The Houston Texans will face the Detroit Lions in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Texans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud, QB
I’m not sure what is more encouraging for C.J. Stroud this week, the hopeful return of his WR1 or the projected game script of what could be the most fantasy-friendly contest of the week.
It doesn’t matter.
Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three). He was a top-10 QB in two of his first four games this season, a form I like him to get back to this week as long as reports around Collins remain optimistic.
As for the matchup, the Lions are better defensively than you assume from a rates perspective, but they do give up volume due to the efficiency of their offense; that is what we, as fantasy managers, are ultimately concerned with. In Collins’ healthy games, the Texans cashed in 72.7% of their red-zone trips, a rate that has tanked to 47.4% since.
I went over the impact of having a pedigree receiver last week in my “Blame NFL Teams for Failing Young Quarterbacks” piece, and the same logic translates here. Stroud hasn’t been usable for a month now but deserves to be in your lineup as long as Collins returns — both things can be true.
Joe Mixon, RB
For running backs like Joe Mixon, we know there is risk involved. He has over 2,000 career touches and joined a new franchise this offseason after spending his first seven years with the same one. In these spots, we usually settle for quality or quantity for touches and go our merry way with low-end RB2 production.
That’s not at all the case here. Since returning from injury …
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectations
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectations
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectations
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectations
Mixon has found paydirt in all four of those games. Mixon has a 20+ yard rush in all four of those games. Mixon has cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
He’s been great, and I think he will continue it through this week as the Texans’ best defense against the potent Lions might be their run game’s ability to keep Houston’s offense on the sidelines. I don’t mean to be a wet blanket, but I do want to provide some words of caution, and you can do with it what you’d like.
All of these fireworks have come with Nico Collins (hamstring) on the shelf. It’s also worth noting that all age cliffs work differently. Last season, we saw Mixon average just 3.5 yards per carry from Weeks 12-17. I’m not calling that predictive, but it is worth keeping an eye on – his yards per carry after contact declined by 19.6% over that stretch compared to the first 11 weeks of the season.
Be happy with what he has given you, and play him with confidence this weekend, but be careful.
Nico Collins, WR
It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …
- 112 catches
- 1,864 yards
- 11 touchdowns
Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.
Tank Dell, WR
Tank Dell’s fantasy production has been stable over the past month (100 yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games) despite plenty of moving pieces around him. He was able to thrive last week against the Jets, turning nine targets into 126 yards while other Texans receivers totaled just 44 yards on their eight looks.
I’m not overly comfortable with Dell filling the WR1 role from a skill-set standpoint, but in this spot, I also don’t like him as the secondary option if we assume Nico Collins returns.
- Cooper Kupp
- Chris Godwin
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- DK Metcalf
- CeeDee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Calvin Ridley
- Jayden Reed
Those are the names of the top-scoring receivers against the Lions this season — all alpha target earners within the context of their specific situations. I’m not sold on Dell as that, regardless of the role he fills.
I’m avoiding chasing his production from Week 9 if I can. This is a boom-bust profile, but if you need to go that direction, this projected shootout could get you home. Still, there’s a lot of risk to consider, even after a strong performance.
Dalton Schultz, TE
It’s one thing to average under three catches per game for 27.1 yards; it’s another to serve up that production on 31.8 routes per game.
Dalton Schultz was one of three Texans to catch a pass last Thursday, but that more speaks to the limited number of options in Houston’s offense than anything it’s starting TE is doing right.
With a deep target in eight straight games, you could squint and find some per-target upside, but that upside has been more theoretical than practical up to this point. With Collins expected back to soak up that downfield usage, Schultz is off of my streaming radar until proven otherwise.
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Insights
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions’ +110 point differential is fourth-best through eight games in franchise history (their best since posting a +144 margin in 1954).
QB: Jared Goff ranks first or second in the league in completion percentage, yards per pass, and passer rating – he faces a defense this week that has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 6.9% of passes.
Offense: The Lions turn the ball over just 0.63 times per game, which is fueling their league-best turnover margin (+1.38 per game).
Defense: The Lions are one of four defenses to rank in the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate (Broncos, Browns, and Chiefs).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite not flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery – the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.
Betting: The Lions have covered eight of their past nine indoor games, including three road games.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have converted just five of 14 red zone trips (35.7%) into touchdowns over their past three games, down from their 75% rate through Week 6 (12-of-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud will likely get Nico Collins back this week, a return that can’t come soon enough.
Offense: C.J. Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three).
Defense: The Texans have the third-worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on 69.6% of opponent trips (league average: 56.7%).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon appears to be aging in reverse.
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectation
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectation
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectation
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectation
He’s found paydirt in all four of those games. He’s a 20-plus yard rush in all four of those games. He’s cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
Betting: Five straight Texan home games (and eight of the past nine) have gone under the total.