The Houston Texans‘ passing game was the fantasy football darling of last year, with both Nico Collins and Tank Dell being regular starting options at wide receiver.
This year, they have added Stefon Diggs, but are there enough opportunities for all three receivers to be fantasy-relevant this season?
Let’s examine the outlooks for Collins, Diggs, and Dell to see whether all three of them can provide value on their draft-day price
Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 261.2 (171.0 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 90.2
- Receiving Yards: 1317.2
- Receiving TDs: 6.4
Collins’ 6’4” frame is exactly what we want from an alpha receiver in this offense with a franchise, pass-first QB. As the clear-cut WR1 in 2023, Collins felt inevitable, as he was efficient in the targets he earned (73.4% catch rate) and recorded a 23+ yard grab in 13 of 17 games, including the playoffs.
Collins is coming off of draft boards as a fringe fantasy WR1 in the late third round of drafts. That lands him after young pedigree options in Chris Olave and Drake London and ahead of veteran receivers like Deebo Samuel and Diggs.
Collins’ draft-day cost is right around that of Michael Pittman Jr. While they are different players, I think that’s the right price range. Both are upside WR1s with a young quarterback in offenses that we expect to finish in the top 10 in most categories. Collins has the more refined passer but also more target competition, making this a coin-flip call for managers.
I don’t think there’s a wrong answer. Expecting significant growth from Collins is tough due to the number of mouths to feed, but repeating 2023 (80-1,297-8) is very much in play. That would be just fine for how he’s being treated.
I have Collins ranked as a WR1 and will be investing with consistency at his current price.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 232.0 (147.9 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 84.1
- Receiving Yards: 1017.0
- Receiving TDs: 7.7
After joining the Bills in 2020, Diggs immediately posted the best season of his career, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. He established himself as a high-floor, high-ceiling WR1 and a perennial first-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Diggs followed up his 2020 season with 16.8 and 18.9 fantasy points per game. Despite his consistent strong production, Diggs wasn’t being valued as highly as he should’ve been entering the 2023 season. As a result, I was targeting Diggs everywhere.
Things were looking great for the first nine weeks. Diggs wasn’t his usual elite WR1 self — he was better. Diggs was averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game, well on his way to the best season of his career. Then, the Monstars showed up and zapped all of his talents.
From Week 10 through the end of the season, Diggs averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. Forget starting him. Had we known in Week 9 that this is what Diggs was going to do the rest of the season, he would’ve been dropped everywhere. That’s how bad it was.
Compounding the complexity of solving the Diggs riddle is the massively increased target competition. He goes from being the undisputed WR1 with no real threat to his volume to competing with Nico Collins and Tank Dell for targets.
Diggs is not going to see a 30% target share on the Texans. He may not even get to 25%. While C.J. Stroud’s targets are worth a lot, it’s not as if Diggs is leaving a rough QB situation.
In my humble opinion, Diggs’ WR18 ADP (No. 37 overall) is straight lunacy. While Collins is correctly the WR1, I would take Dell before Diggs as well.
Between the target competition and the risk that Diggs is just done, I cannot justify even considering Diggs before the fifth round. At the 3/4 turn, he’s not even remotely in consideration.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Tank Dell Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 211.1 (151.0 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 60.1
- Receiving Yards: 907.2
- Receiving TDs: 9.0
Dell’s rookie campaign may have come to a premature end due to injury, but there is no way that his first year in the NFL can be seen as anything but a major success.
Dell’s 47 receptions for 709 receiving yards and seven TDs on 75 targets in just 11 games played flashed the potential for a big-time fantasy producer.
Dell’s WR39 finish in full-PPR formats last year requires a bit more context. Dell was actually the WR19 on a points-per-game basis at 15. If you filter his numbers down to the eight games where he saw north of 60% of the offensive snaps, Dell averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which puts him in the same range as Puka Nacua and just below Justin Jefferson.
Despite his smaller frame at 5’10”, 165 pounds, Dell lined up in the slot 22% of the time, which feels like a lower rate than you would expect for a player his size.
Yet, his average depth of target of 14.3 yards — which was the 12th highest at the WR position last year — suggests he can be an effective vertical threat operating outside or in the slot. His 2.36 yards per route run was also a great mark, which ranked 14th amongst qualified WRs.
Dell’s ADP is No. 62 overall as the WR29 off the board. He is being selected ahead of Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and Rashee Rice.
An early sixth round pick makes Dell the cheapest Texans’ WR to acquire of the top three options in the Houston passing game a full two rounds in fantasy drafts.
Dell may fall into the category of a better real-life football player than a fantasy producer in this Houston offense, but his flashes of great production his rookie year make him the most inexpensive way to get a share of this Texans’ passing attack in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
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