Week 17 of the fantasy football season is upon us, but what can you expect from a player in Tyler Lockett who has frustrated fantasy managers at times this season. Let’s take a look at Lockett’s season so far, the situation in Seattle, and his Week 17 outlook in fantasy leagues.
Tyler Lockett has been frustrating despite his success in 2020
If you drafted Tyler Lockett for the 2020 fantasy season, chances are it has been a mixed year for you. While Lockett ranks 13th overall at the position in PPR and 14th in standard, there is a lot more to the story. On a per-game basis, Lockett ranks 16th in PPR and 19th in standard formats. However, starting Lockett this season has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.
Lockett’s performances have bounced all over the place in 2020
Let’s start with PPR formats and break down Lockett’s season. On the positive side, Lockett has scored over 20 fantasy points three times. In one of those he topped 50 points, and in another, he reached 37. On top of those three performances, he has scored double-digit fantasy points five more times. However, seven times this season, Lockett has scored less than 10 fantasy points.
Lockett’s three highest-scoring weeks account for 111.7 (48%) of his total fantasy points in 2020. In the remaining 12 games, he has scored just 52% of his overall fantasy points. In those 12 games, Lockett has averaged just 10 fantasy points per game. 10 fantasy points per game in PPR formats would rank Lockett as tied for the 57th most points per game this season.
That underlies the problem for Lockett’s fantasy managers perfectly. When he is good, he is amazing. When he is bad, he is outside of WR4 territory.
Tyler Lockett’s high ceiling still makes him a valuable fantasy asset
While Lockett has been infuriating, his high ceiling and semi-regular double-digit returns make him valuable. Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score is based not only on players’ consistency but on their ceiling as well. Lockett’s upside and ceiling mean that he ranks 12th at the position in our consistency score. That may seem high given what we just discussed.
However, having a player that is slightly inconsistent but can score highly is more valuable to your fantasy team than a player who consistently scores 5-10 points.
What gives Lockett his high ceiling his ability to make the most of every opportunity. Our Fantasy Points Differential (FPD) metric breaks down how efficient a receiver is compared to an average receiver seeing the same opportunities as him. In 2020, Lockett has an FPD of 14%. In comparison to the last two seasons that is relatively low, but it translates to Lockett gaining close to two more fantasy points per game than an average receiver. That is an extremely valuable skill to have.
Tyler Lockett is the 1B in the Seattle Seahawks passing offense
Only two players in the Seahawks offense have seen more opportunities than Lockett. Chris Carson has 174 total opportunities, while D.K. Metcalf has 120. At 118, Lockett is clearly seeing the same amount of looks as Metcalf, but yet his teammate ranks sixth in fantasy points per game and fourth in our Consistency Score.
Metcalf has a higher average depth of target than Lockett
When it comes to average depth of target, Metcalf is averaging 3.7 more yards than Lockett. That makes a significant difference when talking about fantasy points. In total, Metcalf has 242 more yards before the catch than Lockett. That translates to 24.2 more fantasy points for Metcalf, simply due to the additional depth on his targets.
In terms of depth of target, Lockett ranks 73rd. Interestingly, he is just one spot behind Stefon Diggs, who has an ADOT of 10.3. However, Diggs has another 40 targets entering Week 17 than Lockett.
Seattle spread their red zone targets around
Tyler Lockett has eight touchdowns on the season and six have come on targets in the red zone. That is more red zone touchdowns than any other Seahawks player. Lockett has turned 46% of his red zone targets into touchdowns. That number is only bettered by Chris Carson.
However, the problem for Lockett is that he has seen just 13 targets. No receiver for the Seahawks has more than 15 targets (Metcalf). Four players have more than 10 red zone targets, and seven have more than five.
What should you expect from Tyler Lockett in Week 17?
With a reasonably tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17, what can we expect from Lockett this week?
San Francisco presents a tough test for opposing receivers
Tyler Lockett is facing a repeat of the matchup where he returned his second-lowest fantasy points of the season. In Week 8, Lockett managed just 7.3 fantasy points against the 49ers. He pulled in four catches for just 33 yards.
In both formats, the 49ers allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game. In PPR, they also rank as the ninth-hardest matchup for wide receivers according to Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (D-PAC). In standard formats, the 49ers are the fifth-tough matchup for receivers according to D-PAC.
It is tough to sit Tyler Lockett, simply because the ceiling is so high. Additionally, the Seahawks are one team with plenty still to play for, so they should play hard. However, fantasy managers need to be prepared that in Week 17, Tyler Lockett may be about to disappoint them once again.
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