Vikings vs. Lions Prediction, Pick: Who wins in Week 13?

One team is clinging to playoff hopes while the other looks for its first win. Here's our pick and prediction for Vikings vs. Lions.

The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will face off in a divisional battle between two franchises in different places on the contention spectrum. Minnesota continues to play in close games, posting a 5-6 record while maintaining playoff hopes. Detroit is playing for the first overall pick, as they bring an 0-10-1 record into this game. You can find the NFL odds with a Vikings vs. Lions pick and prediction below.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions pick, prediction | Week 13

  • Spread: Vikings -7 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Vikings -300, Lions +235
  • Over/Under: 47

Minnesota and Detroit are both dealing with injuries to their star running backs. Dalvin Cook is expected to miss the next two games, leaving Alexander Mattison to take on the workhorse role. On the other side, D’Andre Swift’s status is up in the air at the moment. If he’s ruled out, Jamaal Williams will take over as the lead back for Detroit.

Mattison is a clear downgrade from Cook, although it may not be a major one. He’s seen 20+ carries in four career games with Cook out, averaging 108 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns. He added 19 receptions for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 targets in those contests. Mattison clearly boasts the ability to play like a high-end workhorse running back, meaning Minnesota’s offense shouldn’t take a significant step back this weekend.

No one will question the pure talent difference between Swift and Williams in Detroit. With that being said, Williams has worked as a solid running back when given a bigger role throughout his career. This is a larger downgrade than the one in Minnesota, although Williams will be able to handle his own, regardless of game script.

Vikings vs. Lions betting trends

Minnesota has found success against the spread (ATS) this season, recording a 6-5 ATS record through 11 games. They’re beating the spread by 0.6 points per game.

Detroit is in one of the more precarious positions. They boast a 7-4 ATS record this season, although they’re failing to cover the spread by 2.6 points per game. They’re one of two teams (Miami Dolphins) who boast an ATS win rate over 50% while also owning a negative ATS +/- this season.

The Vikings have been in shootouts more often than not in 2021, finding the over in 54.6% of their games.

That hasn’t been the case for the Lions, who’ve hit the under in 72.7% of their contests, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this year.

Vikings vs. Lions prediction

The Lions are expected to go winless this season, and this isn’t a game in which I could see them pulling off the upset. Although the Vikings have allowed opposing teams to stay in their games, often losing after owning large leads, the Lions don’t have the firepower to keep up with their offense.

The injury to Cook could hurt them down the road, but Mattison should take on a big role with plenty of success against a bad Detroit defense.

The Vikings have quietly covered well on the road, and I anticipate that continuing with a double-digit win against the Lions this weekend.

Vikings vs. Lions Prediction: Vikings 27, Lions 17


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