Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson tore both his ACL and MCL in Week 16 last season and enters training camp with an unknown timeline. The recovery process is one thing, but the offense he rejoins is not the one he left.
Should fantasy football managers avoid the wide range of outcomes altogether, or is Hockenson worthy of a speculative pick for those with a late-season run in mind?
Should You Select T.J. Hockenson at His Current ADP?
ADP: 110th Overall (TE13)
As things stand, Hockenson is holding a 10th-round ADP, ranking near Brock Bowers and Dallas Goedert as the most popular answer to the “I waited to address the position. Who am I opening the season with as a starter” question.
Early in drafts, I target talent/role. Late in drafts, I look to execute my plan in terms of roster construction. It’s going to be rare that I land on Hockenson this season because drafting him will require you to use two roster spots on the position, something that I rarely do.
If your roster has deep benches, I’d consider buying talent like this in the back half of the draft. Hockenson’s role on this offense appears safe, though I would caution you against assuming that the volume repeats. The Vikings were sixth in pass rate over expectation a season ago with a trusted signal-caller in Kirk Cousins.
I expect that rate to trend closer to average, and given my unwillingness to shave anything off of Jefferson’s target share, that makes Hockenson a tough sell.
Hockenson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Hockenson’s value in your draft will hinge on the most recent health reports. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Hock is slated to open the season on the PUP list (physically unable to perform) and return somewhere around Halloween.
At 27 years old and coming off of his best season across the board (catches, targets, yards, and fantasy points), I’m not worried about Hockenson’s physical ability. The recovery will factor into that at some level, but he’s at the peak of his career, and we know he has the skills to produce big fantasy numbers.
THE MONSTER DAY FOR TJ HOCKENSON CONTINUES
Touchdown!!#NFL #Saints #SKOL #NOvsMINpic.twitter.com/Odt0P0qRUh— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball)
Another factor to consider is the presence of an elite WR1 who needs to be fed. The thought process of wanting your tight end to challenge for the team lead in targets is logical, but just look back at last season for proof that tight ends are more than capable of producing strong numbers next to an alpha.
- Sam Laporta finished as TE1, Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as WR4
- Travis Kelce finished as TE2, Rashee Rice was WR8 from Week 12-18
- George Kittle finished as TE5, Brandon Aiyuk finished as WR12
- David Njoku finished as TE7, Amari Cooper finished as WR15
- Cole Kmet finished as TE8, DJ Moore finished as WR9
You get the idea — Justin Jefferson’s presence shouldn’t be held against Hockenson in any way.
When it comes to evaluating Hockenson for 2024, I’d would have preferred McCarthy to play this season but I’m not getting too hung up on that, as I’m going to have a below-average quality of target projection for him regardless.
When it comes to a comparison, 2021 provided us with a few similar situations. Hunter Henry was the New England Patriots’ featured tight end for rookie Mac Jones, and Kyle Pitts was the go-to option under a past-his-prime Matt Ryan who would retire just 12 months later.
That season, Henry ran hot with his scoring rate (touchdown on 18% of his receptions) while Pitts led the Atlanta Falcons in catches and targets. I’m not optimistic that either of those things will occur for Hockenson in 2024. Even with those bumps, neither Henry (TE9) nor Pitts (TE12) was locked into weekly lineups.
I think that ranking is a reasonable expectation for Hockenson in 2024 when active, so if we’re penciling in a month-plus of missed time, his current ADP makes plenty of sense.
