It’s easy to get caught up in all the action from Week 1 of any NFL season. After months of speculation and projection, it’s understandable that we might overreact when we finally get to watch live action that means something.
Now that the dust has settled (except for Monday Night Football), let’s try to sort out what was real from Sunday’s games and run through the five biggest overreactions from Week 1, beginning with an NFC South blowout.
NFL Week 1 Overreactions
Overreaction | Are The New Orleans Saints Really This Good?
Derek Carr, Dennis Allen, and the New Orleans Saints are facing a make-or-break 2024 campaign — and they got things started on the right foot.
Carr was rarely pressured and sacked just once while making the most of new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. He missed on only four of 23 attempts while averaging 8.7 yards per dropback and tossing three touchdowns. Carr ended the 2023 season on a hot streak and has posted a QBR above 85 in four of his last five games dating back to last year.
Meanwhile, New Orleans’ defense was outstanding on Sunday, holding Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to a 10.7 QBR, the second-lowest mark in the league in Week 1. The Saints sacked Young four times and picked him off twice, while Carolina managed just 193 yards of offense on 3.5 yards per play.
Kubiak’s Kyle Shanahan-influenced offense should be a breath of fresh air after deployed former Saints play-caller Pete Carmichael’s stale scheme in 2023. New Orleans’ defense is littered with playmakers, especially in the secondary, where corners Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor posted excellent performances on Sunday.
However, the Panthers are probably the NFL’s worst team. They should’ve had the No. 1 pick in April’s draft had they not traded it to the Chicago Bears in order to land Young in 2023. They’re dead last in Pro Football Network’s Week 2 Power Rankings.
The Saints might be better than we thought, but New Orleans’ Week 2 contest against the Dallas Cowboys will represent a stiffer test.
Overreaction | Can Kirk Cousins Hold Off Michael Penix Jr.?
Kirk Cousins’ first game with the Atlanta Falcons couldn’t have gone much worse. After inking a four-year, $180 million contract this offseason, Cousins completed just 16 of 26 attempts for 155 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in an 18-10 season-opening loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Still, it’s far too early for Atlanta to consider benching Cousins in favor of first-round rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. One game doesn’t make a season, and there are reasons to think Cousins and the Falcons will improve moving forward.
According to TruMedia, the Falcons lost more expected points added (-15.37) off of turnovers than any other NFL team in Week 1. In 2023, there were only 38 games all season in which a club lost at least 15 expected points by turning the ball over.
Cousins’ first-quarter interception came when he threw off his back foot and tried to jam the ball inside to Drake London, who was double-covered. His second pick was arguably more brutal; it came with Atlanta down five points and just over three minutes remaining in regulation after the Falcons were set up with a 1st-and-10 at their own 40-yard line.
But Atlanta’s most comical error came in the third quarter when center Drew Dalman’s shotgun snap hit tight end Ross Dwelley, who was motioning from left to right in front of Cousins. The Steelers recovered at the Falcons’ 38-yard line, costing Atlanta at least three points.
It’s difficult to imagine those mistakes continuing. Cousins didn’t play during the preseason, so Week 1 represented his first live action with London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and the rest of Atlanta’s skill group. He should only get more comfortable in first-time Falcons OC Zac Robinson’s scheme as the season progresses.
As ESPN’s Field Yates noted, Atlanta used a shotgun or pistol formation on 95% of its snaps in Week 1. An under-center run game (and corresponding play-action looks) was supposed to be a crucial part of the Falcons’ offense.
Atlanta’s decision to keep Cousins away from the line of scrimmage could signal that the 36-year-old isn’t fully recovered from his 2023 Achilles injury. His health will be a situation to monitor when the Falcons face the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.
Overreaction | Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold Is Back
Give it up for Sam Darnold, who did just about everything that was asked of him in his first start as the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback.
Darnold completed his first 12 passes in Minnesota’s 28-6 win over the New York Giants, finishing 19 of 24 for 208 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He hit Justin Jefferson for a game-high four completions but otherwise spread the ball around, connecting with eight different receivers in Sunday’s victory.
