Who Should I Draft First in Fantasy Football Drafts? Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson Battle For Top Spot

Fantasy football leagues are rarely won or lost at the very beginning, but rostering the right star certainly doesn’t hurt.

Over the past five seasons, we’ve seen the top of the PPR leaderboard peppered with receivers and running backs alike, a trend that would have seemed crazy not long ago.

So who should be the top pick this summer? There are four primary candidates in leagues with standard rosters (for the record, your top-ranked QB should always go 1.01 in a Superflex setting), each with a unique and tempting case.

Which Players Should You Consider Picking No. 1 Overall?

WHO SHOULD BE WHICH PICK?: 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

After posting a dominant regular season (career highs in rushing yards, yards per carry, and total touchdowns), Christian McCaffrey saw his carry count and receiving yardage increase with each playoff game, and he scored five touchdowns in three contests.

There may be a running back out there who will push CMC for the league lead in touches (Bijan Robinson?) or touchdowns (the betting markets like Derrick Henry), but his equity in both categories speaks to a rare floor/ceiling combination.

McCaffrey has missed just one game over the past two seasons, dispelling the injury-prone myth after he sat 23 times in the two seasons prior — the one true flaw that we’ve seen from him during his seven NFL seasons. His August calf injury isn’t ideal, but he has nothing to prove during the summer, and all reports have expressed optimism surrounding his Week 1 availability.

“Availability” is the reason most people fade the RB position in the first round. But with that concern not coming into the picture in consecutive seasons, McCaffrey’s case is as strong as any receiver for being the first player selected in redraft leagues this summer.

Let’s call McCaffrey what he is — the perfect fantasy mix of a receiver and a running back. He’s caught 80.4% of his targets since joining the Niners while also handling the valuable carries inside the scoring area (league-high 63 red-zone carries in 2023).

That provides stable base production, and if I need to sell you on CMC’s per-touch upside, you haven’t been paying attention. He had a 50+ yard run or a 25+ yard catch in seven games last year.

I’m penciling in some regression for Brock Purdy this season, which will impact the pass catchers in the 49ers’ offense. But McCaffrey’s route tree should free him from much of that back-tracking.

McCaffrey’s versatility makes him the most matchup-proof player in our game. Even if you’re not of that belief, the fact that his tougher contests come early in the season (New York Jets and New England Patriots in September) frees him up for end-of-season fireworks.

The 49ers own an elite defense, which means the offense isn’t always pressed to put up big numbers. That, however, is not something I expect to be the case in the fantasy Super Bowl.

The standard ESPN fantasy league ends with a two-week title matchup in Weeks 16 and 17, where San Francisco plays:

• at Miami Dolphins
• vs. Detroit Lions

Both of those offenses were top-five in yardage and points a season ago, making them as likely as any team in the league to push McCaffrey and Co.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

“To me, it’s what he can handle,” Option A said. “You try not to do too much to overload one player … it’s the little things that you guys don’t see.”

“Seeing him play in person, up close, I was like, ‘This guy is unbelievable,’” Option B said. “There’s nothing he can’t do. I’ve got goosebumps thinking about it.”

Option A feels like someone who is losing confidence in the dating scene altogether and is just happy to have been set up with a partner who successfully located the restaurant.
Option B, to me, sounds like marriage material. Not only is a second date on the books, but an extended vacation is on the table, and meeting the family isn’t out of the question.

Option A was Arthur Smith talking about Bijan Robinson around Thanksgiving last season, and Option B was Zac Robinson after a few training sessions with his star tailback.

Robinson managed to put up viable numbers as a rookie despite less-than-optimal usage. He was a fantasy asset with just two carries inside of the 5-yard line, instead having to rely on his elite athleticism to net splash plays (20+ yard gain in nine different games last season).

The Michael Penix Jr. draft pick was laughed at, but for Robinson, I think it’s a positive. It tells me that the Falcons are going to stop at nothing to upgrade his offensive environment and are admitting that what they ran out there last season around him was unacceptable.

Could Robinson be peak Dalvin Cook, a star running back who thrived with Kirk Cousins under center? From the start of the 2019 season through the end of the 2020 season…

Cook’s per-17-game production

• 2,169 total yards
• 18 TDs

Our projections aren’t far off of that. With a finishing kick of the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, and Carolina Panthers, Robinson might not only be the reason you’re in your fantasy Super Bowl, but he could be most productive when all the chips are in the middle of the table.

There’s no such thing as drafting Robinson too early in 2024, and I expect that to be the case for the next handful of seasons.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

The only difficulty with CeeDee Lamb’s massive 2023 season is determining which outstanding statistic you want to deem as the most impressive:

• Nine straight games with a touchdown
• Eight games with a 76% catch rate
• Seven games with 10+ receptions
• Four games with 150+ yards

Growth isn’t always linear, but Lamb’s has been. His talent and role have been increasing at a steady rate, something that makes him as viable at the top of drafts this season as anyone.

