Week 10 Best Bets Podcast: Saints vs. Titans, Browns vs. Patriots, Seahawks vs. Packers

In the latest episode of Moneyline & Wine, Anita, Jessica, and Brett preview some of Week 10’s Best Bets – Saints vs. Titans, Browns vs. Patriots, and Seahawks vs. Packers.

In the latest episode of Moneyline & Wine, Anita, Jessica, and Brett preview some of Week 10’s Best Bets – New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots, and Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers. Anita also talks about the fantasy impact of Odell Beckham Jr. signing with the Los Angeles Rams and gives her DFS lineup advice for this weekend’s slate of games.

Will the Saints slow down the red-hot Titans? With Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both returning to the starting lineup for their teams respectively, will the Packers and Seahawks engage in a shootout that may hit the over? How will the Browns fare against the Patriots?

Week 10 Best Bets: Moneyline & Wine

Please note that the transcript below has been lightly edited for clarity. You can view the full episode of Moneyline & Wine in the video player above (or in the lower corner of your screen) or listen to it on your favorite podcast players such as Apple or Spotify. The podcast player is also located above this section. To find specific Week 10 best bets, scroll down below.

Moneyline & Wine Transcript: Fantasy and Week 10 Best Bets

Brett Diggs [00:00:00] Welcome everybody to Week 10’s edition of Moneyline and Wine. I’m your host, Brett Diggs, and I’m with, of course, Jessica Gonsalves and Anita Marks getting you all ready for Week 10’s edition of everything fantasy, betting, and a little news in between. How are you doing, ladies?

Anita [00:00:22] I’m great, besides the fact that Week 9 and of course, the Ravens vs. Dolphins game put me in a complete hole. I don’t know about you, Jess, but like, I need Week 10 to deliver. I need Week 10 to freakin’ deliver.

Jess [00:00:43] I’m right there with you.

Brett [00:00:45] Week 9 was crazy. Yeah, absolutely. What are we sipping on today, ladies?

Jess [00:00:49] I’m drinking a little Pinot Noir.

Anita [00:00:54] It’s about 65 [degrees] here in the city. So, you know, whenever, that temperature gets warm, I’ll break out a little more white wine because you know me. You know, it’s all about the food. It’s all about the temperature.

Brett [00:01:00] Yeah. Yeah. I myself, you know, the hard stuff, the beer, that kind of thing. Week 9 did it to me.

Odell Beckham Jr. signs with the Los Angeles Rams

Brett [00:01:14]  Now, me personally, I’m an NFC West guy, big Seahawks fan. So the last 24 hours was not a good 24 hours for me because, breaking news — if you’ve been living under a rock, Odell Beckham Jr. has now signed with the Rams. Let me get your thoughts on that, ladies. Jess, do you want to take it first?

Jess [00:01:50] Sure, sure. So I just want to say I’m glad that he cleared waivers. I kind of expected it like I mentioned last week. And in all honesty, I’m just happy that he was able to be a free agent for the first time in his career and be able to choose where he wanted to go. Maybe this will all lead to him being more humble and happier all around.

And so, so it’s quite possible, you know, and I also think that it’s telling where the opportunity that he actually ended up going to, I mean, he could have gone somewhere else and been the number one wide receiver, hands down. And instead, he chose to go to the Rams, where he’s clearly going to be the number two with Cooper Kupp, who probably will still be number one. And it’s all just showing right now that he’s here to go and win a championship, and that’s more important to him.

How will Beckham fit in with the Rams?

Anita [00:02:37] I don’t even think he’s the number two there. I don’t even think he’s the number three. I don’t even think it’s number four there. I mean, I don’t. I’m sorry.

So, you know, full disclosure, I worked for the [New York] Giants for several years. I was part of their broadcast team and I was there when Odell was there. I was there when, I call it The Claw, when The Claw Catch happened. And the dude’s celebrity stature went through the roof. I mean, overnight.

