Week 11 saw me essentially break even. Josh Jacobs was a few yards shy of me hitting all of this player props, while Jameis Winston did Jameis Winston things, throwing an interception on the Saints one-yard line when he had 1st and goal to cost us their team total over bet. I didn’t lose money, though, so I can’t complain. You can read a recap of all of our weeks in the weekly Sheep Report. If you want to read my thoughts on the picks I got correct, you can go back to my Week 11 article. As always, before we get to the 2019 Week 12 picks, and why the Buccaneers and Falcons are the best bet for an over, I’ll recap my misses and see if there is anything we can learn.

Week 11 NFL Picks Recap

Carolina Panthers

I wasn’t a believer in the Falcons defensive awakening against the Saints, and I’m still not. There was market resistance, and we got the worst of the number, so that isn’t good from a process standpoint. Again, I wasn’t a believer in the Falcons, but I should have been able to read the market and wait for a better number.

Buccaneers team total/spread

I never like to blame my losses on bad beats, but this was kind of a bad beat. The Buccaneers had 1st and goal on the one and couldn’t deliver. I don’t feel wrong about the (+6) as I thought it was a value play at that point. Maybe I shouldn’t continue to bet on Jameis Winston. Spoiler alert: I’m not learning my lesson this week. More on that below.

Josh Jacobs

Jacobs was benched for two series because he fumbled and ended up eight yards short of cashing all my props on him. Derek Carr also had a two-yard passing touchdown and a three-yard rushing touchdown. Not complaining, just stating what happened. The props were still profitable, but I could’ve used the extra eight yards for my weekly total.

D.J. Moore

I’ll be conscience of taking D.J. Moore touchdown props in the future, as he only has three so far in his career. He doesn’t seem to get the kind of targets conducive to scoring touchdowns either.

Dallas/Jacksonville teaser

I don’t have data to back this up, but I suspect books are comfortable taking a stand with any spread they leave within optimal teaser range. Are they unplayable? No, because had I swapped the Jaguars for the Jets, my teaser would have cashed. It’s just something to keep in mind for the future.

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