If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns for this week’s eye-popping Thursday Night Football faceoff, then welcome to our Week 14 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for the Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
TNF Anytime TD Scorer Predictions | Week 14
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Davante Adams (-150) — DraftKings
No player in this game has a less favorable betting line than Davante Adams. In other words, betting on him to score produces the worst financial return.
But … it helps to average one TD per game in a top-heavy offense facing a defense yielding 1.5 TD receptions per game. Adams and Josh Jacobs have accounted for a combined 73% of Vegas’ offensive touchdowns. As the league’s top receiver these past five weeks, Adams seems like a safe bet.
Mack Hollins (+235) — DraftKingss
Derek Carr threw to two WRs last weekend. That’s right: only two. Adams was one. You can guess the other was Mack Hollins.
In fact, the last time the Raiders targeted more than three wideouts in a game was in Week 8, when the sickly Adams caught only one pass for three yards en route to a 24-0 blowout loss. Since then, Adams and Hollins have been targeted on 100 out of 110 pass attempts to WRs. Simply incredible.
This is truly one of the most top-heavy passing attacks in recent NFL history, at least while Hunter Renfrow remains shelved. I’m all in on hedging my Adams anytime TD bet with a Hollins anytime TD bet. And the reality is, both might score.
Derek Carr (+800) — BetMGM
Carr had six rushing scores from 2018 to 2020. Last year, he attempted a career-high 40 carries but with no TDs. This year? A career-high 4.5 yards per carry, but again, no TDs.
That’s why his anytime-TD betting odds are so steep. With Jacobs and Adams on the team, Carr just needs to throw and hand off, right?
I’m seeing tonight a little differently. The opposing Rams are among the stingiest against the run. Assuming Jacobs doesn’t run wild (or at least, that’s my belief for several reasons), there’s an opening for Carr to capitalize on a goal-line score — something the Rams probably won’t expect from a QB who hasn’t run one in for two years.
Van Jefferson (+350) — BetMGM
I wish these odds were a bit more favorable, but I love the matchup. Unlike Vegas, LA has a lot of middling and slightly better-than-middling scoring options this evening. The speedy Van Jefferson should be able to capitalize against one of the NFL’s more porous pass defenses.
I also like that both of his scores this season have come inside the 8-yard line. Historically more of a deep-ball threat, Jefferson has been forced to step up in the red zone due to injuries to his teammates.
Tutu Atwell (+550) — BetMGM
If you told me right now that one player in this game would catch an 80-yard bomb for a touchdown, believe it or not, I’d guess Tutu Atwell over Adams. Sounds crazy, right?
Look, as expressed earlier, Adams is on fire. His last nine scores have been from 25+ yards out. Surely he’ll find the end zone.
But I would argue Atwell has more big-play potential tonight. The Rams have given up the second-fewest 25+ yard receptions this season (13). The Raiders have yielded the ninth-most (23). Atwell is faster than Adams, and frankly, he matches up really well against Vegas.
I believe we’re about to witness Atwell’s second career touchdown.
Raiders D/ST (+850) — DraftKings
The Rams D/ST is one of only eight that hasn’t yet scored. Last year, all but two teams had at least one TD. The year before, all but four teams. The year before that, all but two. And so on.
Interestingly, the Raiders D/ST scored its first touchdown in three years earlier this season, breaking the longest streak in recent D/ST history.
I wanted to bet on LA to break their own dry spell. And they’ve forced three more turnovers than the Raiders have. But instead, based on the odds, I believe the Raiders are the better wager.
The Rams have committed the fifth-most turnovers (19), while Vegas is tied for the second-fewest (11). LA has a less experienced, more mistake-prone unit. Although longshots, the Raiders D/ST has some appeal for ambitious bettors eyeing a flailing Rams franchise trying to do too much — and getting burned.