And it’s a big ego to feed. It’s a big ego to feed now. And he wasn’t happy in Cleveland because he wasn’t getting the ball. Now you’re going to go to another team where you’re not going to get the ball — that offense begins and ends with Cooper Kupp now.

Cooper Kupp gets 10-12 targets a game. Robert Woods, a few weeks ago, was pissed off that he wasn’t getting the ball. Desean Jackson just left and went to the Las Vegas Raiders because he wasn’t getting the ball. Yeah, like really? So now you’re going to go to a team that — don’t forget Van Jefferson. Let me say Van Jefferson can be a number two on somebody else’s roster. He’s a three on this roster because of Woods and Kupp. And, Tyler Higbee is a beast.

So you’re upset in Cleveland because you’re not getting the ball. Do you think you’re going to get the ball in Los Angeles with the Rams? And it’s not like Cleveland was out of the race or out of the hunt to possibly win the Super Bowl this year. They’ve got a good team. They’ve got a great defense. So, you know, listen, I wish Odell nothing but the best. What made him unhappy in Cleveland is going to rear its ugly head in Los Angeles.

I don’t understand the thought process. But again, it’s for just the remainder of the season. He becomes a free agent after this, and then he could go if he’s not happy. Being the number four on this team, then he can go somewhere else and be the number one.

Here’s another thing — it’s not often that that life checks all the boxes for you where you’re the number one wide receiver and you win a Super Bowl — that doesn’t happen often.

Brett [00:04:50] Going back to that point, Anita, going back to that point, that last point you just made. There’s a great podcast — More than Football with Trey Wingo, and they recently had Trent Dilfer on and he basically said, what you said — Odell just left a Mike Shanahan-based system in Cleveland under Kevin Stefanski, and now he’s going to the Rams in L.A., where he wasn’t the dude. He wasn’t the dude in Cleveland. And now you go to another team where you also aren’t the dude. And it seems like Odell has a pattern the history of wanting to be the dude. Right? Exactly. That’s Trent Dilfer’s term, by the way.

So, all right. Let’s move on from Odell and march toward our Week 10 best bets.

Cam Newton returns to the Carolina Panthers

Brett Baby, I’m back. Cam Newton. How about that Carolina, right? You know, you don’t sign him when he left, and then what you give you bring in Teddy Bridgewater, and then you give up draft capital for Sam Darnold, just to have Cam come back a year later, a year and a half later. Talk about that. How about that?

Anita [00:05:59] Really quick. This is all I have to say about it and that is, the Carolina Panthers have the most difficult schedule moving forward at all — the number one, most difficult schedule. They still have to face the [Tampa Bay] Buccaneers twice. They’ve got the Saints again. They have to go to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Cam Newton — is he really going to make the difference? Is he that difference maker? Just roll with P.J. Walker. I personally just think Cam’s time has come and gone. So this signing is really, really surprising. This is really surprising to me.

Brett [00:06:34] You know, they did give him a lot more money this go-round.

Anita [00:06:37] Exactly. So, I’m just I’m really surprised by this decision. Jess, what do you think?

Jess [00:06:43] Yeah, I’m with you guys on that. You know, maybe, maybe someone called him in the little telephone booth and thought maybe he was Superman and was going to come to save the day, but I’m right there with you. He didn’t show — Cam was whatever last year. Now he’s going in halfway through a season where he doesn’t know the playbook that well, and I just feel like they’re if they’re expecting him to save the day, I really don’t see it happening.

Week 10 Best Bets: Saints vs. Titans

Brett [00:07:07] Those are the main two headlines going into Week 10. Let’s dive into the games and our Week 10 best bets. First off, we got the [New Orleans] Saints at Tennessee [Titans]. Jess, what you got for that?

Jess [00:07:15] Yeah. So at the Saints on this one, I’m all over the Saints this week. I took them at +3. I’m going with them again, just like I went with them last week for the number one reason — their defense.

They are really good defensively, and they have the best run stop defense in the league, according to DVOA. And then you have the Titans, where even with [Derrick] Henry out last week, they still had a 50% rush rate on first downs. So, that’s one of the most in the NFL.

