Week 11 should bring us another cracker of a Monday Night Football matchup. This week the NFL heads to Mexico as the Los Angeles Chargers “host” the Kansas City Chiefs. This AFC West matchup was expected to be a clash of two playoff-bound teams, but the Chargers’ struggles have changed that narrative somewhat. Instead, the story is about whether the Chiefs can bounce back from losing four of their last six, or can the Chargers somewhat revive their playoff hopes while piling more misery on the Chiefs? The Chargers are well-rested coming off Thursday Night Football last week, but they will have their work cut out if they want to head to their bye week at 5-6. Let’s take a look at what our team thinks about this game with the Week 11 MNF picks.
Location: Estadio Azteca
Time: 8:15 pm EST
Spread: Chargers +4
This game has held pretty steady with the Chargers getting four points this week. It has briefly flicked up to 4.5 at points but seems to be settled in that region. The Chiefs are receiving the majority of the bets and the money so far, so do not be surprised if the line slips up towards five in the build-up to the game. As for the total, the majority of the bets are coming in on the over, but the money has favored closer to even, suggesting the big bettors are taking the under.
“These neutral site games are really tough to call. My instinct is that we will see a lot of scoring late as teams wear down in the altitude. However, I just worry it might have a sluggish start, keeping me away from playing either the team or overall totals here, but my lean is towards all the overs. Instead, I am going to look towards a prop bet for my official play. Last Thursday, I hit on Nick Chubb’s rushing yards, and I am going back to that well with Melvin Gordon.
After a sluggish start to his season, Gordon has rounded into shape the last two weeks with 188 rushing yards in total. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were steamrolled last week by Derrick Henry. I expect to see the Chargers use the run game a ton to try and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. There should be enough opportunity for Gordon to get over 80 rushing yards again this week.”
1u – Melvin Gordon Over 70.5 Rushing Yards @ -117
“I don’t have a great read on this game. Kansas City is the better team, but it’s a divisional game in Mexico, so the term “all bets are off” seems relevant here. I do have a slightly different angle to tackle, however. It’s really more of a personal theory than anything, but hear me out. Some of you who follow along on the All-Access twitter page might remember my thread about betting against your own fantasy players from a few weeks back. This came up in Week 9 when I needed a big night from Ezekiel Elliot against the Giants to win my fantasy week, so I proceeded to take the Under on his overall yardage prop. I lost the bet, but Zeke did enough to secure my fantasy win. This is a strategy that can be employed in any primetime situation.
This week, in particular, Patrick Mahomes will have a major say in deciding fantasy games across the country this week, including my own. As a Mahomes owner, I’ll likely end up betting against his passing yardage prop. Conversely, if you’re playing against Mahomes on Monday Night, why not bet on him to throw a bunch of TD passes? At least you would ensure yourself a payout if you lose in fantasy. One last prop I like to take advantage of in fading my own fantasy team is when my opponent has a defense playing against me in primetime games. Whenever this scenario plays out, I grab the YES (+200) on either team to score a defensive or special teams TD. If you are going to suffer a heartbreaking fantasy loss on Monday or Sunday Night, why not cash out some coin in the process?”
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