Darnold was pressured on 42.4% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in Week 1, per TruMedia and PFF. While he threw his only interception under duress, Darnold also completed five of nine attempts for 54 yards and a TD while pressured. When he was kept clean against New York, Darnold averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, third-best this week behind only Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
Will Darnold become the next in a long line of late-bloomer NFL quarterbacks? It’s possible, especially now that he’s set in the best offensive environment of his career.
But it’s worth remembering that the Giants have one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. And while New York DT Dexter Lawrence II was a force as usual, edge rushers Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux were rarely heard from on Sunday.
This was the easy game for Darnold and the Vikings, but things are about to get much more challenging. If Darnold is still thriving after facing their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule (SF, HOU, GB, NYJ, DET, LAR, IND, JAX), we’ll know he’s for real.
Overreaction | The Cincinnati Bengals Are Toast After Week 1
Although the Cincinnati Bengals have regularly been in the playoff mix with Joe Burrow under center, starting fast isn’t exactly one of Cincinnati’s strengths.
After losing to the 8.5-point underdog New England Patriots on Sunday, the Bengals are now 1-10 in the first two games of the season since Zac Taylor became the club’s head coach in 2019.
As Pro Football Network’s Jay Morrison writes, only two other teams have fewer than three wins in Week 1 and Week 2 in that span: the Panthers (2-9) and the New York Jets (2-8, with their opener still to come Monday night).
Cincinnati’s loss to New England highlighted its struggles defending the run, but it’s hard to pin Sunday’s loss on any unit other than the offense. Despite enjoying the first fully healthy training camp of his NFL career, Burrow looked rusty. The Bengals went three-and-out on their first three drives before tight end Tanner Hudson fumbled at the goal line before halftime, costing Cincinnati seven points.
The Bengals’ offense managed 10 points in the second half but posted another three-and-out after getting the ball back down by six with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Burrow and Co. never saw the field again.
Cincinnati’s offense rarely felt in sync against the Patriots. Ja’Marr Chase, already frustrated by his contract negotiations with the Bengals, was upset after getting only six targets on Sunday. Cincinnati posted just two explosive plays (one pass, one run); the Chicago Bears were the only other team with as few big plays in Week 1.
Getting hot after a slow start is nothing new for the Bengals, who won eight in a row to close the 2022 regular season before advancing to the AFC Championship. They lost that matchup to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, whom they’ll have to defeat this week to avoid another 0-2 start.
Overreaction | 2024 Rookie QB Class Stinks
It’s easy to forget at this point, but C.J. Stroud’s 2023 NFL debut wasn’t anything to write home about. He finished 22nd in QBR, took five sacks, and led zero touchdown drives in a 16-point Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last year.
You remember how things went after that. Stroud threw two TDs in each of his next three games, set a single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards and five scores against the Bucs in Week 8, won a playoff game, and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Even though all three rookie quarterbacks struggled on Sunday, we have to take their performances with a grain of salt.
Caleb Williams was the only rookie signal-caller to emerge with a Week 1 win, but he needed two TDs by Chicago’s defense and special teams to beat the Titans. The No. 1 overall pick averaged just 3.2 yards per attempt and finished third-worst league-wide in compilation percentage over expectation (-16.1%).
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels averaged 7.7 yards per attempt as a passer and added 16 carries for 88 yards, but the Commanders still lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points. Meanwhile, Denver Broncos rookie Bo Nix fulfilled every offseason narrative about his penchant for short passes, managing just 138 yards on 42 attempts.
Unsurprisingly, pressure was an issue for the NFL’s three rookie QBs. Williams, Daniels, and Nix collectively completed just nine of 26 attempts for 44 yards (1.7 YPA) under pressure. When kept clean, they completed 48 of 69 attempts for 371 yards (5.4 YPA).
No one expected Williams, Daniels, or Nix to be perfect in their NFL debuts. All three should hone their strengths and improve their weaknesses as the season progresses.
Checking in around Week 8 might be a better idea than gauging this year’s rookie QB crop off of one game.