So, I feel like they’re going to expect that going into this matchup and this is exactly what the Saints are going to do. They’re going to be able to dominate this. And then you have the Titans again, where their offensive line is struggling. Their offensive pass DVOA is actually ranked 22nd in the league right now.

And you have the other side of the ball where I feel like [Trevor] Siemian. He should have a better game this week and then they’re going to sprinkle a little Taysom Hill here and there. We know how Sean Payton loves that, and he incorporates it in his offense where it throws teams off.

The Titans defense — it’s not good. The game last week against the Rams was an outlier. He threw some, you know, Matthew Stafford, he threw some silly interceptions, which were unlike him. At the end of the day, the line says it all here.

The Titans team, with the second-best record in the NFL, that in the last four weeks has beaten the Bills, they shut down the Chiefs to three points in a dominating win, they handled the Colts twice this season, and the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. And last week , they embarrassed the Super Bowl favorites — the Rams. So only three points against a Saints team with a backup quarterback starting.

I’ll take that Week 10 best bet all day. I see the Titans. Yeah, getting shut down to probably about 20 points or so.

Is Deonte Harris a sneaky fantasy play in Week 10?

Anita [00:08:58] Listen, full disclosure. I’m a Taysom Hill fan, right? Like, hey, I was disappointed that they didn’t go with Taysom Hill, to begin with at the start of the season. And now I’m even more disappointed that they didn’t go with Taysom Hill over Trevor Siemian. I’m not a huge Trevor Siemian fan, I’m just not, but I’ll tell you who he is a fan of and that’s down Deonte Harris, and he loves targeting him.

So, two things, you know in fantasy — I think Deonte Harris can be a sneaky good FLEX play for folks this week who want a single in a few, and especially if you’re going to if this game is going to be available as a solo DFS play.

Since Trevor Siemian has taken over at the quarterback position, Harris has 13 targets from him. So it’s not like Callaway is running, running away with much. Odell didn’t end up there. Michael Thomas is done for the season. And, here’s another one thing for you and that’s you know, Alvin Kamara is dealing with a knee issue. It might be Mark Ingram.

With all due respect to Mark Ingram, I don’t think anybody could hold a candle to Alvin Kamara, especially in the passing game. So, if Alvin Kamara is not 100%, he’s not getting a lot of snaps. Who knows, maybe he’s going to be inactive. I just like Deonte Harris. And again, the chemistry and how Siemian likes to target him is pretty huge.

So I’m going to use him in DFS. I’m definitely — if I’m desperate for a wide receiver in a deep league, a 14- or 16-man league — I’m definitely going to pick him up and play him. And also, I’m probably going to play the over receptions and over receiving yards for him this week as well.

Week 10 Best Bets: Browns vs. Titans

Brett [00:10:36] Nice, good. Great point about Kamara. Going from Tennessee, going up to Foxborough with the Browns at New England. Jess, what do you have for that in regard to Week 10 best bets?

Jess [00:10:47] I want to first talk about — this week, it shows how important lines shopping is getting to the best number. Browns is all over the place with some books you can find it at +1 all the way down, all the way to +2.5. So if you want to be serious about this one, the most important rule is to have as many outs as possible. And with this game, in particular, I bought the hook on it. So I took Browns +3. Because even if the Patriots win, I don’t see how it’s more than three points. And all of my simulations tell me that the Browns actually win outright.

Now, looking at the game and getting into our Week 10 best bets. You have Mac Jones, where he struggles under pressure. We’ve already seen this twice now this season with the Chargers and then last week against the Panthers. In both of those games, he had a negative EPA per play. I’m sorry, Anita, but even Jordan Love had a better EPA per play last week than Jones, and now he’s facing the Browns, where they are second in the league at bothering quarterbacks in the pocket.

The Patriots are going to struggle offensively in this matchup. You also have Isaiah Wynn going up against Myles Garrett, who leads the league in sacks. And Wynn has allowed four sacks this season, which is the seventh most.

