It’s fair to say that there’s never been more receiving talent in the NFL than there is now, making it tough for fantasy managers to choose between different wideouts to fill their lineups.
Let’s take a look at two veteran Big Ten alumni who will be squaring off this week, Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin, and determine which one is the better start in fantasy football this week.
Should You Start Terry McLaurin or Chris Godwin This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Godwin is the player to start. His projected 11.6 PPR points include 53.7 receiving yards and 4.88 receptions. That doesn’t seem like a huge stat line, but it narrowly outperforms the consensus projection for McLaurin (11.3 PPR points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see McLaurin narrowly outperforming Godwin rather than the other way around. Given their respective roles within their teams’ receiving corps and the projected game script, it’s hard to imagine Godwin receiving the same volume as McLaurin.
Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be traveling to face McLaurin’s Washington Commanders, but the Bucs are still favored by around a field goal. Godwin has to play second fiddle to the legendary Mike Evans while also fighting off advances from promising rookie Jalen McMillan, whereas McLaurin is the undisputed top option in Washington.
To cap it all off, Godwin isn’t a huge part of Tampa’s goal-line game, as he scored just twice last year. McLaurin isn’t exactly an end zone specialist either, but Washington lacks clear-cut red zone threats like the ones you can find on Tampa’s roster.
McLaurin’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
It would be rash to say that McLaurin has one of the best situations of any top receiver in the league, but few had their circumstances improve more drastically over this offseason. This spring and summer saw wholesale changes across the Commanders organization, with two newcomers set to make a particularly large impact for McLaurin in particular.
One is, of course, the fact that Washington is switching to a new quarterback. The 2023 NFL interceptions leader Sam Howell is being replaced by the second overall pick in the 2024 Draft, reigning Heisman trophy winner Jayden Daniels. There are viable questions about the dynamic rookie’s potential durability, but at least for the moment, he should be a major upgrade and could have a good debut against Tampa’s questionable secondary
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Washington’s offense also has a new mastermind at the helm, Kliff Kingsbury.
He’s had success calling plays for explosive quarterbacks in the past, like Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech and Kyler Murray as an Arizona Cardinal, so expect him to get the most out of Daniels early on — which can only be a good thing for top wideout McLaurin.
Godwin’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Godwin is always going to be a big factor for the Tampa Bay offense, but this year might not be particularly productive. That has less to do with Godwin himself than with changes across Tampa Bay’s organization.
The addition of McMillan shouldn’t be a huge issue, but the rookie should draw at least a few targets per game after an impressive preseason. That’s a stark contrast to 2023 when third wideout Trey Palmer caught 39 passes for 385 yards compared to Godwin’s team-high 83 for a solid yardage total of 1,024.
The air game could regress overall, however, with mastermind Dave Canales leaving town for the Carolina Panthers’ head coaching job.
Tampa was one of the luckiest teams in the league last year in terms of metrics like success rate on early downs vs. late downs — a significant regression indicator even if Canales had never parted ways with the team.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for McLaurin and Godwin in Week 1
Terry McLaurin: Last season wasn’t pretty as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 yards per route run. Bringing in an athletic quarterback is no lock to fix that efficiency problem, but I like the chances of this offense being in scoring positions more often this year than last. That gives their unquestioned top target earner a chance to produce his best season.
Even in an uneven 2023 campaign, McLaurin posted six top-24 finishes (two top-10s). On the opposing sideline is a less-than-intimidating secondary, making his sheer volume of projectable looks worthy of a top-30 ranking. I’d play him in Tampa Bay over the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jayden Reed, two receivers who are on far superior offenses but figure to see 2-4 fewer opportunities.
Starting McLaurin this week is a bit of a leap of faith given how little we know about Daniels at the professional level, but if he is as dynamic on the ground as we assume and his passing grades are near accurate, his WR1 should be able to do enough in PPR formats to reward your trust in a plus-matchup.
Chris Godwin: If this Mayfield offense is actually a house of cards, Godwin stands to lose the most value. I understand that he came on late last season (WR7 in total PPR points from Weeks 15-17, ranking ahead of Tyreek Hill), but he had the lowest slot usage of his career, and that is where a production floor can be established.
With White seeing plenty of those short-yardage targets and Godwin’s role downfield very much unstable, there is more risk than reward in this profile for me, even in a great spot. He ranks just outside of my top 30 at the position — I’d rather bet on offenses I trust more like Green Bay (Jayden Reed), Baltimore (Zay Flowers), or Houston (I wouldn’t blame you for playing three Texans ahead of Godwin!).