Happy Holidays to all of our readers! Nothing beats the combination of family, food, and football. Well, adding some winners to that combination would definitely make all that food sit a little more comfortably. This week, Chris Smith and I have a teaser and one parlay that will hopefully make your Thanksgiving all the more enjoyable. Thanksgiving always brings three games, and this year we get the Chicago Bears traveling to the Detroit Lions before the Dallas Cowboys host the Buffalo Bills, and finishing up with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the New Orleans Saints. Let’s take a look at our 2019 Thanksgiving NFL picks.

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“I have a few different angles here. Let’s start with favorites being the way to go on Thanksgiving. In the last 41 contests, the favorites are 30-11 ATS, including going 3-0 last season. The Bears line is creeping higher than I would like, but I think they can win this game by a touchdown. The Saints should be out for revenge, and I can see them winning this game by around 10 points.

My issue falls with the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have won just two games on Thanksgiving since 2013. Both of those were against the same team, the Washington Redskins. In their last eight contests, the Cowboys are 1-7 ATS, and I think they fall to 1-8 in this one against a Bills team that will not simply roll over. Therefore, I am going to go with a “party parlay” with the favorites to cover in games one and three, and the underdog getting the points in the middle game.”

0.5u – Bears -5.5, Bills +6.5 & Saints -6.5 | +600


“Prevailing wisdom is “fading the public” at all costs with regards to NFL betting. The one exception to that rule is on Thanksgiving. Favorites have covered the spread on Turkey Day at an astonishing 73% the last 15 years. The Cowboys and Saints are primed to keep this trend going on Thursday. Here is my official “Two Team, Two Unit, Turkey Day Teaser!”

The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss in Foxboro and while they haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record yet, they have kept it close against the upper echelon of the league in those matchups. Dallas measures favorably against the Buffalo Bills in nearly every advanced metric. I faded the Bills twice so far this year in similar spots and was right on both occasions. Ezekiel Elliot is due for a huge game and the Buffalo defense is ripe for the picking. I like Dallas to bounce back and cover the touchdown in this one. Having to just win outright is an added bonus in this spot.

The Saints were embarrassed at home by a one-win Atlanta Falcons team just two weeks ago. The Falcons were coming off a bye that week and fighting for coach Dan Quinn’s job. New Orleans will not be caught off guard this time around in primetime on Thanksgiving night. The Falcons were able to get out to an early lead and pressure Drew Brees into six sacks and no touchdowns. No chance that happens again this time. Even with a banged-up right side of the offensive line, expect Sean Payton to game plan ways for Brees to get rid of the ball early and take advantage of a healthy Alvin Kamara on screens and in the flat. Grab the Saints & Cowboys (-1 or PK each) in this one and don’t be afraid to sprinkle some dressing on a parlay as well. Let’s eat!”

1u – New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys 6.5-point teaser

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