Earlier this week, Pro Football Network’s expert handicapper released his early Week 4 NFL picks. When the lines first came out, Chris Smith decided that he couldn’t wait to get those plays in. After a few more days of research, he is back with another set of selections. The season has been incredibly profitable so far, with the PFN betting team raking in more than $500 of profit for our All-Access pass customers ($25 unit size). Chris has been a big part of that profit, with a year-to-date record of 10-5 for over $100 of profit! All of his plays are documented on a weekly basis in the Sheep Report for transparency purposes.

Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.

NFL Picks Tommy Teaser (+7 points)

Chiefs PK, Washington +10 and Browns +14 (+120) risk $25 to win $30

The Kansas City Chiefs have lost just four regular-season games since the start of the Patrick Mahomes era. They fell to both of last season’s Super Bowl participants by three points each, lost on a last-second two-point conversion to their AFC West rival Chargers, and dropped a seven-point decision to the Seahawks in Seattle. The Lions have jumped out to a great start this season, but I don’t think they are in the same echelon as the budding Kansas City juggernaut. Detroit is 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Essentially, their home turf is a non-factor against a Kansas City offense built on speed. Besides, at this point, I may tease the Chiefs down from 6 or 7 points every week until it fails me. 

For the second leg of our three-team teaser, we head to the Meadowlands where the Giants have finally found the heir apparent to Eli Manning in Danny Dimes. Or is it Danny Darts? Danny Drip? Regardless, the Giants without Saquon Barkley as a three-point favorite against anyone is a tad sketchy. Teasing a divisional foe up to +10 points is too much to pass up in this case. The 0-3 Washington franchise hasn’t looked particularly great after getting off to a fast start against the Eagles in Week 1. Traditionally, however, Washington has bounced back in this sort of spot, covering the spread in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. We only need them to stay within single digits against a Giants team primed for a letdown. 
Finally, Freddie Kitchens has spent all week hearing how awful he is as a head coach. Baker Mayfield knows talk radio thinks he’s crumbling behind a terrible offensive line. I took the Ravens to win the AFC North in my initial preseason futures article, partially as a Cleveland fade. I obviously feel pretty good about that bet now that Pittsburgh has lost Big Ben, and the Browns have proven to still be the Browns. Baltimore giving seven points in this spot seems on the high side to me though, and when I can double that to Cleveland plus two touchdowns, it seems like a layup. I’ll take the Browns +14 as the third leg of my NFL picks plus money teaser. 

NFL Picks Patty Parlay

Broncos -3 & Vikings +3 (+215) risk $20 to win $43

Can Kirk Cousins avoid back-breaking turnovers? This will be the storyline of the Vikings entire season in my estimation. For the sake of Week 4 in Chicago, getting three points means I might be able to survive this parlay. Even if Cousins ruins a potential Minnesota victory with the obligatory end-zone interception on the final drive. Not to mention in a game like this with two great defensive units, the Vikings might just need Mitch Trubisky to turn the ball over more than Cousins. Admittedly, Minnesota is a brutal 3-13 against the spread their last 16 trips to the Windy City, so the trends are against me here. Sometimes you have to trust your gut though, and I really like the Vikings in this spot as a live dog. 

The second leg of this week’s parlay features two more excellent defenses going head to head in the afternoon timeslot. The Jacksonville Jaguars are riding the Gardner Minshew express after last Thursday’s big divisional win over the Titans, while the Broncos are 0-3 and in desperation mode. The game is in Denver and Jalen Ramsey will not make the trip for the Jags. Jacksonville is 0-4 against the spread in their previous four games following a straight-up victory. After a disappointing opening night in Oakland, the Broncos have actually held their own against the NFC North the past two weekends, only to fall short in the final minute of both contests. In Week 4, I think the pendulum finally swings in their favor. 

Survivor Play 

Week 1 – Seattle Seahawks ✅

Week 2 – New England Patriots ✅

Week 3 – Dallas Cowboys ✅

Week 4 – San Diego Chargers 

Running List of PFN Bets for This Week 

Click to view the running list of our bets for this week and the 2019 NFL Season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.