Titans vs. Texans Prediction, Pick: Can Davis Mills and Co. play spoiler in Week 18?

The Titans can clinch a first-round bye with a win over the Texans. Here's our Titans vs. Texans pick/prediction for Week 18.

The Tennessee Titans can clinch the No. 1 overall seed, giving them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs along with a first-round bye with a win here. The Houston Texans will be looking to ruin their division rival’s fun, as they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for multiple weeks. In this article, you’ll find the NFL odds along with our pick and Titans vs. Texans prediction for this weekend.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans pick, prediction | Week 18

  • Spread: Titans -10.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Titans -525, Texans +385
  • Over/Under: 43

Which Houston team shows up?

The Texans are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, outside of beating the Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston owns wins over Tennessee and the Los Angeles Chargers. These games weren’t overly close either, as the Texans beat them by 9 and 12, respectively.

Houston also has some terrible losses this season. They lost to the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers by a combined 22 points. The Texans also own three losses to the Indianapolis Colts (x2) and Buffalo Bills by a total of 99 points. They were outscored 102-3 in those games.

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Houston’s won two of their last three games, including a matchup against the Chargers. They’re coming off of a loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who were starting rookie quarterback Trey Lance.

It’s safe to say they’re one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, but they’re also a team I wouldn’t necessarily love to play in an important game.

Titans vs. Texans betting trends

Tennessee’s been one of the better teams in the NFL against the spread (ATS). They’ve covered in 62.5% of their games, and they’re covering by an average of 3.6 points per game.

Houston hasn’t been as successful thus far. They’ve only covered the spread in 43.8% of their contests. Houston’s failing to cover by an average of only 0.3 points per game.

With that being said, Tennessee’s covered the spread in three of their last four games. Houston’s quietly covered in two of their last three.

Tennessee and Houston have both found the under more often than not this season. They’ve each hit it at a 56.3% rate thus far. The Titans are finding the under by an average of 3.1 points per game, while the Texans are hitting it by 2.2.

Titans vs. Texans prediction

It’s difficult to project the Texans because of their ability to knock off top teams but also lose to some of the worst in the NFL. Davis Mills likely impressed enough to keep his job through next season, but this will be a great showcase game for him.

I do expect the Titans to come to play this week. They can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC and a first-round bye with a win, which would be a major feat with the Kansas City Chiefs sitting right behind them.

Tennessee should get the job done, but this game could stay close. I truly don’t expect a 10-point win, though. I expect them to either blow out Houston or play within a one-possession game. Nonetheless, that isn’t a bet I want to make, so I’d lean more toward the under than the spread at this point.

Titans vs. Texans Score Prediction: Titans 21, Texans 13