The Washington Commanders face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a mid-afternoon showdown in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Commanders go on the road with a new-look franchise from head to toe while the Buccaneers look to build upon the magic that was a resurgent 2023 season.
For all information NFL betting and fantasy football related, here is a one-stop shop for the Commanders at Buccaneers season-opening matchup.
Commanders at Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Commanders +160, Buccaneers -192
- Total: 42.5
I’m not buying this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team after their surprise playoff berth and Wild Card Round victory last year.
In this matchup in particular, I’m anticipating the Buccaneers’ defense struggling against Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels. This is a unit that ranked just 24th in pass defense efficiency last season by EPA and 29th on all pass plays with a scramble according to TruMedia.
Going into 2024, the Buccaneers have the 22nd-ranked defense after parting ways with three starters from last season.
The Commanders’ defense is even worse, but Daniels without any regular season tape will be harder to game plan for than Baker Mayfield.
Prediction: Commanders 28, Buccaneers 26
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Commanders at Buccaneers Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Channel: Fox
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FOX NOW
- Radio Stations: BIG 100.3, 98ROCK Tampa
- Starting QBs: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield
The final game of the late afternoon window sees the Commanders heading to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Buccaneers. The Commanders started a new era this season after the team changed owners in 2023. While Ron Rivera did his best to keep his job, he had lost his touch in the league.
With a head coaching and quarterback opening, Washington had yet another opportunity to hit the reset button and find a new direction. Owner Josh Harris and the front office brought in Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to take over as the latest head coach. Then, armed with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, selected Daniels to be the next starter in a very long line of quarterbacks.
Quinn focused more on the defense, giving it a complete overhaul after the Commanders traded quite a few pieces away in 2023. While the middle of the defensive line stayed the same with Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, the Commanders brought in Clelin Ferrell and Dorance Armstrong to fill out the edges. The defensive line wasn’t the only area that saw an overhaul, as almost every position group saw a starter added.
Their opponent, the Buccanneers, decided to run it back with quarterback Mayfield under center after a 4,000-yard season last year. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return for another year as Tampa Bay’s dominant duo, making Mayfield’s life easier. However, the depth behind the two veterans is light, to say the least, with Trey Palmer receiving 68 targets and Rakim Jarrett seeing just nine.
While Mayfield looked good last season, the Buccaneers are on borrowed time following Tom Brady’s retirement. With aging offensive weapons and a middle-of-the-road quarterback, it’s only a matter of years before Tampa Bay finds itself in a rebuild without some significant moves in the near future.
Commanders at Buccaneers Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels: If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?
The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.
From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels. Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.
Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).
Baker Mayfield: I think a lot of what we saw from Mayfield last season is going to be difficult to repeat, though I think he’s a fine QB2 in this spot. Last season, Washington allowed an average passer rating of 105.7, not only the highest in the league but the worst defensive showing since the pandemic season of 2020.
The structure of this offense is a favorable one (viable pass-catching options and a versatile back that is more of an asset out of the backfield than between the tackles), and that is going to result in a few usable weeks – but I’m confident that you have one of the 17 quarterbacks I rank higher this week on your roster.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr.: I like Robinson this season more than most, but the optimism doesn’t carry over to the season opener. If Austin Ekeler is ever going to consistently cut into his touch count, it’ll come early in the season, thus making an 18+ touch afternoon somewhat of a longshot.
I think we see the volume turn in his favor before long, but without it, the ceiling isn’t that high. Only once last season did an RB reach 20 PPR points against the Bucs without having 24+ touches (Jonathan Taylor in Week 12; I like Robinson as much as anyone, and I think we can agree he’s no J.T.) With the third-best red-zone defense on the other end, this isn’t as favorable of a matchup as you might assume.
I’m Flexing Robinson in a few spots (ahead of Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard in my ranks) this week with the expectation of 10-12 PPR points. The logic behind the love for him this season was a cheap bet on an offense that could overachieve and his continued development as a pass catcher. I remain bullish on the player for the marathon that is the fantasy season, even if the first sprint isn’t an impressive one.
Austin Ekeler: I was vocal in my support of Robinson this offseason and that, naturally, comes layered with a bet against Ekeler. The one-time fantasy god came in 21.1% below fantasy expectations last season, a bad mark for anyone, let alone someone whose baseline was 17.7% over expectation.
The Buccaneers excelled in a few areas on the defensive side of the ball last season, but they were top six in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion to running backs. Ekeler, in my opinion, has a thin path to fantasy upside; if the production in the passing game is at all limited, he’s poised to hurt you more often than help.
Keep him rostered, but try not to get sucked in by the value that this name has held in the past.
Rachaad White: I’ve been lower on White than the industry for like 10 months now. Yes, that means I was burned in a significant way for the second half of last season, but I remain sold on the process – an inefficient back playing for an offense I don’t trust carries too much risk to rely on consistently.
