If you’re making Texans vs. Colts DFS picks for Sunday in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Texans vs. Colts DFS picks
Today we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Texans DFS considerations
Can rookie Dameon Pierce build off of a strong camp to help lead 2021’s league-worst running game? He’s one of the three highest-profile and most interesting DFS plays for a rebuilding Houston franchise. The other two are Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. This should be a top-heavy offense to begin the season, with about 60-65% of the offense running through this trio.
Meanwhile, Davis Mills has a tough task facing a stout Colts defense. He also faces an uphill battle to keep his starting job into 2023 and 2024. Despite increasingly competent play last season, Mills could be one of the league’s lowest-ceiling QBs. A likely negative game script should keep him throwing in this one, though with hit-or-miss results.
Colts DFS considerations
Indianapolis has an even more formidable trio in Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and offseason addition Matt Ryan. The team returns after a disastrous loss to the Jaguars stymied their postseason hopes. They’re now on quarterback No. 4 in the four years since Andrew Luck’s early retirement. Will Ryan be the offensive difference-maker — the piece this team has been missing the past two seasons as they seek to win the AFC South title?
The Colts will probably knock on the Texans’ end zone at least four times, making their “big three” very strong DFS options. If you’re looking for a tertiary player, I’ve been betting on the underutilized Nyheim Hines to return to glory. He’s too talented to be relegated to background noise in a Taylor-dominated backfield. Taylor’s efficiency dropped significantly (by his standards) as last season wore on. Hines realistically could see 8+ touches on Sunday.
Recommended DFS lineup
Who doesn’t love spotting cheap, high-upside DFS options? I’m talking now about Pierce. No, not that Pierce. Colts rookie Alec Pierce ($1,200 normally, $1,800 as Captain). As Ryan’s likely No. 2 receiving option (or No. 3 if Hines returns to greatness), Pierce brings some of the most value of any Week 1 DFS player. Although it’s always risky to bet on non-elite rookies in their first NFL games, I’m willing to take a chance on Pierce, given his skill set, potential usage, and the matchup.
This move frees us to invest in several expensive, high-ceiling players like Taylor ($12,200), Pittman ($10,200), and Brandin Cooks ($9,600). All three should be heavily featured in this one. I’m also recommending the “other” Pierce (Dameon, at $8,400) in the belief that he’ll be utilized enough in the passing game to maintain a sizable floor, even against a stout Colts defense. And Hines ($7,600) rounds out the lineup. As I’ve been saying publicly since last year, when he was somehow phased out of the offense, don’t sleep on Hines in 2022.