Per-game statistics

• 2020: 4.6 catches for 58.4 yards (0.3 touchdowns)
• 2021: 4.9 catches for 68.9 yards (0.4 touchdowns)
• 2022: 6.3 catches for 79.9 yards (0.5 touchdowns)
• 2023: 7.9 catches for 102.9 yards (0.7 touchdowns)

Now, I have my concerns about that annual improvement taking place in 2024 simply because building on a 135-1,749-12 season is a tall task. That said, nothing about Lamb’s 2023 campaign looks fluky.

When I look at these star receivers, the ability to be consistent is among the skills I value the most.

Tyreek Hill is elite, but without a splash play, there is a weekly floor to consider (16.4 PPG last season in games without a 35+ yard TD).

Justin Jefferson’s first four seasons have been historic, but his target quality is now a concern.

Ja’Marr Chase is relying on a quarterback who is recovering from injury.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is featured but is part of a gifted offense that can produce in a variety of ways.

Lamb has none of those concerns. He’s comfortable in Dallas’ system and his role. He’s also comfortable with his quarterback and, most importantly, with destroying defenses by whatever means necessary.

The big plays are no secret (10 games with a 25+ yard reception), but that’s not why Lamb is atop my WR rankings and in the 1.01 discussion, depending on your format.

In 2023, Lamb was the NFL leader in third-down receptions (36) and red-zone catches (17), while leading all receivers in fourth-quarter grabs (30).

Simply put, Lamb is game script-proof and can win at every level in any matchup as the focal point of the offense that led the league in scoring last season.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Peyton Manning in 2000 was the QB to lead the NFL in passing yards at a younger age than Tua Tagovailoa and return to the same team the following season. Marvin Harrison was Manning’s go-to receiver that year, and that was the second season of a four-year peak that saw the Hall of Famer clear 100 catches, 1,400 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in every year.

Tyreek Hill really is unguardable 😲pic.twitter.com/mvzpTbXFaS

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) June 26, 2024

Could we be in the midst of that sort of run from Hill? He and Harrison go about their business in very different ways, but the ability to develop a connection early in the career of a pocket passer can return serious fruit for a special receiver — and Hill certainly qualifies as such.

No, I’m not calling Tagovailoa a left-handed Manning, but I’m also not ready to say the rules of the early 2000s are anything like what defenses have to deal with these days — something that points me in Hill’s direction.

Jaylen Waddle enters this season ahead of where rookie Reggie Wayne was in 2001 to keep with this thread, so maybe expecting growth upon Hill’s cartoon numbers from 2023 doesn’t happen. Still, a repeat performance would return a profit on taking him with a top-three overall pick in PPR formats.

For those in the back, I hear you. “What about the weather stuff with Tagovailoa?”

It’s a reasonable concern. Hill had three straight games in December without a 100-yard game or a touchdown, a decline in production that can sink a fantasy team in position to challenge for a title because of his 20+ point performances.

On the bright side, from Weeks 10-16, the Dolphins have one game that can be impacted by freezing temperatures. They travel to Lambeau on Thanksgiving (for the record, Green Bay hasn’t had a Thanksgiving night under 30 degrees in five straight years). Outside of that, there are four home and two weatherproof games.

There are two hurdles in terms of matchup to end the fantasy season (Weeks 16-17 vs. SF and at CLE), which takes Hill out of the 1.01 discussion for me. There’s the potential for him to struggle late, and that hurts — though I’ll admit that is a thin argument to make

The New England Patriots and New York Jets posted two of the better pass defenses a year ago, right? Hill played three games against them, scored in each contest, and averaged 7.3 receptions.

At the end of the day, Hill is a Tier 1 receiver without much discussion. Last season, one that he underachieved based on his self-made goals, he became the first player in the history of this great game to post five games of 150+ receiving yards and a TD reception in a single season.

I’m not sure if Hill can beat Noah Lyles in a race, but I am confident that he can punish NFL defenses over and over again.

Who Should Go No. 1?

For me, it’s McCaffrey. I have him, Robinson, and Lamb labeled as my top tier of Flex players, and I don’t think any of them would be a bad pick. But when combining positional scarcity with upside and floor, San Francisco’s All-Pro stands behind no one.

For my money, there aren’t 15 running backs I feel absolutely confident in entering 2024, but there are roughly 30 receivers that check that box.

Lamb stands to outproduce the field by a wide margin, but when I’m picking in the middle of my draft, I’m much more confident that I can get viable production from the receivers that are available over the committee situations we are forced to pick from at running back in those rounds.

KEEP READING: Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Rankings

Could Zay Flowers break out? Maybe Tee Higgins’ contract situation propels him to his best season yet. Those are two of the receivers you’ll have access to in the fifth round, while those searching for RBs will be forced into an uncomfortable age situation (Aaron Jones/James Conner) or be forced to reach for a player on a well-below-average offense (Zamir White/Rhamondre Stevenson).

On paper, Lamb is every bit as worthy as McCaffrey. But from a roster construction point of view, it’s running back or bust for me at the top spot.

Robinson’s case is interesting, but the stability that San Francisco offers over that of Atlanta (sorry, but I’m not willing to admit that a veteran quarterback coming off of a torn Achilles is a bulletproof plan — and Atlanta might not be either given the drafting of Penix) is too much to ignore.