Just as Lord Stark once said, “Winter is Coming,” and that sentiment holds true for the National Football League. The weather forecasts for heatwaves and rain are giving way to cold fronts and chances of snow. Now let’s more in-depth look and see if you have any affected players in this NFL Week 10 fantasy football forecast.
It’s a dark week across the fantasy football landscape for owners as we have hit the appropriately named “Bye-pocalypse.” Week 10 has six teams on a bye, sending owners scrambling to the waiver wire in an attempt to patch together a serviceable lineup. Hopefully, you capitalized on some of the recommendations made by some of our analysts in the Week 10 waiver mock draft, as well as our Week 10 waiver wire article.
Note: All times listed are Eastern Standard Time.
Chance of Wintery Weather
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers -5.5 (4:25 pm) – 47 o/u
Although some of us might shudder at these weather conditions, folks in Green Bay refer to this as “Football Weather.” Lambeau Field turns into the Frozen Tundra this weekend as we have our first game of the season in sub-freezing temperatures. Kickoff will see 35-degree temperatures that will steadily fall during the game. Winds around 10-15mph will push the real-feel temperatures well into the teens. Any precipitation, if any, would only be very light flurries, and I don’t see this having any impact on the game at only a 20% chance.
At the extremes, can cold temperatures affect NFL teams’ game plans and total scores? Sure. However, given the data available, we aren’t at a concerning level here for DFS or betting purposes that would make me shy away from any action.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -2.5 (1:00 PM) – 41 o/u
Although the game will be chilly, the feelings towards both head coach Matt Nagy and QB Mitch Trubisky couldn’t be any hotter for Chicago Bears fans. If the Bears are struggling anywhere close to how they did in the first half of last week, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the move made to Chase Daniel at QB.
Looking at the line, I am surprised to see the Bears as favorites. Ever since placing RB Kerryon Johnson on IR, Matthew Stafford has been playing as well as he has all season. Between that and the Bears’ struggles, I personally lean towards the Detroit Lions here. Weather conditions of 42-degree temperatures, cloudy skies, and 11 mph winds won’t have any impact on this game.
Baltimore Ravens -10.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 PM) – 44.5 o/u
Coming off their upset win over the previously undefeated New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens have a great matchup in Week 10 against the winless Cincinnati Bengals. Currently giving up a league-worst 177.6 rushing yards per game, Lamar Jackson has one of the best possible matchups and comes in as my number one ranked QB for fantasy football in Week 10. If I can find a player prop for Jackson’s rushing yards, I’m taking it in a heartbeat. Sixty-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and 7mph winds won’t be any concern here.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns -2.5 (1:00 PM) – 40.5 o/u
Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns’ offense have been a major disappointment this season, and things won’t get much better against a Buffalo Bills’ pass defense that ranks No. 5 overall in DVOA per Football Outsiders. However, they have been a bit more susceptible to the ground attack, making a rushing forward approach with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, now back from suspension, a solid possibility.
How much playing time Hunt will get remains a question. Chubb is still going to be a low-end RB1 most weeks, but the return of Hunt limits his ceiling. The weather forecast for this game includes 51-degree temperatures, cloudy skies, and 10mph winds. They should have little to no impact on this game.
Kansas City Chiefs -6 at Tennessee Titans (1:00 PM) – 49.5 o/u
Shortly after Patrick Mahomes was hurt, PFN’s own injury expert, Duane Scotti, PT, DPT, Ph.D., OCS, stated this would be a three-week injury. Three weeks later, Mahomes makes his return in Week 10. Reports did say that he could have played last week, but the Kansas City Chiefs made the long-term decision to rest their superstar QB.
As we have seen, a healthy Mahomes is a dangerous Mahomes. Although the Tennessee Titans have a solid defense, I like him and the Chiefs to come away with the win here and get back to the dangerous team they were before his injury. The 56-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and 5mph winds will have zero impact on this game.
New York Giants -3 at New York Jets (1:00 PM) – 44.5 o/u
Is it really a road game if you are playing at home? As far as fantasy football is concerned, the New York Jets have two players who we need to temper expectations on in Week 10. Le’Veon Bell, who suffered a knee injury last week against Miami, is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Going against the eighth-worst team in terms of rushing yards given up (127.9), sheer volume alone makes Bell an RB2 this week. The second player is tight end Chris Herndon.
Although “active” in Week 9, Herndon didn’t see a single snap and has not been on the field yet in 2019. For fantasy football players who have stashed him all this time, I would take a wait and see approach before putting him in your starting lineups unless you don’t have a better option. With how much of a wasteland the tight end position has been this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case. I would make sure to rush to your waivers and see if someone has dropped him. When healthy, Herndon could be a Top-12 TE for the rest of the season. As for the weather, 53-degree temperatures, partly sunny skies, and seven mph winds are no concern here.
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (1:00 PM) – 52.5 o/u
With both players inside my Top 3 of wide receivers rankings, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin look to feast against one of the worst passing defenses in terms of passing yards in the NFL. It will not surprise me at all if this is more of the most stacked games in DFS for Week 10. The pace of play for both teams leads to ample opportunities for scoring.
Stacking players like Kyler Murray with Christian Kirk or Jameis Winston plus Evans or Godwin could bring a high return on investment. Even a player like Ronald Jones could be a sneaky play for an RB2. One player who I am down on though, is David Johnson. Between dealing with a nagging injury and the improved rush defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the last several weeks makes Johnson a lower RB2 for me. Unlike in Green Bay, 81-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and 7mph winds will be great weather for this Week 10 matchup.
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 PM) – 43 o/u
The Pittsburgh Steelers have officially ruled James Conner out for Week 10, meaning we will see a steady dose of Jaylen Samuels as the focal point of the offense. Given the up and down play of Mason Rudolph, this is their best course of action.
Todd Gurley has the tougher matchup of the two starting running backs. The Steelers have allowed just 3.22 yards per rush and a single touchdown to running backs over the last five weeks. I have both Gurley and Samuels ranked as RB2 plays for this week. The weather could get a bit chilly, but otherwise, the 53-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and 9mph winds won’t be a problem.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -6 (Monday 8:15 PM) – 47.5 o/u
We very well might be seeing the return of one of the best divisional rivalries in the NFL this week. As it stands, these are two of the top NFL teams in the rankings and one of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend.
One of the biggest storylines heading into this game will be how the Seattle Seahawks and MVP candidate Russell Wilson plan to use newly acquired WR Josh Gordon. The combination of him, Tyler Lockett, and rookie sensation D.K. Metcalf make for one of the scariest groups of wide receivers around as any of them are a matchup nightmare. Thankfully, the weather won’t get in the way of what should be a great football game as the 57-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and 9mph winds won’t be a factor.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -14 (1:00 PM) – 51 o/u
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -11.5 (4:05 PM) – 44 o/u
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys -3 (8:20 PM) – 48.5 o/u
Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.