After a dismal rookie season, Trevor Lawrence has been on the QB1/2 border each of his last two seasons. However, fantasy football managers expect more. Will things improve in 2024? What does Lawrence’s projection look like?
Trevor Lawrence’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 17.0
- Passing Yards: 4,120
- Pass TDs: 20.3
- Rushing Yards: 338
- Rush TDs: 3.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Lawrence This Year?
Evaluating Lawrence has always been a struggle for me. It really puts into perspective how much first impressions and initial feelings can influence future assessments.
When Lawrence was still in college, he was considered the best prospect since Andrew Luck. I never understood it. I never saw it. Sure, he wasn’t a bad prospect. But a generational talent? In my mind, not even close.
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Then, Lawrence went and had one of the worst rookie seasons of all time from a No. 1 overall pick. Based purely on that alone, it would be easy to dismiss him. As we all fondly remember, Lawrence did have extenuating circumstances that negatively impacted his debut season, specifically the single worst head coach in the history of professional football.
While the rough situation as a rookie undoubtedly had a deleterious effect on Lawrence’s development, it’s now been two years. Where is this potentially great quarterback?
Lawrence has averaged 17.9 and 17.3 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. His career touchdown rate is just 3.3%. He threw 14 interceptions in 16 games last season while throwing a mere 21 touchdowns.
Fantasy managers who drafted Lawrence in the top six at the position got all of two top-six finishes the entire season. Lawrence didn’t hit 20 fantasy points in a single game until Week 11, which started a four-week scorching hot stretch of 32.2, 25.6, 25.1, and 20.4 fantasy points. Lawrence only had two other games over 18 fantasy points all season.
Is there any reason to think things will be significantly better this season? Calvin Ridley being gone will help, as should the addition of Brian Thomas Jr. This offense does project to be better than it was even in 2022 when Lawrence really only had Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to throw to.
I do have Lawrence projected for the best season of his career, throwing for 4,306 yards and 23.2 touchdowns. However, he still only comes out to 18.05 fantasy points per game, which projects out as the QB15. I’m a bit higher than the PFN consensus projections on Lawrence, which put him as the QB17. Neither has him as a fantasy starter, though.
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Lawrence’s ADP sits at QB17, which is lower than my projections and the PFN consensus projections, but above my QB18 rank.
Ultimately, this is a talent thing for me. I don’t think Lawrence is good enough to be anything more than a back-end QB1. He’s certainly not deserving of being anyone’s lone starter. But even as a backup, or if you waited way too long on a quarterback, there are a handful of QB2s with more upside than Lawrence. Therefore, Lawrence is not someone fantasy managers should target this season.