The fantasy hype surrounding Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s third year in the NFL unfortunately did not produce the results many were hoping for in 2023. This prompted the organization to significantly retool the team’s receiver room this offseason.
After failing to live up to fantasy football expectations last year, is Lawrence an excellent candidate for a bounce-back season in 2024?
Should You Select Trevor Lawrence at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 122nd Overall (QB17)
- Disappointing 2023 Season: Lawrence’s 2023 campaign saw him throw for 4,016 yards and 21 touchdowns, with another 339 yards and four scores on the ground. However, these numbers were a step back from 2022, as he threw for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions, resulting in a QB13 finish.
- Lackluster Fantasy Performance: Lawrence struggled to meet expectations, producing just two 300-yard passing games and three multi-touchdown performances. His early-season struggles were particularly glaring, ranking as QB19 through the first 10 weeks, which left many fantasy managers disappointed.
- Turnover Issues: Lawrence’s 14 interceptions and 12 fumbles were concerning, though not all were solely his fault. Poor pass protection contributed to his fumble totals, as he was frequently knocked down despite getting the ball out quickly.
- Offensive Additions: The return of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, along with the addition of vertical playmakers Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, should help elevate Lawrence’s game. Thomas, in particular, has the potential to be a dynamic deep threat, offering Lawrence the tools to improve in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Lawrence’s current ADP of QB17 reflects a cautious approach from fantasy managers after his 2023 struggles. He’s being drafted after Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and rookie Caleb Williams, making him a potential value pick if he can bounce back.
- Final Verdict: Despite the disappointing 2023 season, the additions to Jacksonville’s offense and Lawrence’s talent make him a strong candidate for a bounce-back year. His current ADP presents a draft-day value opportunity for fantasy managers willing to bet on a return to form in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Trevor Lawrence
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Lawrence is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
20) Matthew Stafford, QB | Los Angeles Rams
21) Deshaun Watson, QB | Cleveland Browns
22) Baker Mayfield, QB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23) Will Levis, QB | Tennessee Titans
Trevor Lawrence’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
On the surface, 4,016 yards and 21 scores through the air with another 339 yards and four scores on the ground doesn’t feel like a catastrophic fantasy season for a quarterback. Yet, when I tell you that Lawrence threw for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions last year than he did in 2022… why Lawrence’s 2023 campaign felt like such a disappointment to fantasy managers becomes clearer.
Lawrence was serviceable as a fantasy option with a QB13 overall finish in 2023, but he never felt like the elite option many were hoping for heading into last year. He produced just two 300-yard passing performances and three passing-touchdown tallies last season.
For a player many spent fifth-round draft capital on last year, this likely led to many of those fantasy managers who invested in Lawrence missing the playoffs, unless they were lucky enough to find a better fantasy option on the waiver wire.
To give you an idea of how rough it was for fantasy managers who kept blindly rolling Lawrence into their starting lineup last year, he was the QB19 in fantasy football — trailing Geno Smith — through the first 10 weeks of the NFL season.
These struggles were compounded by Lawrence failing to take care of the football last year, throwing 14 interceptions and fumbling the ball 12 times in 16 games.
Am I suggesting he’s as reckless with the football as Jameis Winston? No, some of these turnovers require some context. In fact, two of those interceptions went right through the hands of Tank Bigsby.
Additionally, the offensive line didn’t exactly help his fumble totals by allowing Lawrence to get knocked down 42 times despite his average pocket time of 2.2 seconds — which was the second-lowest mark behind Tua Tagovailoa — which suggests Lawrence was getting the ball out of his hands quickly but still getting hit quite often because of breakdowns in protection.
Fortunately, both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will be returning this year for Lawrence. Yet, the biggest factors that could help Lawrence elevate his game to the next level is the addition of two vertical playmakers on the outside — Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis.
Davis is a volatile producer, but he should be just fine as a fourth option in the passing game for Lawrence. The real wild card is Thomas — who has all of the physical tools at 6’3”, 209 pounds alongside 4.33 speed — to be a special playmaker for Lawrence on the vertical plane.
Calvin Ridley was serviceable in this role, but he didn’t look like a true alpha WR1 in this offense. Thomas has the physical tools to potentially improve upon what Ridley provided last year, if the rookie can prove effective in expanding his route tree from what we saw at LSU.
Either way, I see the additions the team made for Lawrence in the passing game as big positives for his fantasy outlook in 2024.
Is Lawrence a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The fantasy depth at the quarterback position is so formidable that the ADP for a player like Lawrence is currently sitting at No. 122 overall as the QB17 off the board. For some additional context, Lawrence is currently being drafted after Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and rookie first overall pick Caleb Williams.
If we are going strictly by what Lawrence did in 2023, then this ranking certainly does make some sense. Yet, the context of him battling through injuries, multiple starting receivers going in and out of the lineup due to injuries, and the slightly disappointing season from Ridley, it does give Lawrence some wiggle room to justify his drop in production in 2023.
The addition of two vertical playmakers to this offense actually makes me still very optimistic about Lawrence having his best fantasy year in 2024, which makes him a nice draft day value.