Browns defense is starting to click

Jess And the Browns, their defense is healthy now, and it’s showing. Denzel Ward and Troy Hill. They both had made great plays the past two weeks. They have a great deep secondary, a stout offensive line, and of course, they have great coaching.

Now, we know the other side of the ball where it’s Bill Belichick, and he always does an amazing job at preparing his team to come in and have these matchups, especially defensively. The weakness, when it comes to their defense, is being able to stop the run. They’re below average. They ranked 17th in rush DVOA, and here they are, going up against the Browns, who are number one in rush DVOA.

The Patriots have been successful when it comes to running the ball, but the Browns rank fifth in rush DVOA too, so that’s going to be a struggle. Now you have Brandon Bolden, who hasn’t proved much where Johnson has. So, if both teams rely on third-string running backs in this situation, I’ll trust the Browns more. The Browns should be favorites and I’ll gladly take this Week 10 best bet of +3 to back a Super Bowl contender from preseason over a team that was supposed to be average.

Brett [00:13:12] Alright. Anita, what do you got?

Anita’s fantasy outlook for Browns vs. Patriots

Anita [00:13:15] Yeah. So, really quick. I want to share with you just because I do like this play. I was talking to my friend Randy Robles, who is high up there with the Elias Sports Bureau. This is an interesting stat. So far this season, small road dogs are 37-17. So like, you know, +0.5, +1.5, +3, +3.5 — small road dogs are 37-17 this season in the NFL. I really like this play as we talk about Week 10 best bets.

In regard to fantasy. You’ve got D’Ernest Johnson, who’s going to be filling in for [Nick] Chubb expecting Chubb to be inactive. Liste,n in Week 7, he put up 168 total yards with 24 of 31 backfield touches. So, he is the man, so hopefully, you picked him up on your waiver wire.

I’m also going to use him in DFS because one thing that we do know about the Browns is that they begin with the rushing game. So even though Chubb is not back there, they don’t have Kareem Hunt back either — he’s still on IR — Johnson is going to get a lot of volume this week.

And on the opposite side, regarding the Patriots, both of their number one and their number two running backs are dealing with concussions. So there’s a chance those two might be inactive. So if you haven’t picked up Bolden yet off your waiver wire, I would do that. J.J. Taylor is the other RB back there, but each and every week he’s inactive — not because of, you know, an illness or an injury — it’s just they value Bolden more than they value Taylor. So, you know, #Run, Don’t Walk.

I would pick up Bolden. He had 10 touches for 80 yards last week, so. So keep that in mind. So to back up, which I find is really going to be interesting in this matchup, Jess, and that is both teams more than likely are going to play backup running backs. And for the Patriots, it will be their third-string running back and Bolden. So I would definitely pick him up and definitely, I think you can get him on the cheap in DFS, and I think he could be a solid, solid FLEX play for folks this week.

Brett [00:15:24] #Run, Don’t Walk for Bolden. And of course, we all know the great story that came out — was that in Week 7, was when D’Ernest Johnson started?

Anita [00:15:34] 168 total yards.

Brett [00:15:36] Right? Yeah. And his story about how he’d DM’ed every all 32 teams in the league say, “Hey, I’m D’Ernest Johnson, you know, I want to come play for you guys.” And he just took off that night. So great story now with D’Ernest Johnson.

Week 10 Best Bets: Seahawks vs. Packers

Brett [00:25:09] Now, another Week 10 best bet and the game of the week, in my opinion. The Seahawks travel to Green Bay. Two storylines involving both quarterbacks with Russ coming back from a finger injury. Did you know that was like a serious injury, but a miraculous expedited return thanks to Russell’s team, apparently? And a lot of prayers, of course.  And Green Bay? Will they get Rodgers back? We don’t know. We don’t know. But please, Jess, take us away with that.

Jess [00:16:21] With this matchup, I like the over 49 points because we have two powerhouse quarterbacks going up against defenses. This is — they can make explosive plays on. You have Russ that’s back, and he should be able to cook up a feast with Lockett and Metcalf. I’m sure fantasy owners are really excited about this.

