Sunday of NFL Week 3 is nearly upon us, and our NFL betting experts have got you covered for all 15 of the remaining games this week. Underdogs have been having fun through two weeks, having gone 10-5-1 against the spread last week, but can that continue? Let’s see what our experts believe could happen this week with their NFL picks and predictions.
The focus of this article will be on game outcomes, the spread, and totals. If you are looking for prop bets, be sure to check out our dedicated Week 3 NFL props article. All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 21.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Broncos +220, Buccaneers -270
- Total: 41
Brian Blewis: The Buccaneers are coming off a huge win in Detroit last week, and their stock couldn’t be higher after they were met with “fluke” allegations going into this season.
However, Tampa Bay was pretty fortunate to win that game, as the Lions had more than twice as many yards of offense — they just happened to go 1 of 7 in the red zone.
Now seems to be the perfect time to sell high on the Buccaneers, as the oddsmakers have overadjusted their value after a 2-0 start following last season’s playoff run.
It might be hard to back Bo Nix, but this is a lot of points against a Buccaneers defense with several injuries.
Pick: Broncos +6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +235, Browns -290
- Total: 38
When two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in net EPA meet, I usually look to avoid any kind of play. Both teams are bad, and on a neutral field, I would put this as a field-goal advantage to the Browns, so seven points is in the right region in Cleveland.
There is no chance I am laying seven points with Deshaun Watson until I see more than we have seen through two weeks. The total is tempting in terms of the under, but this game could fumble its way to 21-20 and see the over hit. Just stay away from this game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Chargers +102, Steelers -122
- Total: 36
David Bearman: I’ll start by saying I am not convinced the Chargers are any good or if Jim Harbaugh is going to make something out of that team in LA. But they are getting the job done and are better than the Steelers.
Neither team has been pretty the first two weeks, but they’ve both gotten it done. Both have played great defense and done just enough on offense to win.
The difference to me is at quarterback, where the wheels will eventually fall off for Justin Fields, a player Harbaugh has seen a few times from his Michigan days.
Justin Herbert, while not having his best season, is taking care of the football and following Harbaugh’s game plan to a tee. Chargers win outright, but the schedule will get tougher vs. KC in Week 4, where we will really find out if they are for real.
Pick: Chargers ML (+102) — if Herbert is active
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3)
- Moneyline: Eagles +124, Saints -148
- Total: 49.5
Kyle Soppe: Stepping in front of the Saints feels like bankroll suicide right now (91 points scored). And while you could argue that Derek Carr’s based trends are a bit dated, there is some regression to expect given the historic pace he has set up to this point.
The Saints have been DOMINANT through two games. 💪
Are they contenders or pretenders? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/b6NO7NT6Yn
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 19, 2024
Maybe the new offensive system is bulletproof — I’m willing to bet against it. We all expect the Eagles to make the playoffs and, for his career, when Carr faces a future playoff team and the spread is less than six points, he is 10-28 against the spread (26.3%).
That means trusting early-season Jalen Hurts (13-6-2 ATS before Nov. 1 for his career) with my money, and that doesn’t bother me in the least.
Pick: Eagles +2.5
Houston Texans (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: Texans -135, Vikings +114
- Total: 46
Soppe: Since 2019, when a home team is catching points in September, under tickets come through 63.7% of the time — a trend I like to continue in this spot.
The Vikings are banged up across the board on the offensive side of the ball. While their most valuable assets are likely to suit up, asking them to clear 20 points against this defense is a stretch.
Pressure Rate When Blitzing, Texans
- Weeks 1-12, 2023: 42.9% (17th)
- Since: 53.4% (2nd)
Sam Darnold has been solid this season, but with a banged-up cast of characters and the temperature being turned up, the clock could strike midnight.
Minnesota is an aggressive defense, but they’ve struggled to get home when bringing the heat (fourth-lowest pressure rate when blitzing since the beginning of last season). C.J. Stroud, for his career, has been near perfect in those spots (140.3 rating), and if he takes Houston to an early lead, they are likely to draw out possessions down the stretch with their above-average rush rate over expectation with him under center.
