The Green Bay Packers will travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Packers -3.5, with a game total of 48. The Packers’ implied points are 25.8, and the Rams’ implied points are 22.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Jordan Love, QB
Love looked predictably rusty against an aggressive Vikings bunch in his return to action after missing just two games due to an MCL sprain, but his willingness to cut it loose late was encouraging.
As the Packers find their groove, Love saved your fantasy matchup with the best fourth quarter of his career (20.1 fantasy points, a number that Aaron Rodgers only topped twice during his time with the team). It required garbage time (garbage-adjacent, at the very least) for Love to reward your loyalty last week, something that I don’t think will be the case this week.
We know about the receiver talent in Green Bay, so the fact that Tucker Kraft’s production from last week could carry over (LAR: league-high 10.6 yards allowed per tight end target this season) lands Love safely inside my top 10 at the position.
We got glimpses of meaningful mobility from Love last season, and that’s what I’ll be watching in this game. I don’t have any questions about him as a passer, but if he is going to be a difference-maker this season, his ability to move around is critical.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Jacobs doesn’t have a top-20 finish this season despite a usage rate above what I expected. The ground game was scrapped out of Week 4’s loss to the Vikings, so it was good to see him earn six targets (four catches for 27 yards).
Fantasy managers don’t need him to be Alvin Kamara — they just need a few targets per game and a continued domination of the carry count. He’s been responsible for 85.7% of Packer running back red-zone touches through four weeks — that’s a role that is in your starting lineup without much thought every week, even if the efficiency leaves room to be desired.
Emanuel Wilson, RB
Wilson is a nice handcuff to own, but he’s a long shot to ever own projectable stand-alone value as long Jacobs is healthy. Wilson was handed the ball on the Packers’ third play last week and was on the field for 39.2% of the offensive snaps – positive trends but not nearly enough to burst into the Flex conversation.
Jayden Reed, WR
The Packers have a receiver room loaded with talent, but, at this point, it’s safe to say that everyone is fighting for the WR2 role next to Reed as opposed to a full WR committee situation. Through four weeks, he leads the position in production over expectation (+82.9%) and has too versatile a skill set to be taken away by any one defensive scheme.
Need proof? How about a 24-yard catch and a rush attempt in Love’s first drive back from a two-week absence? Managers were fortunate to get the touchdown last week against the Vikings (Green Bay likely punch in a six-inch touchdown with Josh Jacobs if not for a Matt LaFleur personal foul that moved the ball back to the 15-yard line and resulted in Reed’s score), but the connection with Love is nothing short of special.
From a nerdy standpoint, Green Bay’s willingness to pound Jacobs should thrill managers with Reed rostered. When Love is under center, Reed’s production in play-action situations looks like a typo:
- 20 targets
- 17 catches
- 231 yards
- three touchdowns
The Rams have the fifth-lowest defensive success rate against the run – don’t be surprised if we get an NFL RedZone cutaway on Sunday to see Reed (my WR12 this week) streaking down the field.
Christian Watson, WR
“The greatest ability is availability.”
Clichés are corny, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be accurate. Watson was active for 23 of 34 games through the first two seasons of his career, with a series of soft-tissue injuries resulting in the missed time.
We were told this summer that there was a muscle imbalance in his legs that was addressed and that we should be confident in the hamstring issues being a thing of the past — but now Watson is dealing with a high ankle sprain.
I’m not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, but continued lower body injuries for a player who relies on his physical tools feel like a problem.
We know that the Packers want Watson on the field and believe they have their franchise signal-caller under center, a thought process that should keep Watson on fantasy rosters as we await further information on this injury.
That said, his greatest contribution to our fantasy world this season may be sitting out, thus adding some clarity to the target hierarchy in Green Bay and allowing his talented teammates to get the chance to break out.
With or without Watson, Reed should be viewed as the alpha playmaker of the receiver group. Based on the usage from last week, managers should feel great about who is second in command for Week 5 at the very least.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
In Love’s return, Wicks racked up 215 air yards, the second most by a receiver this season and the most by a Packer not named Davante Adams over the past six years. He may have only hauled in five of 13 targets, but with Watson sidelined, he has clearly been identified as the field stretching option in this offense and that could result in another usable week from the 2023 fifth-rounder.
Big-play WRs vs. Rams in 2024:
- Week 1: Jameson Williams — 24.4 fantasy points (nine targets, 14.6 aDOT)
- Week 2: Marvin Harrison Jr. — 29 fantasy points (eight targets, 19.5 aDOT)
- Week 3: Jauan Jennings — 46.5 fantasy points (12 targets, 13.4 aDOT)
- Week 4: DJ Moore — 11.2 fantasy points (six targets, 14.7 aDOT)
Those stat lines are illuminating, and while Moore’s numbers drag down the averages, he did account for half of Chicago’s receiver targets — it just wasn’t a high-volume game. Wicks has the athletic skill set that could thrive in this matchup, and that is why I’m comfortable putting him on the Flex radar, even in an offense with no shortage of viable pieces.
I currently have him ranked over Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison, all of whom your first instinct would likely slot above him.
Romeo Doubs, WR
The third-year receiver has 15 targets across Love’s two starts this season and impressed with eight scores last year. Doubs was heavily involved in the first half of Week 4’s loss to the Vikings (29.2% target share with a near touchdown) but was a pretty clear fourth option in the second half as Green Bay attempted to storm all the way back.
With Watson dinged up, there’s one fewer mouth to feed and, thus, a clearer path to Doubs receiving opportunities in scoring position that we know he is capable of paying off. That said, reports have surfaced this week about Doubs being unhappy with his role on the team and skipping practices.
He will be inactive for Week 5. In light of the Packers’ decision to suspend him for conduct detrimental to the team, this is a situation that demands monitoring. Bo Melton is the stash to make ahead of Week 5 — not only will he be in for extended reps, but he could have a lasting role on this offense if Watson and Doubs aren’t active for the coming weeks.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Kraft has seen over 18% of the targets when he’s been on the field in three straight games, and with Love now under center, that level of involvement alone is enough to justify going in this direction.
The 2023 third-round pick has yet to post an aDOT over 3.5 yards in a game this season. While that caps his ceiling, those of us streaming the position are more worried about a reasonable floor than any sort of upside case.
The number of viable tight ends seems to decline by the week, and with two of them on bye, Kraft — Week 4’s top scorer at the position — is a top-12 option in this spot, one whom I’m playing over both of Baltimore’s options and the ever frustrating Kyle Pitts.