Week 12 was another profitable week for the column as we went 3-2. In fact, Week 12 was an absolutely fantastic week for our team, putting us up 24 units on the year and giving us a fantastic springboard with which to attack the stretch. Totals-wise we are still recovering from some tough losses in the middle of the season, but we have seen a number of profitable weeks and things are starting to clear a little the last couple of weeks. Let’s take a look at my picks for the Week 13 NFL totals.
Week 12 lessons
As always I shall start with the losses. The Green Bay Packers’ loss was ugly. I did not expect that level of embarrassment for a second time in California this season. Green Bay was humiliated and never got close to the team total. However, I think it says as much about the 49ers defense getting right than about concerns for the Packers to some extent. I will explain this one further later in the article.
Last Thursday was really ugly. We have seen some good Thursday Night Football clashes this season, but that was not one of them last week. The Indianapolis Colts had no urgency and only vaguely looked like threatening the 20-point mark. The way their offense performed against a mediocre Houston defense is a major concern for me going forward this season.
Let’s get into the positive now shall we and review our three wins? The New York Giants offense is dreadful. their defense is not much better frankly, but the lack of ability of the Chicago Bears offense meant the total in that game was never close to hitting. Bears games are under contenders every week. Giants games will depend on the opponents.
Ok, so last week I confused myself with the Panthers Saints games. I made the pick I wanted, over 46.5, but I did not explain it right. Essentially I missed a paragraph where I was going to say that despite everything this game has the potential to go bananas and the over is the way to go because both teams would be desperate to put struggles behind them. If you followed the actual pick you were fine, but apologies if I confused anyone.
The final win came in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals game. This one was never really in danger of going over. I felt comfortable about it all week, as I do most Pittsburgh games this season.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Week 13 totals and picks
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Bears defense features again this week. This one is simple. I frankly do not care whether it is Jeff Driskel or David Blough. I just do not see Detroit scoring two touchdowns and a field goal against a defense they have already labored against one this season. This should hopefully get Thanksgiving off to a strong start.
1u – Detroit Lions Under 16.5 Total Points | -110
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Is there a team that has turned it around more in the last few weeks than the New York Jets? Since an embarrassing loss to Miami, they have scored 34 points in three straight games. Now they face a Bengals defense who have actually been solid their last two games, allowing just 33 points in total. However, in seven games this season they have allowed 23 or more points and the new-look Jets offense should be able to get around the 25-point mark at least.
1u – New York Jets Over 22.5 Total Points | -125
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
I said we would talk about the Packers again and here we are. Last week was a national embarrassment for the Packers and they are not going to take that lying down. What better way to “get right” than with a game against the 2-9 New York Giants? The Packers’ struggles this season have come when teams have been effective in rushing the passer and putting pressure on their offensive line. Well, the New York Giants are not going to be doing that, as they rank 19th in the league in sacks this season.
26.5 is a lot of points, but against teams that struggle to get pressure consistently, we have seen the Packers put up 27+ on a regular occurrence. All of their struggles have come against good defensive lines, with them hanging 27+ on the likes of the Chiefs, Raiders, and Cowboys. This game could be an absolute massacre in New York.
1u – Green Bay Packers Over 26.5 Total Points | -125
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland’s offense is not “fixed”. Woo, yay, they hung 41 points on the Dolphins. Most teams score 30+ against them this year so cool your Jets if you suddenly think this offense is going to be a steam roller now. That was just the second time this season they have gone over 30-points and just the fifth over 20. This week they are facing a very good Steelers defense, who they labored to 21 points against two weeks ago. Three times in the last five games the Steelers have held their opponents to under 20 points. Even if the Browns do get to 20, I do not see the Steelers doing the same.
Devlin “Duck” Hodges may be an improvement over Mason Rudolph but he is not “fixing” this offense either. The Steelers are banged up offensive and are relying on their defense to keep games tight. The Steelers have totaled 40 points in the last three games. They are not suddenly about to break out against a fairly solid Browns defense, which held them to seven points two weeks ago.
1u – Under 39.5 Total Points | -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars
I love watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. Their games are pure theatre every week. Whether it is blowing out the Rams or throwing games away, they are a joy to have on our screens for our entertainment every week. Since Week 3, they have been held under 24 points on two occasions, by the Saints and Titans, who have more than solid defenses. On both of those occasions, they should have got to that 24 number had it not been for bad Jameis Winston throws in one and bad refereeing in the other.
This week, they face a reeling Jaguars team, which has allowed 26, 33 and 42 points the last three weeks. Yep, that is an average of 33.67 points allowed per game. I never like trusting too much money on Jameis Winston but this week feels like a slam dunk for a guy in contention to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Let’s just hope that league-leading number in interceptions doesn’t cost us some points here.
2u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 23.5 Total Points | -125
Ben Rolfe is an NFL picks writer and editor at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and all of our writers NFL Week 11 picks, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.