Top 10 quarterbacks and wide receivers via PFN’s Offensive Value Metric

Now that we have passed Week 8 of the NFL season, we have enough data to present our first installment of PFN’s Offensive Value Metric (OVM) weekly rankings for quarterbacks and wide receivers. The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to measure how important a player was to their offense. Each week, I will be ranking the top 10 players at quarterback and wide receiver using their OVM grades from the previous week’s slate of games.

Before we get started, it is important to remember that these lists are not measuring players by their overall talent (those of you who’ve already taken a peek at this week’s QB1 will understand why this clarification is necessary). One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily mean they are a strictly better player; rather, it is a reflection of how influential they are in their offense’s success. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the top ten quarterback and wide receiver performances from Week 8.

Top 10 quarterbacks in Week 8 based on OVM | #1-5

#1 Nick Mullens, San Francisco 49ers: 36.59

There are a number of caveats to Mullens’ performance against the Seattle Seahawks. He came into the game in relief of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, and as a result, played less than one quarter of football. At that point, the 49ers were already down 23 points, so Seattle’s defense might have taken their metaphorical foot off the gas a bit. That said, Mullens played remarkably well in that situation. He completed an impressive 72% of his passes, 5.3% higher than expected, and threw the ball an average of 8.1 yards downfield.

#2 Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 36.46

Like most rookies, Burrow has had something of an up-and-down season. However, in the last two weeks, he has been incredibly valuable to the Bengals’ success, and this week it resulted in an upset victory over the Tennessee Titans. His completion percentage of 70.3% was 10.9% higher than expected, the best differential of the week. He was also the league’s most aggressive quarterback, throwing the ball into tightly contested windows 29.7% of the time.

#3 Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 31.61

The Chargers might have fumbled away yet another victory on Sunday, but it is difficult to be critical of Herbert’s performance. He succeeded in much the same way that Burrow did, throwing into tightly contested windows a high percentage of the time (23.3%) and completed passes at a rate 8.4% higher than expected. The team might be struggling overall, but Herbert is giving fans hope.

#4 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: 30.78

Green Bay has had a rough three-week stretch, losing badly to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and being bested by the hapless Minnesota Vikings. However, while Rodgers played very poorly in the first of those two games, his performance this week was one of his best since Week 4. He threw the ball further downfield than any other player on this list in Week 8, averaging 9.5 intended air yards, and, like Burrow and Herbert, he often threw the ball into tight windows, at 24.4%. However, his completion percentage numbers were slightly worse, which is why he doesn’t rank quite as highly as they do.

#5 Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers: 30.24

Although the Panthers failed to best the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Bridgewater still put forth one of his best performances so far this season. While his box score statistics might be the worst of any player on this list, his advanced metrics are far more impressive. Unlike some of the players above him, he doesn’t have a true standout statistic and instead performed at an above-average level across the board, from his completion percentage metrics to his intended air yards, to his aggressiveness. It was an excellent all-around performance from the veteran quarterback.

#6 Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 29.84

Mahomes is arguably the most gifted quarterback in the NFL, and he was also one of its most valuable against the New York Jets. The Jets are the NFL’s worst team, and Mahomes had a relatively easy time completing passes, throwing into tight windows just 4.8% of the time. However, his high completion percentage of 73.8% and 9.4 average intended air yards indicate that he did an excellent job of taking advantage of the space that New York gave him.

#7 Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 29.19

Wilson might have cooled off statistically in recent weeks (relatively speaking), but he has still consistently been one of the most valuable quarterbacks in the NFL. He completed 73% of his passes on Sunday, the third-highest percentage last week, a number that was 6.9% higher than expected, a differential that was again third in the NFL. His other metrics weren’t quite as impressive, but his completion statistics alone were enough to get him on this list.

#8 Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 28.91

Tennessee suffered an embarrassing loss to the Bengals on Sunday. However, Tannehill is still providing high value to the team. His grade this week was slightly lower than his season average, but still a solid performance even in defeat. Keeping him from ranking higher on this list was his completion percentage, which was 2.8% lower than expected, making him the only player on this list to complete a lower percentage of his passes than expected to make the top ten in Week 8.

#9 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: 28.08

The Falcons are in a downward spiral and are likely to miss the playoffs for a third consecutive season. However, Ryan remains a lynchpin in their offense. For the most part, his advanced metrics were unremarkable, although his completion percentage was relatively high, at 70%, and was exactly what was expected according to the NFL’s calculations (a rare occurrence). He also averaged 8.7 intended air yards, which ranked inside the top ten this week.

#10 Drew Lock, Denver Broncos: 26.78

Going into last weekend, there was a lot of pressure on Lock to produce. He had thrown four interceptions to zero touchdowns during the previous two weeks, and many were beginning to doubt his ability to lead the team going forward. Fortunately for him, his impressive second-half comeback against the Chargers silenced many of his critics, at least for now. The most influential factor in creating his high  OVM grade was the amount of resistance he faced; Lock threw into tight windows 22% of the time and still performed well on numerous other metrics.