Seattle’s short-yardage specialist in this game. His ranking will fall back a few spots should Metcalf return but not enough to knock him out of his current “feel fine about starting me” tier.
Jayden Reed | GB (vs. DET)
Reed set up the game-winning field goal last week courtesy of a 51-yard catch and run that came from Malik Willis, further cementing his status as the unquestioned top option in this potent passing attack
The Lions allow the fifth-fewest yards per catch after the reception this season, and that could neutralize Reed’s greatest strength to a degree, but this team has proved plenty capable of getting Reed opportunities (he had 10 of them with a touchdown against Detroit last Thanksgiving). I see no reason to think that chances in this spot.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at BUF)
In the much-awaited return of Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle managers were left disappointed.
- 2024: 8.3 PPG, 4.4% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate
- Week 8: 8.5 PPG, 12.7% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate
It’s almost eerie how similar those numbers are. Is Tagovailoa more a vessel for Tyreek Hill returning to form than Waddle?
I’m not sure I’d go that far, but Hill certainly was the priority against the Cardinals, and I’m expecting that to be the case until proven otherwise. It should be noted that Waddle had a pair of drops last week, receptions that, if made, paint a very different picture.
In my opinion, there’s a pretty clear target hierarchy in Miami. That doesn’t mean that Waddle can’t have an impact, he’s a borderline WR2 for me this week, but it does take some of the shine off of his potential. The Bills hardly blitz (16.1%, second lowest), and I think that’s a good spot for Waddle to rack up the receptions underneath as Buffalo shades coverage toward Hill.
Without the drops last week, we are looking at roughly 13 PPR points, a number that essentially mirrors my projection this week.
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs. LAC)
Five catches for 79 yards may not seem like a step forward, but I promise you, as someone who has been admittedly too high on Jeudy this season, this is good to see.
- Weeks 1-7: 15.6% on-field target share, 18.1% below production expectation, and 52% catch rate
- Week 8: 18.6% on-field target share, 0.3% below expectation, and 62.5% catch rate
As I said, we aren’t celebrating a full-fledged breakout, but there were some breadcrumbs laid last week, and that nourishment is welcomed with open arms by starving Jeudy managers.
Now, that production does need to be contextualized, as it came against one of the most vulnerable pass defenses in the league. And we have years of evidence to suggest that the Jameis Winston experience isn’t a ride that comes without twists and turns. I’m sitting on my Jeudy stock right now, and that’s a step up from the sell position I was toying with in the Deshaun Watson era.
I’m just going to leave this here: Jeudy was a top-10 receiver in Dec. 2022.
Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. IND)
Is Addison that much different than Darius Slayton at this point? The pedigree is on a different level, but when it comes to their roles in 2024, they are deep threats (Addison aDOT: 17.9) that are largely involved when their WR1 is healthy. If Justin Jefferson were to get hurt, I’d go to Addison with similar excitement as I did with Slayton sans Malik Nabers. Without that, we aren’t looking at a roster-worthy player, let alone a Flex option.
Addison has been on the field for over 84% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in three straight games, and he hasn’t finished as a top-50 producer at the position in any of those contests. If Sam Darnold is turning into a pumpkin, it’s not going to cost Jefferson looks and T.J. Hockenson might be pumpkin-proof when he returns — Addison is the one getting squeezed.
Thanks to a rookie season with an elevated touchdown rate, Addison can remain rostered. But, for me, he’s closer to a lineup casualty than a legitimate Flex option.
Josh Downs | IND (at MIN)
Downs certainly looked like the best receiver on this team last week, hauling in a 69-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Richardson and nearly having a 25-yarder later, a play that was reversed from a score to a 24-yard gain courtesy of review.
He might be the best fantasy option among the pass catchers in this offense moving forward, but with Joe Flacco taking over, we get a professional offensive approach, and that is a pair for fantasy managers.
Or is it?
Yes, his seven touchdown passes this season have gone to five different players and that’s annoying. But, in this admittedly small sample size, Downs has been targeted on 34.5% of his routes. For reference, Tyreek Hill was the only player to post a rate like that in 2023.
The type of target is obviously going to look very different between Flacco and Robinson. The depth of target will shrink, but the percentage of targets that are actually in his zip code skyrockets, and that makes him a fine Flex play in all formats against a Vikings defense that is routinely challenged underneath instead of over the top (sixth-lowest opponent aDOT this season).
JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. TB)
Smith-Schuster sat out Week 8 with a hamstring injury (Andy Reid ruled him out on Monday, indicating that a week of rest was needed). If that wasn’t bad enough, the team brought in DeAndre Hopkins via trade.
In theory, Hopkins eats more into the role of Xavier Worthy, and I think that’s right. But we’ve seen the future Hall of Famer showcase route versatility when asked. That brings in risk for Smith-Schuster, a receiver who needs full slot exposure to pay off.
I’ll want to see him fail before assuming it, but this is a low-octane offense that no longer is going to assign the same size of the pie to Smith-Schuster. With the bye week behind him and receivers falling like flies, this is a rosterable player until proven otherwise — just be prepared for the “otherwise” to occur sooner than later.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. IND)
In the first quarter against the Rams on Thursday night, Jefferson hauled in all five of his targets for 68 yards (his teammates had just three catches), but it was Trent Sherfield Sr. and Josh Oliver with the scores. Annoying, but it happens. You take that elite usage and efficiency from Jefferson and understand that you are fortunate enough to have the best receiver in the sport on your roster.
Jefferson submitted a bid for the catch of the year with a bobbling, toe-drag reception, the icing on the cake as he continued his impressive season-opening streak that has seen him clear 90 receiving yards or score every time he’s taken the field.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins were heavily featured receivers earlier this season against Indianapolis — they both cleared 115 receiving yards while leaving a few plays on the field. Jefferson is matchup-proof, and when facing a vulnerable defense, he could well take over this slate.
Kalif Raymond | DET (at GB)
I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to preaching “bad result, good process” when it comes to calls that go sideways, but it’s important to note that there are two sides to that coin.
I was in on Kalif Raymond last week, as I projected him to take on a greater role following the Jameson Williams suspension, and I wanted any exposure I could get to this passing game.
I was right! He scored 15.4 fantasy points and finished the week as WR26. If you started him over Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill … you’re welcome.
I kid. Obviously, you didn’t make those calls, but more importantly, my projection was completely off base. The game got a little goofy due to the score, but Raymond wasn’t on the field any more often than he was through the first seven weeks and ranked sixth among Detroit pass catchers in snaps.
Wrong wrong wrong, but I got bailed out by a seven-yard touchdown and a 90-yard punt return happening within seven minutes of one another. So, thank you. Thank you, fantasy gods. I see you. I hate to think about the price I will have to pay for this gracious gift, but that’s a curse for me to bear, not you.
You shouldn’t be playing Raymond this week. Running hot like last week is nice, but doubling down is dangerous. I have Allen Robinson II, Tim Patrick, and Raymond all ranked in the WR45-55 range, understanding that one of them has a chance to outperform in a significant way but being realistic in acknowledging that it’s little more than a dart throw after learning next to nothing in Week 8 due to the one-sided nature of that game.
Keenan Allen | CHI (at ARI)
Underwhelming. I really don’t have any other words for what we’ve seen from the veteran receiver up to this point. He’s averaging over an end-zone target per game, and yet he has just one top-50 performance under his belt as a member of the Bears.
This is a plus matchup (23rd in yards per slot pass against and 29th in slot TD%), but what proof do we have that the Caleb Williams/Allen connection is worth trusting?
Production relative to expectation, 2024:
- Cole Kmet: +46.1%
- DJ Moore: -6.5%
- Rome Odunze: -16%
- Allen: -22.1%
Allen is a roster-worthy player as a cheap bet on Williams’ development, but we need proof of a plan before inserting him into Flex conversations.
Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. MIA)
This offseason was spent hyping up this rookie receiver class, and Coleman is trending in an ultra-impressive direction with consecutive top-20 finishes, positioning himself to be the next great first-year WR to peak at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
Rookies’ production vs. expectation:
- Brian Thomas Jr.: +43.7%
- Coleman: +29.6%
- Ladd McConkey: +18.6%
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: +14.6%
- Malik Nabers: -6.9%
It’s easy to look at two strong performances in a row from the rookie and tie it to the addition of Amari Cooper, but “easy” and “accurate” aren’t always the same thing.
