If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns for this week’s scintillating Thursday Night Football faceoff, then welcome to our Week 13 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for the New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
TNF Anytime TD Scorer Predictions | Week 13
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Josh Allen (+200) — FanDuel
The Patriots have surrendered only one rushing TD to opposing RBs and only two total RB TDs (both are NFL lows). They’ve stared down the likes of Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Aaron Jones. All three came up empty.
As a result, I’m not excited to bet on Devin Singletary or James Cook. Among the 30 RBs with the most red-zone touches, Singletary has the fifth-worst TD conversion rate (4-of-33), making his +155 anytime-TD odds too risky.
And Cook (+355) hasn’t established himself enough in this offense to be even a relatively safe wager.
Josh Allen leads Buffalo with five rushing scores. If they get near the goal line, there’s an excellent chance either he, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, or Dawson Knox will find the end zone. As we’ll see shortly, since I believe the Bills will score at least three times, I’m comfortable betting on these four guys.
Stefon Diggs (+120) — FanDuel
Not a bad payout for one of the league’s top receivers. The Patriots have given up a healthy 15 receiving TDs.
Yet, some perspective is needed. Five of their opponents are in the bottom 11 in receiving yards, and a sixth (the Colts) trotted out Sam Ehlinger at QB while Jonathan Taylor was out with an injury.
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So . . . more than half of New England’s opponents have had weak passing attacks.
Sitting on nine TDs and counting, Diggs has a great shot at finding the end zone Thursday night.
Gabe Davis (+200) — FanDuel
A nice hedge alongside Diggs, and with a better line. And let’s face it: we shouldn’t be surprised if Diggs and Gabe Davis (five TDs) score.
Dawson Knox (+330) — FanDuel
Despite thriving in many areas on defense, the Patriots have struggled to contain opposing tight ends, as they’ve yielded the NFL’s second-most TE scores (eight). Perhaps even more interestingly, New England has given up a TE score on 16% of TE receptions. That’s the worst mark in the league.
While Dawson Knox has cooled considerably since racking up nine TDs last season, he has some of the best TE hands in the game, amassing an impressive 78.6% catch rate. He has yet to drop a pass, continuing to improve in an area where he struggled as a 2019 rookie (10 drops).
Rhamondre Stevenson (-115) — DraftKings — Do Not Bet
I’m expecting Buffalo to play their best football in weeks against a hit-or-miss Patriots squad that might be wishing they traded impending free agent Damien Harris before the NFL deadline. New England historically has boasted deep backfields. But with Harris expected to miss this one, Rhamondre Stevenson will have to carry the load.
Sounds promising, right? The Pats’ other three RBs — J.J. Taylor, Kevin Harris, and Pierre Strong Jr. — have combined for only 15 touches this season. This is not the old days when we might see two or even three New England RBs try to overpower opponents on the ground and through the air.
But here’s the thing. In college, Stevenson had a career-high 119 touches in his suspension-shortened senior year in 2020. He earned 147 touches as an NFL rookie last season. This year he’s already up to 201, which is tied for eighth in the league.
The opposing Bills have given up 10 TDs to opposing RBs, or slightly less than one per game. Meanwhile, among the 30 most active RBs in the red zone, Stevenson is well below average in TD conversions (4-for-28).
Again, this setup is key to recognizing the risks and opportunities for betting on Stevenson. No doubt, the Pats will try to establish the run, and he’s the only player they can realistically use. As a result, his betting line assumes better than 50-50 odds. He’s expected to score.
But in the belief Buffalo’s strong run D will scheme against Stevenson and force Mac Jones to try to beat them, I would urge bettors to fade this opportunity.