The Minnesota Vikings will host the New York Jets on Sunday, but not at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Instead, they’ll be playing overseas in London for the first NFL International Series game of the season.
The spread currently stands at Vikings -2.5, with a game total of 41. The Jets’ implied points are 19.3, and the Vikings’ implied points are 21.8.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Another week, another multi-touchdown effort from Darnold. The efficiency is great to see, but is his fantasy stock a little too tied to something that could prove to be fleeting?
Maybe you trust the Darnold/Kevin O’Connell tandem in a Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan sort of way, but if not, his standing as a viable weekly option is on thin ice. He’s not a stiff, but he’s far from the type of QB that will pile up the points with his legs — any signal-caller with that profile who has more fantasy points than completions this season is going to be flagged by my regression metrics.
That’s not to take anything away from what Darnold has done through September — he’s been amazing. That said, fantasy is a game of looking forward, not back (his pace for 47 passing TDs means nothing to me), and that has me lower than the industry on him.
Darnold isn’t in the QB1 conversation this week, and I have no problem in saying that I think the month we just saw from the former third-overall pick will be his best of the season.
If you’re with me, sell him to the highest bidder and build up your roster elsewhere — if not, then you’re hanging your hat on an outlier season and praying for similar efficacy in this matchup in Week 17 when the Packers come to Minnesota.
Aaron Jones, RB
The Vikings made no bones about it – they wanted Jones to show out against his former employer last week. He was on the field for 82.2% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps (previous season high: 61.1%) and turned 26 touches into 139 yards.
Jones is a 29-year-old back with over 1,600 touches on his NFL résumé – I remain concerned long-term. That said, he’s been a top-16 running back in three of four games (two top 10s) and should be considered a solid start in all formats, even against the seventh-best EPA defense in the league.
Ty Chandler, RB
The Vikings led for 58 of their 64 plays on Sunday against the Packers, creating a script that, in theory, would give Chandler a chance to produce
- Four touches
- 13 yards
Chandler has come in under 20 rushing yards in three of four games this season as the undefeated Vikings have proven more than happy to lean on Jones (41 carries and 50 touches over the past two weeks).
This offseason, I had dreams of Chandler working his way into a role that would allow him to garner Flex consideration by the time bye weeks came around. Heck, after Week 2 (10 carries for 82 yards in an upset win over the 49ers), I still believed that.
I no longer do. That doesn’t mean Chandler is an automatic cut, but you need to adjust your view of him — he’s now strictly a handcuff. There’s value in that role behind a 29-year-old Jones who missed six games last season, it’s just not one that requires our attention at the moment.
Justin Jefferson, WR
It feels like ages ago that we were concerned about Jefferson’s value due to the QB play in Minnesota. Jefferson is again averaging over 2.60 yards per route run and producing well above expectations on a per-target basis.
Plenty of things change across the NFL on an annual (and weekly, for that matter) basis, but Jefferson remains inevitable. His 14-yard touchdown against the Packers was defended to perfection, and it simply didn’t matter. This offense currently ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation, something that should calm any minor fears you may have about a fully healthy Jordan Addison now or down the road when T.J. Hockenson returns.
Jordan Addison, WR
How you view Addison’s profile tells you a lot about who you are as a fantasy manager. Are you an optimist or a realist?
My guess is that you read that and assumed that there was a “right” or “preferred” option to that question. That, because I’m the number-crunching type, I’d encourage you to take the realist approach.
Wrong.
Fantasy leagues can be won in a variety of ways. The most certain way to lose is to be unaware of who you are as a manager. If you skew on the optimistic side of things, a player like Addison is one you should target. In his return from the ankle injury, he caught a 29-yard touchdown against the Packers (average career touchdown reception length: 29.5 yards) and was handed the ball on a jet sweep resulting in another score.
Players rarely sustain the type of scoring rate that Addison currently has (12 scores on 78 career touches), but maybe we are looking at a high-pedigree receiver who is destined to do special things. If that is what you believe, you can probably acquire his services cheaper than you’d assume.
Jordan Addison is back. The rest of the NFC North can run, but they can’t hide 😈 pic.twitter.com/emppG3ruBW
— Dmoney (JJ To JJ 4-0) (@HarryFordIsHim) October 2, 2024
If you’re like me and believe that regression to the mean is close to inevitable, you’re using his Week 4 stat line as an excuse to move on. No Jaire Alexander for Green Bay last week resulted in some odd coverage responsibilities, and that allowed Addison to thrive — but I do think his value is more likely to decline moving forward than grow.
The target ceiling is only so high. What if Darnold regresses? What if Jalen Nailor has earned himself more run? What if Hockenson returns in a month and walks into a six-to-eight-target role?
This is a tough matchup against a slow-moving team — Addison isn’t a top-40 receiver for me this weekend, and that could lower his value in the trade market if you elect to wait to test the waters.
Jalen Nailor, WR
After scoring in three straight games to open the season, Nailor saw his snap share plummet to just 21.9% against the Packers. He was able to make a big play (31 yards) on 3rd-and-long, the type of play that will keep him on the field when this team goes to three-receiver sets, but outside of that, there just isn’t room in this offense for a third pass catcher.
Read that last sentence again — that’s why I worry about Addison when Hockenson returns. It was a nice run for Nailor, and congratulations to you if you capitalized, but with Addison proving his health on Sunday, you can safely move on.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
The Pro Bowl tight end is progressing nicely in his rehab and is nearing his activation from the PUP list, something that would open up the window for him to be back in our lives as TE-needy fantasy managers.
The best working guess for Hockenson to make his season debut is Week 8 (Thursday night at Rams) or Week 9 (vs. Colts). It’s not too early to scoop him off of your waiver wire if you play in a league without an IR slot and shallow benches — with Darnold playing at an MVP level, there is room for Hockenson to return top-five value at the position, especially with potentially soft spots for the first month of his season (Weeks 8-11: LAR, IND, JAX, and TEN).