Coleman’s splits, Weeks 7-8:
- Cooper on the field: 2.3 fantasy points per target, 17.4% target share, and 21.9% slot
- Cooper off the field: 2.5 fantasy points per target, 25% target share, and 8.1% slot
As good as Coleman has been, his role still comes with volatility, volatility that his teammate doesn’t have — and that is why Coleman remains as my third option in Buffalo.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. MIA)
Maybe it’s because we share initials. Maybe it’s because we share Zodiac signs. Maybe it’s because we both spent our early 20s in upstate New York. Or, hear me out — maybe it’s because this man is truly amazing.
Khalil Shakir has caught 91.03% of his targets over his past 18 regular season games. For reference:
Avengers, Rotten Tomatoes: 91.00%
Steph Curry career FT%: 91.00%
Justin Tucker career FG%: 89.67%
UConn NCAAB Win% during repeat: 86.07%@BuffaloBills #BillsMafia— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) October 28, 2024
The Bills offer plenty of flash and have an MVP candidate under center, all of which is taking away from one of the most amazing runs in our game.
Once. One time since the beginning of last season, in regular-season action, have multiple targets to Khalil Shakir hit the ground within a game. His connection with Josh Allen is as rock solid as any in the NFL.
Yes, I understand that Shakir’s 3.6-yard aDOT lends itself to efficiency, but there’s no one in his zip code when it comes to his catch rate since the beginning of last season, and that has made him a PPR lineup staple.
With Buffalo’s implied point total hanging around 28 points for this game, we are introducing some scoring equity to a profile that comes preloaded with an elite floor.
The Dolphins are a below-average defense when it comes to defending the slot (worse than the league average in passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per completion).
However high you are on Shakir, it’s not high enough. He’s a PPR WR2 for me in this spot, putting him alongside names like Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith.
Ladd McConkey | LAC (at CLE)
McConkey played through a hip injury last week to author the best game of his young career (6-111-2) against the Saints, and he has an NFL feel about him as he operates out of the slot.
This offense as a whole may be boring, but Justin Herbert is an above-average QB and one that is capable of elevating talent; so, yeah, I’m buying what this rookie is selling. He has earned at least six targets in six of seven games this season and gets the pleasure of facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed after the catch per reception when opponents target the slot.
A repeat of Week 8’s explosion is unlikely, but another top-30 finish is more than reasonable, and that’s where I have him ranked: as a strong Flex option in PPR formats.
Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. WAS)
There is a little bit of an empty-calorie feel to Nabers’ bananas volume, but the combination of talent and sheer volume is impossible to ignore.
Most targets through six career games since 2000:
- Nabers: 73
- Puka Nacua: 70
- Anquan Boldin: 60
- Chris Olave: 56
Is it true that, since returning from a multi-week concussion absence, he is barely averaging a PPR point per target? Yes (22.2 points on 21 targets), but ebb and flow are to be expected, especially in less-than-ideal spots.
The rookie has already scored 18.7 points in a game against this leaky secondary, one that has allowed seven receivers to reach double figures. The matchup and role create a stable foundation, and Nabers’ ability brings a top-10 week into the conversation every time he laces up his cleats.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs. CHI)
His sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful — his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around and elevate his projectable efficiency.
In this era of instant gratification, we are predisposed to expecting greatness immediately and accepting nothing else. Is it possible that Harrison is worthy of all the hype we gave him this summer and is just slow to realize it?
Through eight weeks, Harrison has produced either 90% over or 45% under expectations five times. His production has been all over the place, and that can happen for a 22-year-old kid tasked with beating adults consistently in a spotty offensive setting.
The Bears are allowing the third-lowest passer rating when receivers are the target, bringing these floor weeks into play. I’m not projecting a dud, but it’s time to adjust your expectations to a WR2 as opposed to the WR1 you hoped you were getting this summer.
I have Harrison ranked on the fringes of the top 20, alongside stable names like Khalil Shakir and similar high-pedigree options that lack consistency around them like Garrett Wilson and DJ Moore.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at MIN)
Pittman was targeted deep down the field on Anthony Richardson’s first pass last week, and I was mentally preparing to be sucked back in with the thought being that they are adjusting Pittman’s role to put him in a position to at least see targets with their YOLO second-year QB.
After 36 hours of trying to talk myself into that — mental hurdles that included falling asleep to the recording of the radio call of that missed target (some people have white noise, I wish cast fantasy production; sue me) — I saw the news break that Joe Flacco was named the Week 9 starter.
Pittman with Anthony Richardson, 2024:
- 27.3% under fantasy expectations
- 13.8 aDOT
- 50% catch rate
Pittman with Joe Flacco, 2024:
- 7.8% over fantasy expectation
- 8.9 aDOT
- 63.2% catch rate
I don’t think there’s any question that this is a positive move for the receiver we presumed was atop this depth chart two months ago, and that makes him a Flex-worthy player.
I worry that he has been surpassed by Josh Downs as the primary target in this offense and we are looking at a low pass rate over expectation projection with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, but I’m cautiously optimistic and have Pittman ranked ahead of names like Tank Dell and DeAndre Hopkins for Week 9.
Michael Wilson | ARI vs. CHI)
I get excited about this kid once a month. The tools are in place, and I like his Robin role to Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Batman, but I think the days of this offense providing us with two usable receivers is probably more of a 2025 thing.
Wilson’s size has allowed him to score three times this season, but he’s totaled just 57 receiving yards across those three games, meaning we aren’t even being rewarded in a big way when he does find paydirt.
Wilson has produced at least 26% over target expectations in three of his past four games and has seen three end-zone targets over the past three weeks. However, I can’t rank him as a top-40 receiver until we see his number called more regularly. His aDOT has been stuck in reverse lately, and that’s simply not the way to attack Chicago (top five against short passes in yards per pass, passer rating, and touchdown rate).
I’m telling you now — I’ll be leading the Wilson hype train this summer. Tickets are available at @KyleSoppePFN with early-bird pricing now available.
Mike Evans | TB (at KC)
The Buccaneers announced last week that Evans (hamstring) would miss four weeks. They went out of their way to say “weeks” and not “games,” thus leading to the expectation that he is back after the Week 11 bye.
That’s not ideal, but at least you’re not left wondering if he’ll suit up in the short term. The cautious approach also allows him to be at full strength for a favorable schedule in Weeks 12-14 (Giants, Panthers, and Raiders) as you look to improve your playoff seed.
Evans may not help you this week or next — if you can tread water, however, he might play a big role in your run to glory.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (vs. NE)
You have to have a hyphenated name to score in three consecutive games. I don’t make the rules, I just follow them. It’s Westbrook-Ikhine and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s your entire list of receivers who have scored in each of their past three games.
On the bright side, he played the majority of snaps for the first time this season (91.5%). On the less bright side, he still plays for the Titans.
Tennessee’s pass ranks, 2024:
- 24th in passing touchdown rate
- 29th in yards per pass attempt
- 32nd in passer rating
- 32nd in interception rate
This is the same offense that has supported two top-40 Calvin Ridley weeks over two months. You missed out on Westbrook-Ikhine’s random touchdown barrage, and that’s OK — the bigger mistake is chasing points that you are unlikely to cash in on in the future.
Puka Nacua | LAR (at SEA)
It was a wild 12 hours ahead of kickoff last week, as Nacua’s status improved rapidly, and he was able to help the Rams potentially save their season with a 30-20 win over the Vikings.
The questions came flooding in once the whispers of his activity came out, a good reminder to stay fluid with your lineup at all times and to always reach out when drastic things like that happen.
Nacua went on to lead this team in catches (seven), targets (nine), and receiving yards (106), capitalizing on a game plan that was pretty clearly designed to make him comfortable (targeted on three of Matthew Stafford’s first throws). His two carries didn’t do much damage (five yards), but that’s not something the team schemes up if not fully confident in his health.
His stat line might not reflect limited reps. But after being on the field for 86.8% of offensive snaps as a rookie, his time spent on the field was certainly watched with a careful eye on Thursday:
Week 8 WR snap rates:
- Demarcus Robinson: 83.3%
- Cooper Kupp: 56.1%
- Puka Nacua: 53%
- Tyler Johnson: 40.9%
- Tutu Atwell: 13.6%
What the team is unable to control, however, is this man’s ability to open up windows for Stafford to throw him the ball. Nacua was targeted on 40.9% of his routes, an absurd rate that ranked as the second-best showing of his career and 12.9 percentage points ahead of his historic rookie season as a whole.
We could waste time in arguing which receiver is the alpha in this offense (I like the slot against Seattle and Kupp was there nearly three times as often as Nacua last week). But no matter your stance there, if you have one of them, you’re plugging him in with the utmost confidence in a game that could easily be a shootout.
Quentin Johnston | LAC (at CLE)
Note: Johnston was limited on Wednesday before logging a full practice on Thursday — he appears ready to return to the field.
The ankle injury continues to nag at Johnston, resulting in another DNP last week. He wasn’t ruled out until Sunday, but that doesn’t matter to me — we are talking about a fringe receiver on a low-octane offense. Not only do I need him practicing in full, I need glowing reports out of Los Angeles to believe this second-year receiver is even rosterable let alone in the mix for a starting spot in my lineup.
We remember the few splash plays from September because we were worried about having to eat our words in burying him after a dreadful rookie season. But those are about his only highlights to date. In his five games played, he has one top-35 finish this season and has seen 55.5% of his production come on touchdown receptions.
I don’t love the reliance on scoring for anyone, but I can overlook it in an explosive offense. There are a lot of adjectives to describe this Bolts offense, but let’s stick with “not explosive” as a descriptor to keep me employed and you reading this novel to your children as a bedtime story.
What? You’re saying that’s not how you use these 25,000+ words each week? I’m not a parent, but that feels inefficient. You are assured they will be bored to sleep by the time you reach this portion of the proceedings (trust me, my wife is a full-grown woman and was snoring by the time I got to my well-thought-out stance on Demarcus Robinson) and doing your Week 9 homework at the same time. Sounds like A+ parenting to me!
Anyway, this is the rare chance to make fantasy simple — it’s not an absolutely perfect spot for Johnston (health or matchup), so there is no reason to whisper his name again this week. Maybe he’s worth a stash with the Bengals and Ravens coming up in Weeks 11-12 (Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, Drake London, Ja’Marr Chasee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Chris Olave all have byes over that stretch), but that’s as far as I’m willing to go.
Rome Odunze | CHI (at ARI)
Playing Odunze is a rookie parlay that I simply can’t wrap my head around. He was the seventh-best receiver in fantasy in Week 3, showing us what is possible for years to come in this Chicago offense, but the fact that he hasn’t once been a top-45 receiver since then tells you all you need to know about the decision-making process for Week 9.
This is exactly the type of receiver I keep rostered but never play. That may feel like a waste of a roster spot and it could be, but I’m comfortable burning a bench spot with the hope that these two can find a rhythm with 2-3 months of NFL reps.
Romeo Doubs | GB (vs. DET)
I don’t want to over-simplify things, but I generally look to play Doubs when I think he has a better-than-average chance of scoring, and that’s it. For his career, 10.2% of his receptions have finished in the end zone, a nice skill set to have in this top-10 offense. However, I’m not ready to trust it regularly until he shows a greater ability to earn targets consistently.
I love what I saw last week from him, and that’s a start. Jordan Love trusted him enough to fire a 25-yard pass his way in the two-minute drill, trusting him in a single-coverage spot. Doubs also set up a Josh Jacobs touchdown by forcing a 21-yard pass interference penalty, another good sign when it comes to his connection with his QB.
My concern here is two-fold: 1) the risk that comes with Love being banged up the week before the bye and 2) Detroit being the top defense in terms of end-zone completion percentage (three completions on 19 attempts).
Starting a Packer receiver any week in which Love is calling the shots isn’t a bad option, though I do have players like Josh Downs and Keon Coleman ranked higher this week for those being asked to make a tight Flex decision.
Stefon Diggs | HOU (at NYJ)
Diggs pulled up lame last week without much contact, and our fears were confirmed on Tuesday afternoon — torn ACL, out for the season.
Diggs has been far more productive this season than I had projected, carving out a nice niche in this offense, but he won’t play any role in your fantasy team’s ability to make a run to glory.
Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III will see an uptick in snaps, but unless the “R” in your PPR league stands for “routes,” I wouldn’t try to replace one Texan with another.
Elijah Moore and Gabe Davis are receivers who are widely available and are worth a look.