Pick: Vikings under 22 points
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3)
- Moneyline: Packers +124, Titans -148
- Total: 38
Bearman: You have to give credit to the Packers’ roster and staff as they continue winning games no matter who is behind center. Going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love actually led to a playoff spot, and they won last week’s game with Malik Willis at QB, a guy not even mentioned in the top backup conversations.
The running game has been spectacular, averaging 212 yards per game, which takes a lot of pressure off the passing game.
Fully healthy, Green Bay is going to make waves in January. The Titans have been on the losing end of two 24-17 games and haven’t looked particularly good in either, not topping 300 yards of offense in either matchup. The defense has been pretty good, but also faced the Jets and Bears, not exactly juggernauts.
I think the Packers are the much better team here, and there’s a shot Love suits up. This line is a hedge against that, so hop on it while you can.
Pick: Packers +3 (-125)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
- Moneyline: Bears -108, Colts -112
- Total: 43.5
Bearman: I’ve looked at this game from many different angles. It’s do-or-die time for the Colts, a time to get the offense right for the Bears, had both teams favored at different points, and stayed away at times.
What I keep coming back to over and over again is that neither offense is right. Caleb Williams is getting a rude introduction to NFL defenses, completing only 56% of his passes with the same number of TDs as you and me.
Chicago has all the weapons they have, yet just one offensive TD through eight quarters.
On Indy’s side, it’s Jonathan Taylor or bust, as Anthony Richardson has completed less than 50% of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns. Someone is going to win this one, but it won’t be on offense.
Pick: Under 43.5
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-6)
- Moneyline: Panthers +215, Raiders -265
- Total: 40
Blewis: It’s hard to argue that Andy Dalton isn’t a huge upgrade over Bryce Young at the moment. Before Young was benched, this line was at Raiders -7, but has there been enough of an adjustment?
Since last season, the only four quarterbacks who have been worse than Young by EPA (expected points added) per dropback with at least 100 attempts are Tommy DeVito, Bailey Zappe, Trevor Siemian, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Yes, Young has been even worse than Zach Wilson.
What went wrong with Bryce Young's evaluation? 🤔 @IC_Draft suggests a combination of Young's lack of elite physical tools and mishandling by the Panthers. pic.twitter.com/sykXQXWQ0k
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 18, 2024
Last season, in the one week Dalton started when Young was injured, it was one of two Panthers games all season in which they had a positive EPA per play offensively. The other game was a major outlier performance for Young and Carolina against Green Bay.
While this could be a tough matchup for Dalton against this Raiders defense, I don’t think there’s been enough of an adjustment for the Panthers benching Young.
Pick: Panthers +6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +185, Seahawks -225
- Total: 41.5
Blewis: The Dolphins’ offense obviously takes a big hit now with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and he faces a daunting task this week in going against this Seahawks defense on the road.
But with 10 days to prepare, I trust Mike McDaniel to have a strong game plan for life without Tua Tagovailoa.
While this Seahawks defense has been a top-10 unit by yards allowed and EPA per drive, they’ve faced Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett so far. While Thompson isn’t any better than those two quarterbacks, those offenses lack the same weapons that Miami has.
On the other side, Miami’s defense has been a mediocre unit so far by most metrics, and they’re facing a red-hot Geno Smith. Under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks have been a top-10 passing offense by yards per game and EPA per dropback.
This is a rare over pick for me.
Pick: Over 41.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Ravens -115, Cowboys -105
- Total: 47.5
Soppe: In a matchup of two teams with preseason expectations that are currently licking their wounds, I favor the road team.
Dak Prescott-led teams are just 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in games with a spread fewer than three points, with the Cowboys failing to cover by at least 6.5 points in the majority of those ATS losses.
America’s QB could well be the reason this ticket cashes. His efficiency tanked last season when facing teams that went on to make the playoffs.
