The next dynasty QBs who should get long term contracts

In dynasty fantasy football, we always have to keep our eyes on the horizon to see what’s coming next. If you want to build a strong dynasty team, you need to play both the short game as well as the long game. That’s why the recent Patrick Mahomes extension was so big for dynasty leagues. An NFL team locking up their stud QB for ten years is not something you see every day, and it really helps boost that players’ value from a dynasty standpoint as well. So let’s take a look and see which NFL quarterback long term contracts are on the horizon and how we can use that info for our own benefit in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty values for the next NFL quarterback long term contracts

Our own Cole Thompson reviewed which NFL quarterback long term contracts were likely to come next, so let’s look at the top three options to see how that would change their value, if at all, in dynasty leagues.

Deshaun Watson, QB Houston Texans

Leading up to the draft, rumors were swirling that wheeling-and-dealing Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien might be interested in moving on from their young signal-caller. After they traded away perennial dynasty stud DeAndre Hopkins, it felt like moving Watson too might actually make sense for the team, depending on what they could get in return. Instead, a trade never materialized and Watson remained on the team, but that uncertainty left a bad taste in a lot of mouths.

Back in December 2019, Watson’s dynasty ADP per DLF was 37th overall. As the postseason played out and Hopkins was dealt, Watson saw his ADP slip a little, reaching a low of 66th overall in April 2020. Clearly, dynasty owners were getting nervous. Was Watson worth an NFL quarterback long term contract? Without his top options to throw to, was he still a top-five dynasty QB?

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Clearly, the talent is there, but if the Texans really want to show their support for him and offer a long term extension to Watson, it might make sense to do that sooner rather than later. However, there’s no real reason for the Texans to hurry things along. Watson is only set to earn about $4.4 million in 2020, but his base goes up to $17.5 million in 2021 as a fifth-year player.

To me, that’s still underpaying for the talent that Watson has shown on the field. If there’s an extension coming from the Texans, it’s unlikely to come before the 2022 season, meaning we all have at least two more seasons of drama to look forward to with them.

What if Watson gets traded, though? That could definitely increase his paycheck and make his dynasty managers very happy at the same time. If a struggling Chicago Bears or Jacksonville Jaguars team decides to go after Watson this next offseason, they could wind up talking about a long term extension as a part of that deal.

Depending on the team, Watson’s dynasty value should easily see a rise in the Mahomes tier, but until we have more info, it’s hard to speculate. At the very least, it’s hard to imagine Watson’s value slipping much further, even with all of the uncertainty around him.

Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys

The name next on everyone’s list for a long term extension is easily Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Leading up to this recent July 15 deadline to sign franchise-tagged players, everyone was waiting to see what Jerry Jones and the Cowboys would choose to do. Would they force Prescott to play on the tag for $31.4 million, or would the two sides come together at the eleventh hour to get a deal done?

Since Prescott was drafted a year earlier than Watson, and three rounds later, the Cowboys didn’t have a fifth-year option to exercise. Instead, they opted to sign stud running back Ezekiel Elliott to a monster extension through 2026 and up and down wide receiver Amari Cooper to an extension through 2024. Locking up these two key pieces definitely, makes sense for the franchise, but what about Dak? Doesn’t he deserve something similar?

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Obviously, no deal was made and Prescott is expected to play on his franchise tender, but there is still a lot of chatter that a longer-term deal will get done before Prescott becomes a free agent. Jones is one of the few owners that loves signing his stars to long term deals, and also one of the owners that can do so without worrying about the stability of his franchise.

The Cowboys aren’t going anywhere, and neither should Prescott. I don’t see him playing anywhere else, largely because Jones won’t allow it. Prescott will eventually earn his own NFL quarterback long term contract in due time.

Turning to Prescott’s dynasty value, his ADP per DLF has been steadily on the rise, reaching it’s peak this month, July 2020, at 47th overall. Clearly, dynasty managers see the writing on the wall in terms of his talent and want the Cowboys QB to be their franchise quarterback as well. At this point, the only thing that could change Prescott’s stock is if he were to play for another team, but that’s highly unlikely given what we know today.

Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore Ravens

The only quarterback currently going ahead of Patrick Mahomes in dynasty leagues is third-year phenomenon, Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s DLF ADP as of July 2020 was 22 to Mahomes’ 24, meaning they are pretty much going at the same place in mock startup drafts at the moment. Dynasty managers love Jackson’s rushing upside as well as the fact that the stout Baltimore Ravens offense flows entirely through him.

The main difference between Jackson and the other quarterbacks mentioned is that his salary is significantly lower than his colleagues’. Thanks to Jackson being the 32nd overall pick in 2018, he is only set to earn $2.6 million in 2020, which is a steal for a quarterback of his caliber.

Jackson is also the youngest of the group at 23, so a ten-year extension is definitely possible based on his talent and current situation combined. It’s hard to see the team locking him up to something just yet, but if Jackson plays at all like he did last season, it will be a no brainer in no time.

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Since dynasty managers are already drafting him alongside Mahomes, it’s hard to imagine Jackson’s value getting much higher. These two are likely going to be the best two quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The only way his value changes is due to injury and those are impossible to predict.

Even though he’s a running quarterback, there is not much evidence that being mobile makes him more injury-prone than any other signal-caller. Draft Jackson with confidence, and don’t be afraid to buy high if you’re trying to trade for him. His dynasty value is as insulated as possible thanks to his ability to score fantasy points in so many ways.

All of these NFL quarterbacks deserve long term contracts in my eyes, so it’s only a matter of time before their own teams come to their senses. Buy all three with confidence, and reap the championships that come from doing so.

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Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering the NFL and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF.