With many throwing the idea of an NFL Draft Lottery around, analysts far and wide have responded with their input. It is widely believed that a lottery will not be implemented, at least not anytime soon. This is primarily because it could encourage teams to tank.
One Analyst Sees Lottery as Unnecessary Change in Foreseeable Future
In a Sports Illustrated article, digital specialist Matthew Lownes was asked if there could be a push for a draft lottery within the next decade. Lownes does not see an “appetite” for it, nor does he think it would be beneficial for middle-of-the-pack clubs.
“The other argument that the league would make is that tanking hasn’t been that big of an issue for them, though I’d argue that could be changing, with analytics departments more involved in strategy, and putting real value on wins vs. picks. The Patriots, for example, won their Week 18 game last year, dropping them from first to fourth in the draft order. Had they lost, they’d have had the Giants and Titans bidding to move up to the top pick, and they would’ve ended up with a haul for the selection and perhaps Travis Hunter to boot.”
NFL Media Personality Pleads Case for Draft Lottery
Dov Kleiman disagrees with Lownes and argues several points on why a draft lottery could be positive for the NFL.
Should the NFL implement a draft lottery? 🧐
Many fans want this change to happen…pic.twitter.com/09srL71Ctu
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman)
“Football needs a draft lottery, it would be great for the league, it would be great for the fans, literally everyone would watch it,” said Kleiman. “Imagine 18 teams that missed the playoffs and all of the fans gathered around televisions waiting for the ping pong balls to do their thing, the envelopes to be opened, and Arch Manning is playing the role of Cooper Flagg.”
Kleiman continues by saying while the ratings would skyrocket, that is not the only reason for it.
“The thing about the lottery is it’s a good idea, tanking is a scourge, it is the worst thing in sports, losing should never be incentivized,” said Kleiman. “The NFL has always strived for parity, it’s a great idea, it has served them well.”
Kleiman continues, “But the trouble is, as their season has gotten longer, the bottom is starting to fall out of that a little. Last year, 10 teams won less than 30% of their games. That was the most ever. Six of those teams won less than 25%, that’s the most since 1926.”
Kleiman argues that as the season gets longer, teams’ motivation to win declines.
“Teams are throwing in the towel, that’s exacerbated by the 17th game, soon there’s going to be an 18th, and I’m all for that,” said Kleiman. “But this problem will only get worse.”
The TV personality uses Cleveland and Baltimore’s Week 18 matchup with a 20.5-point spread that was covered as further evidence that the end of the season is lackluster at best.
While many fear the concept of tanking with the draft lottery, is it something that already exists in the current NFL?