Pick: Ravens -1.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: 49ers -298, Rams +240
- Total: 43.5
Blewis: These are perhaps the two most injured teams at this point in the season, and they’ll be facing each other this week.
Sunday's game between the 49ers and Rams could be missing several key players:
– Christian McCaffrey
– Deebo Samuel
– George Kittle
– Charvarius Ward
– Cooper Kupp
– Puka Nacua
– Tyler Higbee
– John Johnson III
– Steve AvilaBoth teams hit with the injury bug early in 2024😬 pic.twitter.com/KBlSdsIxET
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 19, 2024
Both teams are especially depleted on offense, which has me liking the under in a matchup where we would typically see a lot of points between two explosive teams when healthy.
With injuries to Puka Nacua, their offensive line, and Cooper Kupp mid-game, the Rams only put up 245 yards of offense against a bottom-five Cardinals defense.
Although Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward have been battling injuries this week, I still think this 49ers defense is far better than Arizona’s, regardless of their availabilities.
Meanwhile, for the 49ers, we’ve seen how much less effective Brock Purdy is without all of his top weapons in the lineup. This week, he could be missing three of his four best playmakers, with only Brandon Aiyuk healthy.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: Lions -148, Cardinals +124
- Total: 51.5
Blewis: Although the Lions’ offense is only 16th in points scored, they’re averaging the second-most yards per game so far this season.
The issue? Red-zone offense.
Last week, they went just 1-7 in the red zone, and for the season, they’ve only scored touchdowns on 27.3% of their red-zone appearances, fifth-worst in the NFL.
That means positive regression is coming for the Lions’ offense, and this could be the week to bet on it happening.
As impressive as the Cardinals’ offense has looked so far this season, they still have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They had a strong performance against the Rams last week, but it was essentially Matthew Stafford and a bunch of backups.
Pick: Lions over 26.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
- Moneyline: Chiefs -162, Falcons +136
- Total: 46.5
Soppe: Over the course of two weeks, the Falcons have done most of their damage on two of their 19 drives.
- Week 1, 4th Drive: 9 plays, 90 yards, 7 points
- Week 2, 8th Drive: 6 plates, 70 yards, 7 points
In Atlanta’s other 17 drives, the Falcons have scored just one touchdown and averaged a tick over 25 yards per drive (for reference, the 2023 Panthers averaged 24.9 yards per drive). That’s a lack of consistency that isn’t going to get it done against a Chiefs team that is more likely now than ever to trust Patrick Mahomes with their fate.
Even if Atlanta moves the ball on one of their early drives, I’m not sure they can pay it off with a touchdown. Kansas City has had the sixth-best red-zone defense since the middle of last season.
Pick: Chiefs Halftime/Fulltime (-115 at DraftKings)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +190, Bills -230
- Total: 45.5
Soppe: The Bills rolled over one Florida team last week, and they get a chance to do it again as part of a two-game Monday night slate. Since 2021, unders are 75-39 (65.8%) when a team has at least 10 days of rest, a trend I’m buying to sustain.
Since the beginning of last season, these are two above-average red-zone defenses and below-average offenses in terms of turnover rate. Settling for field goals and/or ending promising drives with a giveaway is how unders cash, especially with a reasonable total.
Per our PFN Insight QB Grading system, Trevor Lawrence has yet to earn a grade better than a “C” this season, extending his streak to seven consecutive such games, something that leaves the door open for this ticket even if Josh Allen orchestrates a few scoring drives early.
Pick: Under 45.5 points
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +280, Bengals -355
- Total: 47
Blewis: This is going to be a rare spot where I back a heavy favorite.
The Commanders won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown against a Giants team that didn’t have a healthy kicker. Meanwhile, the Bengals lost a close game in Kansas City that they should have won, if not for bad turnover luck.
Best of all for the Bengals, they’re expected to get Tee Higgins back for this one, and Joe Burrow looked much better last week than he did in their season opener.
Burrow should also be able to capitalize on last week’s momentum against this Commanders’ defense, which has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL since last season, 132 more than the next closest team.
Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)