Week 6 sees us entering with an overall record of +10.56 units and an 11.5% return on investment when it comes to the NFL prop bet market. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets to help win you some cash. This article will break down various angles through all of Sunday and Monday’s games, as we continuously update our selections as more lines become available.
Week 6 starts in a non-traditional way with a nine-game early Sunday slate. The week ends with a doubleheader on Monday as the Kansas City Chiefs clash with the Buffalo Bills before the Dallas Cowboys look to hold off the Arizona Cardinals with Andy Dalton at the helm. Let’s dive into some of our favorite prop bets for Week 6!
Week 6 Early Sunday Prop Bets
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 PM
0.5u — Austin Hooper anytime touchdown @ +210
With Odell Beckham Jr. questionable to play Week 6 due to an undefined illness, taking advantage of a prop bet on Austin Hooper to step up seems like an ideal play. The Browns tight end is third on the team in red-zone targets this season, behind Beckham and Kareem Hunt.
Hooper is coming off a season in Atlanta where he caught six touchdowns and is now growing within the Browns offense. Hooper was targeted 17 times in the last two weeks, and those 8.5 targets per game could be eclipsed in Week 6 if Beckham is out, with Jarvis Landry also injured.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 PM
1u — David Montgomery over 59.5 rushing yards @ -110
I had success with the David Montgomery prop bets last week, and I am returning to the well in Week 6. This season has been challenging for Montgomery, especially the last three weeks, but this matchup with the Panthers should be a beacon of light for the young running back.
The Panthers allow 5.4 yards per carry (31st) and have allowed over 100 rushing yards in all five games this season. In Chicago, the options to carry the ball are limited since the loss of Tarik Cohen, and Montgomery has seen over 80% of the running back snaps in both of the last two weeks. After two tough games against good run defenses, look for Montgomery to break out for a big day in this one.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants | Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 PM
1u — Daniel Jones over 21.5 rushing yards @ -110
Last week was a come back to earth moment for Jones and his rushing success this season. However, last week’s matchup saw him take on a Cowboys defense, which is susceptible to being attacked in multiple different ways. Washington is a better team against the pass than the Cowboys, and they should be able to hassle Jones with their talented defensive line. Look for Jones to need to make plays in this game and pick yards up with his feet, similar to the way we saw Kyler Murray run for plenty of yards against this defense earlier in the year.
2u — Daniel Jones over 235.5 passing yards @ -114
How many times have Washington held a quarterback under this total? Once. And that was in a fairly heavy defeat to the Ravens where their opponent is a run-first offense who took their foot off the gas. Jones will also enter the game vs. Washington with confidence after a good performance at Dallas last week.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 PM
1u — Jimmy Graham over 27.5 receiving yards @ -110
This number feels on the low side to me, given that Graham has seen 20 targets in the past three weeks and topped this number in all three games. The Panthers have not been particularly victimized by tight ends this season, but both Hunter Henry and Darren Waller went over 40 yards against them. That demonstrates that good tight ends can have solid returns against the Panthers, and Graham is still a good receiving tight end.
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 PM
1u — James Robinson over 3.5 receptions @ +122
When scanning across the Week 6 prop bet options, this line immediately stood out to me. Firstly, Robinson has returned four or more receptions in each of his last three games, so the line itself looks low. When you also consider he has been targeted 17 times for those 15 receptions, the line seems even worse. Combine that with a +122 juice, and this one is too good to pass up for a unit.
1u — Kenny Golladay, 100+ yards & Detroit win @ +260
Golladay is starting his third game since returning from injury and who better to get back into the groove against than a Jaguars defense that’s at or near the bottom in passer rating allowed, yards per pass attempt allowed, passing yards, and touchdowns allowed. Golladay will knock some further rust off and produce a massive performance in a game that figures to be a shootout.
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Week 6 Sunday Afternoon Prop Bets
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins | Sunday, October 18th, 4:05 PM
1u — Mike Gesicki anytime touchdown @ +140
This is the perfect matchup for Gesicki. A team that has allowed 19 red-zone trips and 12 red-zone touchdowns to opponents against a player that leads his team in red-zone targets. Gesicki has seen 44% of the Dolphins red-zone targets and has pulled in two touchdowns. His numbers are not overly great with just three receptions, but he is a nice matchup against a Jets team that is not particularly set up to defend big-bodied tight ends.
1u — Myles Gaskin over 58.5 rushing yards @ -110
Gaskin has run into a pair of formidable run defenses in the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers over the last two weeks. This week is a different story as he faces a New York Jets team allowing over 125 rushing yards per game on average. They have allowed over 100 rushing yards in each of their last four matchups, and with Gaskin’s dominating the snaps and carries for the Dolphins, he should be able to have success as the Dolphins look to seal a third win in four weeks.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, October 18th, 4:25 PM
1u — Aaron Jones over 4.5 receptions @ +138
This is quite simply another Week 6 prop bet line that does not make sense to me. If you go back and watch last week’s game, you will see just how often David Montgomery was available in the passing game. He pulled in seven receptions as it was, but as the game wore on, the Buccaneers were seemingly leaving him unchecked on a number of plays.
If the Buccaneers give Jones the same kind of space they gave Montgomery, Rodgers will utilize him a lot. In Week 4, with no notable active receivers, Rodgers targeted Jones five times, as he reeled in all five for 40 yards. Davante Adams is back this week, but Jones is arguably still the second most talented pass catcher on this team, averaging 9.7 yards per reception in 2019. Look for Rodgers and the Packers to utilize Jones in the passing attack, especially as he is not expected to have much success against a very good Buccaneers run defense.
1u — Aaron Rodgers over 302.5 passing yards @ -110
This line seems a high prop bet to take on in Week 6, but I expect this game to be a shootout. The Buccaneers have not allowed an opponent to top 50 rushing yards in the last three weeks, and I do not expect Jones to have much success. Look for Rodgers to attack this Buccaneers team in a way that utilizes the passing game as a pseudo run game. If Nick Foles can post 243 yards against this Buccaneers defense, Rodgers can undoubtedly go over 300 yards with a better offensive line protecting him.
Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers | Sunday, October 18th, 8:20 PM
1u — Jared Goff over 274.5 passing yards @ -110
Week 5 saw the San Francisco 49ers give up 350 passing yards against journey-man Ryan Fitzpatrick in a good but not great Miami Dolphins offensive scheme. This week they get Jared Goff and an excellent Los Angeles Rams offensive scheme. Goff demonstrated last week that when the run game is not working, he can open it up, totaling 309 yards on 30 attempts. With the 49ers defense still one of the better ones in the league against the run game, the pressure will be on Goff to win a crucial NFC West clash for the Rams.