Tank Dell | HOU (at NYJ)
Dell scored his second touchdown of the season last week, though he was fortunate to have the opportunity. If Anthony Richardson doesn’t throw an impossible-to-comprehend interception inside of his own 20-yard line in the final minute of the first half, we are potentially looking at a 3-28-0 stinker from Dell and asking a lot of questions.
With Nico Collins still on IR (eligible to come off next week) and Stefon Diggs done for the season, I could see why your gut reaction would be to push Dell into the WR2 tier with the thought being that his target volume is set to increase in a meaningful way.
That might be true, but are we sure that’s what we want from a 5’10”, 165-pound receiver?
Dell is currently WR58 on a PPR PPG basis. Care to guess how many of the 57 receivers ranked ahead of him stand no taller than 5’10”?
There are only six, and two of them are now on the same team (Zay Flowers and Diontae Johnson). This body type rarely wins consistently across the NFL, and while the Jets have the second-highest opponent average depth of target when throwing to receivers, the amount of traffic that Dell is likely to see makes those feel more like prayer yards than anything.
My confidence in Dell will be higher once Collins returns and the schedule lightens. In this spot, I’d rather ride the wave of Keon Coleman or take more “sure” things like Ladd McConkey or Wan’Dale Robinson.
Tee Higgins | CIN (vs. LV)
A quad injury at Friday’s practice resulted in Higgins being a late add to the injury report and ultimately resulted in him sitting out against the Eagles. Week 8 was his third missed game of the season and eighth over the past two years, introducing more health risks than the star receiver had through his first three NFL seasons (four total missed games). As for what we saw before last week’s DNP:
Chase:
- 37 targets (two in the end zone)
- 29 catches (six on third downs)
- Two drops
Higgins:
- 45 targets (three in the end zone)
- 29 catches (nine on third downs)
- Zero drops
Why am I not hesitating to go back to Higgins this week in the least? In Weeks 1-8, Higgins was targeted on 37.3% of his routes when Joe Burrow wasn’t pressured, a rate that far exceeded Chase’s 22.3% rate. When you fold in blitz rate to pressure rate, the Raiders, despite having the monster that is Maxx Crosby, are as poor a defense as there is in the league.
I like the Bengals in this game. In their past four wins, Higgins has averaged 8.3 targets and 16.8 PPR points per game. I like his chances of getting there in this spot, and that’s why he has the potential to flirt with WR1 status as he trends toward kickoff.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (at NYG)
Terry McLaurin’s third 100-yard game of the season resulted in his sixth straight top-30 finish, making him the cream of the crop when it comes to reliable options in the WR2-3 range.
We haven’t seen the eye-popping numbers that we envisioned once he was finally playing alongside an NFL-level quarterback, but McLaurin is a lineup lock week in and week out, without much question as long as Jayden Daniels is under center.
The Giants have been reasonably stingy against receivers this season, but that’s more the result of them being more inept at other spots on the field. Four of the five highest WR games against New York have come from the alpha target earner in the offense (it would be 4 of 4 if not for Calvin Austin’s punt return touchdown last week vaulting him into this conversation).
There’s no denying that is what McLaurin is in Washington (145 more receiving yards than the next two most productive Commanders receivers combined).
Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. LAR)
Note: An oblique injury limited Lockett on Wednesday, but he was a full-go on Thursday and appears set to fill his normal role.
Forget actual production, Lockett hasn’t had a role that saw him earn more than 10 projected points in a game this season. Even with DK Metcalf ailing, the veteran receiver didn’t earn five targets a single time in the month of October and seems to have little gas left in the tank in an offense that is likely to rebrand itself around Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba down the stretch.
Lockett’s name carries nostalgia with it, I get it. I promise you that I like him as much as you do, but this profile doesn’t need to be on fantasy rosters (two finishes this season better than WR40), especially against a defense that held him to 61 yards on 11 targets across two games last season.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (at BUF)
Tyreek Hill didn’t exactly rediscover his 2,000-yard-pace dreams with Tua Tagovailoa back, but it was good to see him get loose for his first 25-yard catch since Week 1. Hill was targeted on the second and third passes of Week 8, picking up 21 yards in the process.
