Texans vs. Ravens Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the Divisional Round: Can C.J. Stroud Upset Lamar Jackson?

In our Texans vs. Ravens prediction, we review the odds, break down the QB matchup featuring C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson, and give out a best bet.

After the Houston Texans‘ home playoff win over the Cleveland Browns, QB C.J. Stroud and Co. will now face the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line.

A quarterback matchup featuring the presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Most Valuable Player, the Texans-Ravens game has the makings of an exciting game, despite the large point spread.

In our Texans-Ravens prediction, we review the betting lines, break down the matchup, and give out a best bet.

Texans vs. Ravens Odds

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  • Spread
    Ravens -9
  • Moneyline
    Texans +320, Ravens -420
  • Total
    45.5

Texans vs. Ravens Prediction

When we saw these teams play against each other in Week 1, the Ravens took care of business in a 25-9 victory. Stroud looked like a rookie, as he struggled mightily against the Ravens’ defense.

Nineteen weeks later, a lot has changed between these two teams. Still, we shouldn’t take an early-season matchup between these two teams too seriously. I mean, the Buccaneers just beat the Eagles by 23 points after they lost to that same team at home 25-11 in Week 3.

Since their first meeting, Stroud has already ascended to become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, putting together one of the most impressive rookie seasons at the position in league history.

However, one trend that started in Week 1 and carried over for much of the season, was Stroud’s struggles on the road.

  • In eight home games:
    • 6-2 record, 310.8 yards per game, 17 touchdowns, 65.47 completion percentage, 8.94 yards per attempt, 108.3 QB rating
  • In seven road games:
    • 3-4 record, 231.7 yards per game, six touchdowns, 61.99 completion percentage, 7.34 yards per attempt, 91.5 QB rating

Specifically, Stroud performed much worse in his five outdoor games this season, where he threw just three touchdowns in five games and tallied a QB rating of 85.1. Unlike this past week, when he played at home and indoors, Stroud will be going against an elite Ravens defense in Baltimore.

Baltimore is the No. 1 seed for a reason. At 13-4, the Ravens were perhaps the most well-balanced team during the regular season, as Lamar Jackson is on his way to winning his second MVP trophy, and their defense was one of the three best units in the NFL.

Unlike other playoff teams that have already been eliminated, Baltimore dominated its opponents during the regular season, including other contenders. Not only did the Ravens have an NFL-best +203 point differential, they also had five double-digit victories against playoff teams in the Texans, Browns, Lions, 49ers, and Dolphins. They won those games by an average of 20.66 points per game.

MORE: Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the Divisional Round

Simply put, the Ravens are even better than their record indicates and are more than capable of dominating a good team.

The Texans were a surprise playoff team this season and have a very bright future, but I think they’ll be overmatched in this environment.

Stroud and Jackson could be battling it out in the postseason for years to come, but in their first playoff matchup, I think the veteran wins handedly.

Texans vs. Ravens Prediction: Ravens -8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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