In his first season as quarterback Kyler Murray’s No. 1 target, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins started his Arizona Cardinals career with three consecutive WR1 finishes in fantasy football. That hot streak ended in Week 4 as Hopkins and the Cardinals passing game as a whole failed to move the ball against the Carolina Panthers. What can Week 4 tell us about DeAndre Hopkins’ Week 5 fantasy value?
In this article, we’ll look at what went wrong in Week 4, while also using Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Consistency Score and Expected Fantasy Points to see what we can expect from the wide receiver in Week 5 and beyond.
What changed for DeAndre Hopkins’ fantasy production in Week 4?
After Houston’s ill-advised trade of Hopkins to Arizona, the former Clemson wide receiver began his Cardinals fantasy football career with three-straight 20+ games in PPR formats. Even with Hopkins entering the Week 4 contest with an ankle injury, not many expected the Arizona passing attack to bottom out against the vulnerable Panthers passing defense.
The Panthers held Hopkins to just 41 receiving yards and 11.1 PPR fantasy points, by far the lowest of his Cardinals career. While those numbers look subpar for Hopkins initially, you have to consider that Arizona only managed 133 passing yards in total. Even in a down week, Hopkins still dominated his fellow Cardinals wide receivers with over 30% of their total receiving yards.
Due to Arizona’s passing-game struggles, Hopkins saw a dramatic decrease in fantasy football production and receiving statistics. In his first three games, Hopkins averaged 10.99 yards-per-route and 9.47 yards-per-target, but both of those numbers dropped to 5.86 and 4.56 in Week 4’s loss to Carolina.
DeAndre Hopkins dominates Pro Football Network Fantasy Analytics
Despite Week 4’s lack of production weighing down his grades, Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins continues to shine in Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Analytics.
A metric created by Pro Football Network fantasy analyst Phillip Caldwell, Consistency Score doesn’t look at overall points scored, but instead looks at how consistent each player is throughout the season. More consistent fantasy producers are better season-long investments than inconsistent boom/bust prospects since they produce more “starter quality” weeks.
Hopkins is the current WR2 with a 6.24 Consistency Score, behind only fellow All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints. After finishing as the WR6 in Caldwell’s Consistency Score in 2019, Hopkins continues to be one of the safest wide receivers to start on an every-week basis.
Expected Fantasy Points
If Hopkins’ Consistency Score isn’t enough to calm your inner panic about his Week 4 dud, one glance at the wide receiver’s expected fantasy points (xFP) should do the trick. Four games into the 2020 NFL season, Hopkins’s 80.0 xFP is the third-highest at the wide receiver position.
While Hopkins Fantasy Points Differential of WR41 overall isn’t ideal, the wide receiver has still managed to score 84.6 fantasy points on the season. That 6% increase is nowhere near the top of the table, but it’s sufficient for someone who is getting so many opportunities. In fact, among the top-five wide receivers in expected fantasy points, only Hopkins and Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley have exceeded their xFP totals this season.
DeAndre Hopkins’ Week 5 and rest of season fantasy outlook
Now that we have a further understanding of the wide receiver’s Consistency Score and Expected Fantasy Points, where does that leave us with Hopkins moving forward? For one, don’t overreact with DeAndre Hopkins’ Week 5 projections. Don’t let one game of subpar fantasy football production mask the three previous matchup-winning weeks of Hopkins Cardinals’ career. Sometimes, the best reaction is no reaction at all.
Barring an unfortunate injury or a couple of repeat performances of this nature, Hopkins should be one of the first players locked-into your fantasy football lineups. Bad games and crippling performances are part of every player’s journey, so if you drafted Hopkins in the early rounds of 2020 fantasy drafts, the absolute last thing you need to do is panic. Just sit back and enjoy the ride knowing that Hopkins will likely help you win more often than not.
Want more fantasy football analysis and news?
Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.