If you’re planning to make Super Bowl 57 prop bets for Sunday’s mind-bending, heart-throbbing, eye-twitching Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles matchup, you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Every Super Bowl is unique. But this one seems to have enough fascinating storylines to fill a book.

There’s much more discussion about the running backs, wideouts, tight ends, defenses, kickers, coaching staffs, etc. We’ll get to some of that shortly. For now, I’m betting on a closely fought contest between two explosive offenses and one elite defense that, perhaps, is good enough to contain the most accomplished twentysomething quarterback of his era.

The following prop recommendations assume a roughly 26-20 Chiefs victory. But the longer I study this game, the harder it is to underestimate the game-breaking potential of Hurts and his near-elite trio of receivers.

Jalen Hurts Player Props

I don’t know if Hurts will hit 200 or closer to 300 passing yards. Much hinges on his three best pass catchers, each of whom ranks among the top yards-after-catch receivers in the league.

If KC’s defense can limit their damage after the catch, then we might see something closer to 200 passing yards. But a coverage mistake could hand Hurts 60+ passing yards on one play.

True, this could happen in any game featuring any QB-receiver tandem. But the after-the-catch dominance of the Eagles’ receivers is the X-factor, and normally I don’t recommend betting on 50/50 propositions.

As a result, I’d opt for stats that Hurts has more control over: the damage he can do on the ground.

• Rushing yards over 49.5
  (-110) — FanDuel
• Score a rushing or receiving touchdown
  (Even) — FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes Player Props

Mahomes might struggle to move the ball. Might. This isn’t like facing the Jaguars or Bengals. Philly nearly broke the NFL record during the regular season with 70 sacks. They yielded the fewest passing yards (3,057), and the second fewest per game in the past three years.

MORE: Super Bowl Results Based on Starting QB Age — Trends for Bettors

I have little doubt the experienced Mahomes — and, for that matter, a very experienced Chiefs team that’s returning to the Super Bowl for the third time in four seasons — will not be overwhelmed. But “playing well” is a far cry from dominating. I would temper expectations.

• Passing yards under 294.5
  (-110) — FanDuel
• Passing touchdowns under 2.5
  (-215) — FanDuel
• Rushing yards under 19.5
  (-118) — FanDuel
• Score a rushing or receiving touchdown
  (+500) — BetMGM

Miles Sanders Player Props

Miles Sanders has earned the heaviest workload of his career. For context, he netted 301 combined carries in 2020 and 2021. But this year — including the postseason — he’s already at 287. In his last six games, he’s averaged below 4.0 yards per carry, which is unusual for a guy who’s averaged 5.0 for his career.

I don’t doubt Sanders’ talent — he’s one of the most underappreciated starting running backs in the game. But with a title on the line, he needs to come out big early. Otherwise, it’s quite possible that he’ll be phased out, especially with Hurts and the highly capable Kenneth Gainwell well-positioned to carry the load if needed.

• Rushing yards under 61.5
  (-110) — FanDuel

Isiah Pacheco Player Props

Is rookie Isiah Pacheco the long-term answer in Kansas City? Possibly. And yet, the former seventh-round draft pick isn’t guaranteed a heavy workload on Sunday.

Pacheco’s averaged an elite 3.2 yards before contact, thanks in part to a superior offensive line. Yet, among running backs with 90+ carries, only Kenyan Drake has fewer broken tackles, while Pacheco’s 1.7 yards after first contact is pedestrian at best.

MORE: Pro Football Network’s Super Bowl 57 Picks

Although Philly hasn’t been better than middling against the run, Pacheco would need sizable volume to clear his prop lines. With Jerick McKinnon looming and Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, I’m not comfortable betting on Pacheco to sustain his recent workload or production.

• Rushing attempts under 11.5
  (-125) — BetMGM
• Rushing yards under 48.5
  (-115) — DraftKings

A.J. Brown Player Props

A.J. Brown is the No. 2 wideout in yards after the catch. The Eagles traded for him because they understood the importance of giving Hurts a formidable receiving corps now rather than later — that this was the time to strike.

Brown has delivered beyond lofty expectations, including closing out the regular season with 95+ receiving yards in five of his final six games. In three of those games, Dallas Goedert was back in the fold after missing time with an injury. So this was not a case of Brown filling a sudden vacuum. Instead, it was Brown being Brown.

I expect him to play big on Sunday. Because at its core, this game is why the Eagles acquired Brown.

• Receiving yards over 71.5
  (-120) — DraftKings