If you’re playing a Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
10/22/22 Update — With Brett Rypien officially starting over the injured Russell Wilson, we’d recommend the “contingency” lineup outlined near the bottom of this article.
When a 32-year-old RB on a 1-3 team’s practice squad transitions to the starting job on a 2-3 team only two weeks later, it forces us to re-think everything we think we know about football betting.
Well, not really. This is Latavius Murray, after all. He hasn’t finished below 4.1 yards per carry since 2017 and has always been at least a serviceable pass catcher. Still, it’s shocking that he leapfrogged both Melvin Gordon III and Mike Boone in one night. And based on his performance (15-66 rushing line and one catch for eight yards), he’ll probably remain atop the depth chart.
This is important, because the Broncos are a bottom-third passing team in this league, and they’re facing a Jets defense that’s comfortably above-average in pass defense and run defense. Russell Wilson suffered a hamstring injury on Monday night after already dealing with an ailing shoulder. If we can’t trust any high-priced DFS Broncos receiver (or even a cheap one), then Murray might be our best bet — and perhaps our only bet — if the price is right.
Let’s keep this simple. New York is facing an elite pass defense. Zach Wilson hasn’t gotten going yet, and frankly, it might take him several more weeks, if not all season.
This is shaping up as a Breece-Hall-or-bust DFS lineup. There are no other reliable options. Why pay $2,000 for a desperation TE when we can pay, say, $9,000 for a 15+ RB with blowup capabilities?
Because the levels of each team’s defense and passing games, we might lean heavily into their D/STs, which would also free up cap space to land a couple more (potential) 14+ point options.
Top DFS Lineup for Broncos vs. Jets
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Let’s jump right into this lineup. Hall ($10,800 normally, $16,200 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. In a potential defensive battle, he stands out as nearly defense-proof. We’ll trust he can hit 12+ points.
We’ll pair him with Michael Carter ($5,000), whose relative affordability makes him an intriguing hedge in 50/50 competitions. And even in tournament play, he has a proven RB2 ceiling even when Hall is cooking.
These final four spots might seem strange, and they include one contingency. For now, let’s roll with Russell Wilson ($10,200) and Zach Wilson ($9,200). The question is whether we trust any Denver RB or receiver to crack 10 DFS points. For that matter, can any Jets receiver hit double-digits?
This is the quandary we’re facing. Courtland Sutton seems “fine.” So do Jerry Jeudy and Garret Wilson and Corey Davis. Greg Dulcich could get 2-3 more catches. But if this is as defensive a battle as it appears to be, we either go with the QBs, or we add the lower-ceiling kickers. I’d rather go big with the QBs.
And that leaves enough funds for the Broncos D/ST ($4,400) and Jets D/ST ($3,800). Would we be surprised if there were a defensive or special-teams TD in this game? Probably not. Both units are solid bets for 10+ points.
Now, if Russell Wilson can’t suit up, then I’d switch gears a bit. Out would come Wilson and Carter, replaced by two of Denver’s three RBs: Melvin Gordon ($7,400) and Latavius Murray ($7,600). The thinking here is that backup QB Brett Rypien would operate conservatively against New York’s formidable D, dumping off many passes to his backfield.
Why not Mike Boone? A good question with no great answer. Last weekend he had only two touches as Murray took over the lead role. Why? If Boone were ready to take over, that would have been the time, as Gordon took an extended seat on the bench. Instead, this remains a hot-hand backfield, and Gordon and Murray seem to be the best Week 7 bets.
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