The vintage Hill performances feel inevitable as long as QB1 is on the field, which means you’re starting him weekly. I worry some that the majority of his targets this season (56.9%) have come on the perimeter, as that is the teeth of the Bills’ defense, but that’s not enough concern to slip him any further than WR9 in my weekly rankings.
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. WAS)
If there is ever a time to play Wan’Dale Robinson, this might be it. The Commanders are likely to script the Giants out of any balance, thus making dump-off passes a version of the run game, which feeds right into Robinson’s profile.
How many air yards do you think Robinson has accumulated on his 14 targets over the past two weeks?
Fewer.
Those 14 looks have come with just 14.9 air yards, making Robinson’s targets little more than long handoffs. That’s not the most appealing skill set in the world, which is why he’s started in fewer leagues each week.
Robinson’s catches are unlikely to show up on NFL RedZone or post-game highlight packages, but with the Commanders allowing the third-most yards per short pass to receivers this season (6.8), I’m happy to take a double-digit PPR day (at least five catches in five straight games and three games north of 10 targets this season) and be on my way.
Robinson is my WR27 this week, ranked over the emerging Keon Coleman and flashier names like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins.
Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. NO)
With Diontae Johnson out of the picture, Xavier Legette will have the chance to develop in an expedited manner, and that’s gold for his dynasty managers. In terms of Week 9 or the remainder of 2024, I’m having a hard time getting there.
Yes, Legette has scored in three of five games, but he’s averaging just 1.15 yards per route this year, a level of inefficiency that I find more predictive than the recent scoring binge. Regardless of who is under center, do we think Carolina will frequently be in the red zone?
I don’t, and if the touchdowns dry up, what does Legette bring to the table? His current 17-game pace for this season is 47 catches for 449 yards, which means he’s essentially pacing — for an entire season — for a stat line similar to what Darnell Mooney has already put on the board; and I don’t feel good about Mooney on a weekly basis.
There might be something to Legette long-term, but we’re going to have to wait to plug him into lineups and find out.
Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. TB)
Your optimism about Xavier Worthy should be directly tied to what you think DeAndre Hopkins has to offer — and that terrifies me. The rookie has begun to see his role take shape of late, and if not for the acquisition of the veteran playmaker, would have me moving heaven and earth to acquire him.
Worthy has five red-zone touches over his previous three games and has been targeted on over 25% of his routes in consecutive weeks, not bad for a player who hadn’t crossed 18.2% beforehand. Mahomes continues to operate a pretty conservative offensive attack, but he’s beginning to let his metaphorical hair down recently when looking the way of the fastest sprinter in the NFL.
- Weeks 1-4: 26.7% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield
- Weeks 5-8: 36.4% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield
So, what’s it going to be? Was Hopkins brought in for his route-running savvy and as a pseudo-Rashee Rice replacement, or was he brought in to further stretch the field and give space for this running game/Travis Kelce to help matriculate the ball down the field?
I lean toward the latter, which has me out on Worthy. However, I will admit that I’m not operating with the utmost confidence in that evaluation because trying to get inside the head of Andy Reid is impossible.
I’m not starting Worthy until I have a better feel for this situation. I will tell you (as long as you pinky promise to not tell my league mates) that I’m going to be watching Hopkins’ usage like a hawk. Not his production, his usage. If he’s lining up in the slot and running six-yard crossing routes on 3rd-and-5, I’m sending an offer to the Worthy owner as fast as possible.
Zay Flowers | BAL (vs. DEN)
Over his past six games, Zay Flowers (recently playing through an ankle issue) has three with over 110 receiving yards, yet three others with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end-zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Nevertheless, adding Diontae Johnson to the mix makes this an increasingly difficult profile to evaluate. Flowers’ fantasy stock, to no surprise, has been directly tied to target share. And regardless of what you think Johnson brings to this offense, you have to dial back Flowers’ role in some capacity.
- 20.5 PPG when targeted on over 25% of his routes this season
- 5.6 PPG when not targeted on over 25% of his routes this season
I’ll grant you that it is entirely possible that the attention that a proven talent like Johnson demands could result in enough of an uptick in the quality of targets to offset the decline in quantity. However, we’ll have to wait and see on that.
In Week 9, Flowers remains a WR2 after this deal, as I find it unlikely that his newest teammate is on the field for the majority of snaps.