The top tight end in most fantasy drafts for years has been Travis Kelce. Even after a down year in 2023, most expected a bounce-back campaign for the future Hall of Famer with more weapons among his supporting cast.
But after a one-catch, 5-yard performance on Sunday against the Bengals, Kelce is in the midst of one of the worst stretches of his career. Below are five stats that explain Kelce’s struggles through two weeks.
All stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Why Has Travis Kelce Struggled in Fantasy To Begin 2024?
14.6% Target Rate
Targets are currency in fantasy football, and Kelce has not received his usual volume.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, Kelce has been targeted on at least 21% of his routes every season. Through two games, that’s down at 14.6%. For context, Kelce has never been targeted on fewer than 19% of his routes in a season.
Clearly, Kelce will be targeted at a higher level than he’s seen so far. Greater volume is the first step to Kelce returning to the top fantasy tight end option.
48% Rushing Rate
One reason for the reduced volume? Mahomes simply isn’t throwing as many passes as usual.
Despite playing two nail-biters to begin the season, the Chiefs have run the ball on 48% of their plays. In their first six seasons with Mahomes at QB, they’ve never run the ball on more than 39% of their plays in a season.
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Even though Kansas City typically plays from ahead, Andy Reid has always had a pass-first play-calling mentality. From 2018-23, the Chiefs dropped back to pass 59% of the time when leading, the highest rate in the NFL.
It’s unlikely Reid has suddenly become a run-first coach, so the Chiefs’ offense as a whole should return to a more pass-heavy approach as the season goes on.
0 Red Zone Receptions
Kelce has only been targeted twice in the red zone, catching neither pass. Obviously it’s difficult to score if you never catch a pass in scoring territory!
From 2018-23, Kelce ranked second among all players in both red-zone targets (128) and catches (82), trailing only Davante Adams in both categories.
Kelce has always been Mahomes’ go-to target near the end zone, and there’s little reason to believe that won’t return at some point this season. However, part of the culprit has also been the team’s performance in the red area.
40% Red Zone TD Percent
The Chiefs have only scored a TD on two of their five red zone drives to begin the season. They’ve never been below 54% in any of their full seasons with Mahomes at quarterback.
Part of this is a chicken-or-egg discussion: are the Chiefs struggling in the red zone because they’re not targeting Kelce as often, or is Kelce struggling to score because the Chiefs’ offense isn’t functioning at its usual levels in the red area?
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Either way, both will likely resolve themselves soon, given the Chiefs’ otherwise improved offense (2.47 points per drive in 2024, up from 1.99 in 2023).
6.9 Air Yards Per Target
Kelce is no one’s idea of a deep threat, but his fantasy value would also be helped with better target depth. So far, he’s averaging 6.9 air yards per target, which would be his second-lowest in a season under Mahomes.
Last year’s target depth was actually his lowest at a 6.7 aDOT. But Kelce was far more efficient on those short targets, catching 77 % of his targets. Currently, he’s down at 57% for his catch rate, which would easily be his career low (full season low was 68% in 2017).