Top Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Lineup: Can We Trust D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard?

    Here is our recommended Cowboys vs. Lions DFS lineup based on likely game-script analyses for their NFL Week 7 Sunday matchup.

    Top Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Lineup: Can We Trust D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard?

    If you’re playing a Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

    The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

    Cowboys Considerations

    Since Week 2, we’ve had to contend with the middling DFS play of Cooper Rush. No knock on Rush, who’s performed admirably in relief of Dak Prescott. But this isn’t time for mushy talk. Rush has averaged 191 passing yards and one TD per start this season. That doesn’t inspire DFS confidence in him or his receivers, especially given how pricey guys like CeeDee Lamb are.

    So Prescott’s impending return changes our DFS calculus completely, particularly with the hapless Lions defense on deck. I’ll go on record predicting 40+ points for Dallas. We’ll need to be strategic about which expensive players and fliers to invest in.

    For example, can we trust Dallas’s D/ST against a very capable Lions offense? Well, we saw how effective this unit was against Philly on the road last weekend. They kept the Bucs and Bengals under 20 points. If we can go small with one player, we might be able to eke out four high-upside Cowboys in this slate.

    Lions Considerations

    Coming off their bye, the gradually healing Lions are touchdown underdogs for good reasons. Everything I touted about Jared Goff and this passing attack over the summer could go out the window in Weeks 5 and 7. Two tough road matchups spelled trouble. Better days lie ahead. But “ahead” is the key.

    There’s little doubt Goff and his core offensive weapons will be priced about the same as their Dallas counterparts. This is one of the exposable flaws of DFS — something we can use to our advantage. For example, if Prescott is priced at $10,000 (hypothetically) and Goff at $8,000, then it assumes Prescott will score about 25% more DFS points than Goff.

    I believe if this game were played 10 times using the same personnel across 10 successive weeks, Prescott would outperform Goff at least eight of those times, and perhaps nine or 10. And that outperformance usually would exceed 25%.

    The ripple effect should be clear. If I’m all in on Dallas blowing out the Lions, then this DFS lineup should weigh heavily toward the Cowboys. Perhaps we snag a somewhat cheap No. 3 WR from Detroit, but going big on the Lions would come at the expense of the higher-upside Cowboys. That won’t fly.

    Top Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Lineup

    Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.

    The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

    MORE: Top Cowboys vs. Lions Player Props

    After some deep thought and deep breathing, I’d recommend Prescott ($10,200 normally, $15,300 as Captain) in our Captain slot. He’s reportedly stated that he’ll return when he’s at an “A+” health level. So as long as there are no setbacks, he should shake off the rust fairly easily against Detroit.

    We’ll tack on Lamb ($10,400) and the Cowboys D/ST ($5,000). Then there’s the question mark at tight end. We could roll with Dalton Schultz ($4,800) if he’s healthy or rookie Jake Ferguson ($4,200) if Schultz isn’t quite ready. I’ve toyed with several lineups with one or the other, and this final lineup is designed to accommodate either one under the salary cap.

    If you’re counting on your fingers (kudos) or in your head (even better), then you know we have only two slots remaining. I’m steering clear of Detroit’s backfield because I’m anticipating a severely negative game script. And since the reverse (positive game script) is likely for Dallas, I’d include Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) and T.J. Hockenson ($5,400).

    B.J. Rudell is a betting and fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here and follow him on Twitter: @BJRudell.

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