Week 2 is in the books, and now things are getting really real. It’s time for Thursday Night Football, and if you’re making Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prop bets for Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
Browns vs. Steelers prop bets to target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Mitch Trubisky prop bets
From a pure production standpoint, both teams’ starting QBs — one temporary, and the other likely temporary — have very low ceilings compared to most NFL starting quarterbacks. This has the makings of a run-heavy contest, where both sides carefully choose their moments to throw downfield.
On the losing end of a blowout, we could envision Jacoby Brissett or Mitch Trubisky airing it out. But I believe this game will remain tight, and that should impact the final passing numbers.
Brissett over 17.5 pass completions (-115) — DraftKings
Brissett over 0.5 interceptions (+110) — DraftKings
Brissett under 198.5 passing yards (-115) — DraftKings
Trubisky under 207.5 passing yards (-115) — DraftKings
Trubisky under 12.5 rushing yards (-110) — DraftKings
Nick Chubb vs. Kareem Hunt vs. Najee Harris prop bets
Nick Chubb clearly is the 1A to Kareem Hunt’s 1B in Cleveland’s backfield. That’s never been a question. But playing on a short week, I believe it’s quite possible that Hunt will play an outsized role, particularly with Chubb already on pace for 350+ touches (which would be a career high).
As for Najee Harris, he thrived last season in large part because of receptions. Also, he compensated for a very low 1.7 yards before contact (defenses came prepared) with an exceptional 30 broken tackles on rushing attempts. That isn’t sustainable. This year he has no broken tackles through two games and is outside the top 40 in yards after contact.
Barring a dramatic shift with the help of an offensive line that might not do any better Thursday night, Harris’s outlook remains concerning.
Chubb over 1.5 receptions (+105) — DraftKings
Chubb over 8.5 receiving yards (-110) — DraftKings
Hunt over 9.5 rushing attempts (-120) — DraftKings
Hunt over 2.5 receptions (+105) — DraftKings
Hunt over 15.5 receiving yards (-120) — DraftKings
Harris under 55.5 rushing yards (-115) — DraftKings
Harris over 2.5 receptions (-180) — DraftKings
Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. Chase Claypool vs. Pat Freiermuth prop bets
Back to the passing game. In Week 1, Donovan Peoples-Jones shined. Last weekend, Amari Cooper took over. It seems reasonable to believe Cleveland’s passing attack is a work in progress, and that one of these receivers will be No. 1 most weeks. Surely, Cooper has the edge. But I’m anticipating at least a modest bounce-back effort for Peoples-Jones.
For Pittsburgh, how many mouths can Trubisky feed? Probably not many, as we anticipated this summer. Pat Freiermuth has one of the highest floors of any non-elite TE, while Chase Claypool’s best days (in Pittsburgh at least) will remain behind him until this team installs a top-14 NFL quarterback.
Peoples-Jones over 2.5 receptions (-105) — DraftKings
Claypool under 3.5 receptions (-155) — DraftKings
Claypool under 39.5 receiving yards (-115) — DraftKings
Freiermuth over 3.5 receptions (-170) — DraftKings