And I also expect Rodgers to come out hot and show us why he’s the face of Green Bay. I have good belief that he’s going to be starting this weekend, and if he is, you know, their offense is top ten and they’re facing a defense that has a bottom 10 secondary. So this is just the perfect opportunity for Rodgers to come in and just show us what he does best.

I have a feeling, I have a feeling that he is just ready. He’s ready to go. I mean, in his last interview, he basically just ended it with, “Hey, I’m ready to just come play football. I want to do what I do best and let’s just leave it at that.” And that’s what I like. Let’s do that. Let enough about, you know, all the fluff around it. Let’s just get in and watch him play and be explosive.

And then you have the Seahawks, where offensively they have a total DVOA ranked eighth and Russ is back. So this is only going to benefit them even more. And yeah, they’re facing a defense where they’re middle of the road, but they really struggle at stopping the run.

So they’re actually ranked 26th in rush EPA. So this is only going to benefit the Seahawks even more because what are the Seahawks love to do? They love to run the ball. And then again, as I mentioned with Russ and all of this Russ and company, they’re going to be able to have a field day too, especially fantasy-wise.

Anita’s thoughts on Aaron Rodgers

Anita [18:03] Yeah. So, you know, I find this game really interesting. I’m on Seattle’s side. I like Seattle getting the 3.5 here. You know, with Aaron Rodgers, he’s not even allowed in the building until Saturday. He’s not even allowed in the building until Saturday. Granted, it’s Aaron Rodgers. He can play in his sleep. I get all that, but he’s been away.

Brett [00:18:26] COVID is the great equalizer here. Like, you don’t know how that affects the lungs and everything else.

Anita [00:18:32] And exactly — that was another point I was going to make. He’s feeling the effects of COVID. It’s not like, you know, he’s not one of these players that, oh, I tested positive, but like, I’m fine. Like, he’s he actually, he has symptoms and that’s what’s been reported.

Brett [00:18:46] So you can hear it in the interview, too, and you can hear it on The Pat McAfee Show. He was a little nasally.

Week 10 Best Bets: Can Russell Wilson lead the Seahawks to victory?

Anita [00:18:51] Yeah, so I’m leaning towards Seattle here getting the points I liked and getting the 3.5. But in regard to fantasy, with Russell Wilson back, you got to love D.K. Metcalf, so. And not that you even would consider not starting him, but also I like using him in DFS. Also, I like, I think, the over 5.5 receptions the over/under is 69.5 receiving yards. I also like him to score a touchdown.

So, 23 targets is what D.K. Metcalf got in his last four games without Russell Wilson, and he received 33 targets previously with Russell Wilson. You’re talking about 10 more targets per four games, so that’s pretty significant. Also, he scored a touchdown in six of the eight games that he’s played this season. And also, keep in mind, the Packers are still without Jaire Alexander, so their secondary is nothing to write home about. So I really love D.K. Metcalf in this matchup and a big reason why is because Russell Wilson is back.

Brett [00:20:02] Quickly, do you actually think Russ maintains that same accuracy or even like a decent amount of accuracy with that injured, injured finger coming back?

Anita [00:20:13] I don’t. I mean, I don’t know. I mean, we’re just we’re going to see. Here’s what I do know and I’ve been following the reports out of Seattle, and that is that he’s looked great at practice. This is what we’ve heard — he’s looked great at practice. So, you know, but do you believe everything you hear? No, but you’re right.

Brett [00:20:32] Jess, how do you feel about it? Anything?

Jess [00:20:35] No, I mean, as I mentioned, I feel like Russell Wilson is going to have a good game coming back. This is a perfect opportunity to show us how good he, you know, he still is even with an injury like this. And like I said, Rodgers, I feel like is going to come out and prove himself as well with the defensive matchup. And yeah, if I honestly, if I was to pick a side, though, Anita, I was leaning the Packers -3. So, maybe a little side of bet here.