I’m back for more fading of White this season … just not this week. The Commanders saw opponents throw 7.2 passes per game to running backs (fourth most) and were a bottom-10 rush defense in yards and yards per carry. In essence, every type of back found a way to victimize this defense, and 2024 should feature more of the same.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were talking about White as a sell-high by the middle of October, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, you can play your third-round pick with confidence as a top-15 option in PPR formats with a reasonably stable floor.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: Last season wasn’t pretty as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 yards per route run. Bringing in an athletic quarterback is no lock to fix that efficiency problem, but I like the chances of this offense being in scoring positions more often this year than last. That gives their unquestioned top target earner a chance to produce his best season.
Even in an uneven 2023 campaign, McLaurin posted six top-24 finishes (two top-10s). On the opposing sideline is a less-than-intimidating secondary, making his sheer volume of projectable looks worthy of a top-30 ranking. I’d play him in Tampa Bay over the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jayden Reed, two receivers who are on far superior offenses but figure to see 2-4 fewer opportunities.
Starting McLaurin this week is a bit of a leap of faith given how little we know about Daniels at the professional level, but if he is as dynamic on the ground as we assume and his passing grades are near accurate, his WR1 should be able to do enough in PPR formats to reward your trust in a plus-matchup.
Luke McCaffrey: I don’t think there was a “big” winner from the Jahan Dotson trade, but it did clear a path for McCaffrey to get on the field with regularity as a rookie; that’s at least interesting in an offense that could be pretty good in short order.
I liked him as a late stash during the draft season, but if he’s sitting on your waiver wire, I think he can stay there for now. The Bucs ranked 11th in opponent passer rating on short passes (under 15 yards) and 28th on deep passes (15+ air yards, 19.8% worse than league average), not exactly the optimal opponent for a receiver who relies on YAC.
The backend of your roster can be a revolving door – I think it’ll land on McCaffrey at some point, just not to open the season.
Mike Evans: Being out on Evans after the big 2023 season was one of my bolder calls this preseason, and I’m sticking with it. I don’t think he lives up to an ADP that is 50+ spots higher than it was 12 months ago — but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fail every week.
Tampa Bay’s WR1 gets to face a defense that allowed 16 touchdown passes of 25+ yards last season. Yes, that led the league. Obviously. In fact, it was more such scores than the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers, and Giants allowed combined.
Evans caught nine touchdown passes of 15+ air yards last season, the most in the league and good for a career-best.
In short, I don’t want you knocking on my virtual door to troll me about the Evans dud season prediction. I made that call knowing what stood in front of him in Week 1.
Chris Godwin: If this Mayfield offense is actually a house of cards, Godwin stands to lose the most value. I understand that he came on late last season (WR7 in total PPR points from Weeks 15-17, ranking ahead of Tyreek Hill), but he had the lowest slot usage of his career, and that is where a production floor can be established.
With White seeing plenty of those short-yardage targets and Godwin’s role downfield very much unstable, there is more risk than reward in this profile for me, even in a great spot. He ranks just outside of my top 30 at the position — I’d rather bet on offenses I trust more like Green Bay (Jayden Reed), Baltimore (Zay Flowers), or Houston (I wouldn’t blame you for playing three Texans ahead of Godwin!).
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: The king of the routes (second at the position and the Buccaneers’ team leader) is always on the field and rarely in fantasy lineups. It’s been over 10 months since the last time he reached 50 receiving yards in a regular season game.
The upside isn’t nearly enough to justify plugging him into a season-long league, but this matchup could make him an interesting DraftKings punt play in a PPR setting. The Commanders allowed the third most yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field – a five-catch, 55-yard performance would be enough to justify his price tag.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Commanders at Buccaneers Key Stats To Know
Commanders
Team: The Commanders had a -189 point differential last season, the third worst in franchise history (1954 and 1961 were worse).
QB: Jayden Daniels threw 9 INTs on 280 attempts during his final season at Arizona State … he had 7 INTs in two years at LSU (698 attempts).
Offense: The Commanders ranked 3rd in pass rate over expectation last season after ranking 27th in 2022.
Defense: Washington allowed an average passer rating of 105.7, not only the highest in the league but the worst defensive showing since the pandemic season of 2020.
Fantasy: The Commanders are the worst home team ATS over the past three seasons (7-16-2).
Betting: 58.8% of Washington games went over last season, the franchise’s highest rate since 2016.
Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs were 1 of 8 teams to not miss an extra point in 2023.
QB: Only C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts had a higher average depth of throw last season than Baker Mayfield (8.6 yards, NFL average: 7.7 yards).
Offense: The Bucs ran for a league-low 1,509 yards last season … there were 5 teams that had more than that through 12 weeks.
Defense: The Bucs ranked 11th in opponent passer rating on short passes (under 15 yards) and 28th on deep passes (15+ air yards, 19.8% worse than league average)
Fantasy: Mike Evans gets to face a defense that allowed 16 touchdown passes of 25+ yards last season. Yes, that led the league. In fact, it was more such scores than the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers, and Giants allowed combined.
Betting: No team that is at home this week has a worse cover rate in front of their home fans since the start of 2022 than the Buccaneers (31.3%).