Anita [00:21:03] Another bottle of wine, Jess?

Jess [00:21:10] I was leaning the Packers, but I decided to take the over. I like the over more as one of my Week 10 best bets.

Anita’s DFS Lineup in Week 10

Anita [00:21:18] Nice. Nice. You’re funny. You’re funny. OK, so do you want to know my DFS lineup?

Brett [00:21:22] We would love to know your DFS. Let’s go, what do you got?

Anita [00:21:25] OK. All right, let’s do it. So. So there’s again, I know I always say this because we never know when there are new viewers or listeners, right? And that is like. So this is my base DFS that I work off of. And then obviously, I switch it up. I probably have anywhere between 35 to 40 different lineups each and every week.

Tom Brady at QB

But here is my base. I love Tom Brady this week against the Washington Football Team, right? Like, I think Washington’s defense has to be one of the most disappointing units so far this season, even though they’re coming off of a bye. Both these teams are coming off of a bye. Regardless, I still think Tom Brady passes for over 250 yards and three touchdowns this week.

Now, he does have some injuries. Antonio Brown is not expected to play. Godwin is injured as well and Scotty Miller is dealing with an injury. I love me some Tyler Johnson, so I’m going to stack. He averaged six targets last week. So I’m going to stack Tom Brady with Tyler Johnson. You get Tyler Johnson for like I want to say, like $3,500.

Jonathan Taylor leads the list of favorable RB matchups

So, I love Jonathan Taylor against the Jets. Their rush defense is just horrible. I mentioned Bolden. I’m putting my money where my mouth is, so I like Bolden. I’m also going to switch it out with Johnson as well. I think Bolden and Johnson are going to get a lot of volume and a lot of work, considering that they’re going to be assuming that Bolden is, you know, the healthiest back in the backfield for the Patriots.

You know, if Harris or Stevenson can play, then obviously I won’t play Bolden. But if old Bolden is it, I think for the value that you pay for him in the volume that he’s going to get, I think is pretty substantial.

Justin Jefferson and Jamal Agnes names to watch

Justin Jefferson, I’m going to play. What we are hearing out of Minnesota is that he needs more targets. We need to get him more targets. OK, I’m going to bank on that. I’m going to bank on it. The coach is telling us we need to get Justin Jefferson more targets. Fine. I’m going to play him in DFS.

Also, Jamal Agnew, people are sleeping on this guy. He is the number one wide receiver with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s not Shenault. It’s not Jones. It’s Agnew. And he’s developed really great chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be playing from behind this week as well.

Kyle Pitts and Noah Fant the tight ends to target?

Kyle Pitts as my tight end going up against the Dallas Cowboys, they’re not great against opposing tight ends. And let’s be honest, Kyle Pitts isn’t your typical tight end. He’s utilized more as a wide receiver. So I’ll pay the money for him.

Also, Noah Fant is back in action for the Denver Broncos coming off of the COVID-19 list. He’s healthy. The Eagles play a lot of zone defense. Therefore, I think everything’s going to be short and sweet, and I think Teddy Bridgewater is going to be looking his way a lot and he should find some open space in that zone coverage.

The best of the rest – Steelers and Terry McLaurin

And last but not least, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense against the Detroit Lions, a team that I think has given up on the season. I also like Terry McLaurin, by the way, for Washington. I think they’re going to be trying to play catch up with Tom Brady and can’t run the football against the Bucs. But you can pass on them. And so I do like Terry McLaurin as well.

So in DFS lineups where I play Bolden, I can afford Jefferson. In DFS lineups where I played Johnson, you can afford McLaurin, so just FYI. That’s why I shared. I shared those two and those are my two base DFS lineups that I’ll be working off

Brett [00:24:56] Alright. There you have it. Our Week 10 best bets and DFS lineups from Anita Marks and that concludes the Week 10 edition of Moneyline & Wine. I’m your host, Bret Diggs, of course, with Jessica Gonsalves and Anita Marks.

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